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Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather

rburrel2 said:
I mean, pretty similar? The weak little bubble High that developed wasn't really ever shown on the global models at this lead time.

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Background pressures are noticeably a lot lower here without a high center (even a weak one) to the north, indicative of a generally warmer deep layer air mass in place & a less favorable pattern. Could still work out especially in the most favored cad areas, but there are caveats.
 
Raleigh leaning CMC and NAM on thermals, zr could still be a minor issue

The GFS/GEFS and Euro/ENS suggest the initial band of light precip (mentioned above) Sunday evening may bring dew points up into the lower 30s rather quickly. This scenario would promote less wet bulb cooling potential and lower chances for freezing rain. Alternatively, the Canadian/GEPS and the NAM suggest dew points will hang in the upper 20s from 06 to 12Z Monday. This scenario, would suggest better freezing rain potential for our northern areas. Given that the NAM and Canadian are typically better at handling cold sfc air compared
to the Euro and GFS, decided to maintain a mention of rain/freezing rain mix mainly for those along and north of I-85 Sunday night.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Pesky little chunk of the 50-50 low over Quebec making things interesting again
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Yeah, the surface low is flirting with the idea of sliding under and around the mountains instead of the miller B'ish idea with a dry slot. Trending much colder at all levels too. One more jog south and the CAD regions and northern tier of NC counties are in the game to see some winter weather.
 
So seldom you see that due east/wesr dividing line instead of the NE/SW line. Only in over running events or front end thumps from frontogenesis, love it when it does happen though
 
Metwannabe said:
Getting inside hi res range today so hopefully start seeing some consistency and positive consistency at that
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I'm a little more into this than I want to be. Really want to see how the models start to resolve the leading fgen band I do think there's enough consistency that I'm probably out on a front end mixed hit but I think you look OK with that. If nothing else I'd take a front end rain to lock in the residual CAD dome and try to push the transfer farther south so that if the mid level features keep inching south I'm not trying to go from 60 to mid 30s
 
A couple more model shifts and this could get interesting for folks in the northern half of North Carolina and would guarantee snow for most if not all of Virginia. This storm is going to be a headache for folks in Kentucky and Tennessee with ice accumulations of over an inch in some places. While I would like to avoid that, it would nice to see a little winter weather in my area.
 
Metwannabe said:
DPs keep trending down on the NAM as precip arrives which at very least bodes well for some onset ip/zr

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Yeah, keeps getting a little better each run. Here the NAM for the last two runs. A little more CAD signature. We need the primary low to get squeezed south some.

12z hr69:
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6z hr75:
1735917373629.png
 
KyloG said:
What an awesome storm for the DC to PHL area...10-12"...NYC to BOS has to be pulling their hair out. We get some heavy rains for us...not all bad, with nice cold temps to follow.

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I don't hate the mid-atlantic is getting a good hit. It's been a while for them too, so I'm glad somebody's getting a storm somewhat nearby on the east coast. At least we know it's still possible...lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
I don't hate the mid-atlantic is getting a good hit. It's been a while for them too, so I'm glad somebody's getting a storm somewhat nearby on the east coast. At least we know it's still possible...lol.
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Consolation prize, laying down snow pack up north
 
Gotta love these trends if you are northern Forsyth County/Guilford County up along Stokes County and probably EAST to north of Raleigh. Backside snow more likely there where as it will be too late for Yadkin/Surry/Wilkes imo. Seen this setup a few times.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
This one is slowly sneaking back up on us. I thought we could write this one off for good. I guess it warrants some more tracking. Let's see if we can get a CAD event out of this.
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If cad is involved there is usually a chance it out performs the models right up to when it starts falling, and often after that with a 4am cad surprise.
 
👀 Sunday Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 9am. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 2pm. High near 20. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.
 
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