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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

18z vs 12z

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I agree. We'd be really disappointed here in extreme northwest ga if that plays out.
 
GFS is south & east/suppressed vs nearly every other piece of guidance available at hand off the SE US, yea I've seen this movie way too many times before. It's comforting to have it to my south & east @ this range because I know it's usually only a matter of time...
 
18z GFS: 2m temps are borderline south and east of ATL-AHN, but they are improved from recent runs. Precipitation ends Saturday morning and all of GA is above freezing by 10am, but incoming high pressure gets us back below feeezing by 4pm and then very cold overnight.
 
Folks keep saying it should shift NW because that has happened in the past, but the GFS seems to be going further south each run.
 
the difference between the models in regards to the handling of the thermal profiles is amazing

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I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.
 
The GFS hasn't been going south with each run, it's practically held steady as a southern outlier vs other guidance. I certainly wouldn't have a problem with its solution, but it's worth mentioning it also tried to pull the same crap over the pacific NW a few days ago with that ULL, where it was virtually by itself (along w/ the NAM (lol)) in keeping the ULL detached from the NS disturbance and defied other guidance even in the short range, and ended up being too progressive with the northern branch system and and we all know how that worked out :)
 
Brick Tamland said:
Folks keep saying it should shift NW because that has happened in the past, but the GFS seems to be going further south each run.
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We still have a few more days for that to possibly occur.  I can't lie, as I do like where I stand (per locale) when it comes to the GFS.
 
I'll be thrilled to get the 2-3" it has for me. That said that 7" line is 30-50 miles south of me. That makes me happy.
 
Aubighitter said:
I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.
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early-January 2002, as well. Not when it comes to inches of snow we received in February '73, but the dynamics of the storm was quite similar.
 
RichardJacks said:
great BMX afternoon disco!
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The models have been trending closer together the past 24 to 48
hours, but some newer data is interesting. Generally speaking, the
model suite is fairly agreeable with the positive tilt trough
dropping into the Mississippi Valley and then into the Tennessee
Valley by Saturday. Only fairly minor timing and height
differences noted. Zonal flow noted ahead of this feature. The
models have a trend of flip flopping in the 4-6 day time frame
before becoming more in line. The latest ECMWF has just trended
back to closer to previous solutions that were warmer. The
GFS/GEFS have continued the trend of plenty of cold air all the
way to Montgomery. Models tend to have difficulty with the colder
airmasses and the extent of the penetration southward. The
thermodynamic parameters amongst the models do not match up but
will have to intensely watch these developments.
 
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
 
snowman72 said:
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
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totally disagree .many eps and gefs members look great for your area. while it might not look good right now there is plenty of time. the solutions we saw today will not be the final solutions. hang in there

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snowman72 said:
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
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I wouldn't give up yet, if it trends north a bit then board wide game om
 
It's pretty remarkable how consistent the GFS has been over the past couple of days. The temps seem like they are ok not long after the precip starts but barely. It'd be above freezing but above freezing can work.

I don't think this will be the final solution. It's a solution that's possible but it doesn't happen often.
 
This may be the first time I love my spot. Euro is north and GFS is south. Meet in the middle and boom. Let's keep this going
 
snowman72 said:
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
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I'm not giving up until the wave comes onshore and we get reliable data for the models to ingest. It's not trending well for us, but there could be some big shifts over the next 24 hours.
 
I def. would not give up on the NW trend...lol...I will say the EURO could easily be right...but I do think the cold press will be more impressive. The moist 700mb, as others have pointed out, should really allow this to blossom further north.
 
Just found the site and wanted to pop in and say well done to the Admin! Great to see so many familiar folks here.

LET IT SNOW!
 
ColaSnow said:
Is the low too far south?  More than likely that's the case, per climatologically.  But, there have a been a handful of times where the low was well into central Florida, per southern snowstorms.
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 Here are some examples of central FL crossovers: 1/2002 (gave ATL ~4.5"), 1/1992 (gave south ATL metro 5"+ of SN), 2/1973 (the huge snowstorm that missed ATL), 2/1914 (much of central GA's 2nd biggest SN on record; even up at ATL got a good hit near 2-3").

 There have been far more lows crossing N FL/S GA during winter. However, sometimes they do actually go far south per some of the ones I mentioned above and like these recent GFS runs have shown. One would think that the GFS is too far south as per other models and the more common N FL path. However, the GFS hasn't let go of the far south path. So, until then, it should be considered a possibility.
 
Many years of winter weather weenie-ism in the south has taught me that it's not all that great to be in the sweet-spot right now. I would want to be NW at this point. There's no meteorological science behind my thoughts, just painful and sleepless experience.
 
snowman72 said:
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at 
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I would not write this off by any means for TN.  You have about the same chance to jackpot as much as those to your south.
 
Rarely do storms go that far south so I'm good with where it's at on the GFS.


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00z runs gonna be huge... the nw trend is gonna happen.. also like the star system
 
The GFS is in the same camp as the NAVGEM & DGEX wrt extreme suppression... I'm not saying it's certainly going to be wrong but this specific combination of model suites rarely, if ever verifies...
 
Aubighitter said:
I know climatology speaking where I am in Auburn odds are low however we have had some big dogs feb141973.
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I was in school then and it let out at noon and roads were already a mess only snowing 2 hours. Like to not got my car home. Had close to a foot out at the CDV.


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dgex is pound town from eastern alabama through atlanta before dumping over a foot in parts of NC

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EURO was not the greatest run today....def. squash a bit..What I find funny is the GFS is yes, further south, but the EURO would be sooo much better if it was colder like the GFS/CMC
 
snowman72 said:
I think all of us in Tennessee land can say goodbye to this winter threat. Maybe a few flurries at best
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Yep, MBY has not had a decent storm in 5 years now. They are either just south or just north. The area just south east of Nashville becomes the Sahara desert if the temp drops below 32. Can't tell you how many times I could drive 45 minutes north or south and be in snow.
 
bhs1975 said:
Rarely do storms go that far south so I'm good with where it's at on the GFS.


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Especially, with no blocking! IMO, I think a track over JAX, will be the final track
 
I've been gone all day and trying to figure out whats going on. So the snow will mainly be south of I-20 and here in North GA we won't get anything ?
 
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