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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

NorthGAWinterWx said:
bouncycorn said:
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:

*this is a first guess forecast. Lots of uncertainty and this will change!*

Good evening North Georgia and Metro Atlanta. Since last Thursday, I have been closely following the potential for a winter weather event this upcoming weekend. Confidence is increasing in *some sort of system*. Let me explain.

I hate to modelcast and rarely do it. Model-casting is when you base your forecast off of one model's snowfall projection or even a blend of several models. I feel this is ineffecient because models are constantly changing.

Over the last 48 models, the main models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET) have shown anything from all rain (only one run of one model) to 13-16" of snow for North Georgia (GFS 5 runs). The likelihood of either solution is fairly low but the second holds more validity than the first. I am not, however, going to give you a speal of what models have or do show. I am here to make a forecast, not present models.

I project that much of North Georgia including metro Atlanta will see snowfall on Saturday. The amount, however, is largely in question. The big question is the low pressure placement. I do believe we get a benchmark miller A storm (sciency term for classic snow setup).

I continue to say that I believe some area, which could be anywhere between Macon and Blairsville, will receive the purple colored accumulations, which are 6+ inches. The greatest chance of 6+ inches, however, is the mountains. But there is an equally appealing case that the 6+ inches could be in central georgia, or straight through Metro Atlanta.

At this point, one thing is for certain. That stripe, or the banding deformation zone, will likely setup somewhere in our north georgia/metro atl area if we get the miller A track that I expect.

The biggest thing to get from this post is that everyone in North and Central Georgia needs to stay glued to weather updates, especially tomorrow and afterwords, as confidence increases.

I will also keep you updated with a forecast/discussion every day from here on out (i'll try to post them a bit earlier than tonight)

3846ce8982839a9be6f9be49e52ed557.jpg

484ee8fad0501d4f42fbd4511379105f.jpg



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Who is this from?
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Me. Just posted it on my facebook account and page. https://www.facebook.com/NGAWXalert/
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why do I keep getting PMs for relies to this thread when I am not subscribed to it?
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By default it might send emails for reply. You should be able to turn it off in your control panel/user settings.
 
[font=monospace, monospace]Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 331 PM EST Monday...

Extended guidance continues to differ in the timing and location of
potential winter weather this weekend, which seems to Stem from
handling of short wave energy entering from the Pacific northwest later
this week. While confidence remains low, the more likely scenario
appears to favor a more open wave traversing the Continental U.S. And presenting
with a less amplified, more progressive system moving out of the Gulf
and off the Atlantic coast. The best moisture and forcing will remain
off to our southeast, though there will likely be a tight precipitation
gradient on the northwest side of the system so a few miles can make a
significant difference in where heavy snow may fall Friday night. While
there is the potential for some measurable snow from roughly the
mountains of NC into Southside VA, the more significant accumulations
will reside further to the south and east outside of our area. Again,
this remains a low confidence forecast.[/font]
 
bouncycorn said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
bouncycorn said:
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND:

*this is a first guess forecast. Lots of uncertainty and this will change!*

Good evening North Georgia and Metro Atlanta. Since last Thursday, I have been closely following the potential for a winter weather event this upcoming weekend. Confidence is increasing in *some sort of system*. Let me explain.

I hate to modelcast and rarely do it. Model-casting is when you base your forecast off of one model's snowfall projection or even a blend of several models. I feel this is ineffecient because models are constantly changing.

Over the last 48 models, the main models (CMC, GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET) have shown anything from all rain (only one run of one model) to 13-16" of snow for North Georgia (GFS 5 runs). The likelihood of either solution is fairly low but the second holds more validity than the first. I am not, however, going to give you a speal of what models have or do show. I am here to make a forecast, not present models.

I project that much of North Georgia including metro Atlanta will see snowfall on Saturday. The amount, however, is largely in question. The big question is the low pressure placement. I do believe we get a benchmark miller A storm (sciency term for classic snow setup).

I continue to say that I believe some area, which could be anywhere between Macon and Blairsville, will receive the purple colored accumulations, which are 6+ inches. The greatest chance of 6+ inches, however, is the mountains. But there is an equally appealing case that the 6+ inches could be in central georgia, or straight through Metro Atlanta.

At this point, one thing is for certain. That stripe, or the banding deformation zone, will likely setup somewhere in our north georgia/metro atl area if we get the miller A track that I expect.

The biggest thing to get from this post is that everyone in North and Central Georgia needs to stay glued to weather updates, especially tomorrow and afterwords, as confidence increases.

I will also keep you updated with a forecast/discussion every day from here on out (i'll try to post them a bit earlier than tonight)

3846ce8982839a9be6f9be49e52ed557.jpg

484ee8fad0501d4f42fbd4511379105f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Who is this from?
Click to expand...

Me. Just posted it on my facebook account and page. https://www.facebook.com/NGAWXalert/
Click to expand...
That's a good write up! I did a live Facebook video on my page saying that snowfall accumulations look any where from 2-5" or more. Based off of climatology, North Georgia realistically gets 2 to 3 inches on average. I agree with your early snowfall accumulation map.
 
Wow. Quite the roller coaster ride tonight eh? Seems like it's about that time where the gfs trends toward the euro only for the euro to trend toward a previous solution from the gfs.
 
through 30 euro already looks improved with the northern stream out front and a little more seperation . energy looks much better

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Less interaction, a tad further south. Just as I've said this one looks to be headed for the GFS.

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Bsudweather said:
Less interaction, a tad further south. Just as I've said this one looks to be headed for the GFS.

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it's not near as separated as the gfs but it's an improvement vs it's 12z run no doubt

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Storm5 said:
through 30 euro already looks improved with the northern stream out front and a little more seperation . energy looks much better

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I would agree.


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