Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather

[Webberweather53]

Confluence backed off and the wave is beefier in more recent runs. On top of the fact that you’ve got other processes like a strong LLJ off the gulf helping advect latent heat northward more quickly & mostly unmitigated warm advection, there’s probably a little more of this north trend where this came from

We suck lol

 

[KyloG]

What an impressive upper low...the bigger the better. Big snows beget big snows later on in winter.

 

[tractor girl]

Gotta love that NW trend sometimes we live by it sometimes we get rain, cold.

 

[Bigedd09]

12z GFS gives northern GA. AL, and NE NC some snow showers/flurries on the backside monday afternoon. Something to watch

 

[malak05]

12z GFS gives northern GA. AL, and NE NC some snow showers/flurries on the backside monday afternoon. Something to watch

Interesting enough several of the GFS Ensembles has some of that action with some brief backside action as the system turns up... I guess will be a little feature to follow for parts of N. AL/N. GA on the first event to see if it continues to be there its been sprinkling a little bit of that action over past few runs

 

[Bigedd09]

Interesting enough several of the GFS Ensembles has some of that action with some brief backside action as the system turns up... I guess will be a little feature to follow for parts of N. AL/N. GA on the first event to see if it continues to be there its been sprinkling a little bit of that action over past few runs

Yes. They do well with those kinds of set ups

 

[rburrel2]

I don't buy it, but interesting none the less. Rgem usually a little too cold with surface wetbulbs at this range.

 

[Webberweather53]

A tale almost as old as time itself. Northward shifts in the medium range

 

[weather bubba]

A tale almost as old as time itself. Northward shifts in the medium range

View attachment 158659

Before all is said and done, this might end up being a Mid Atlantic storm. If that were the case it would at least provide some snowpack for the systems to come behind this event.

 

[jeremyt]

Before all is said and done, this might end up being a Mid Atlantic storm. If that were the case it would at least provide some snowpack for the systems to come behind this event.

I think it’s already modeled as such!

 

[rburrel2]

Hmm... obviously gonna be limited by latent heat release here, but if we can wetbulb down to 29/30 then a freezing rain advisory level event isn't out of the question? By no means am I predicting a bust, but this is the type of setup where sometimes models underdo surface wetbulb temps when we saturate. Similar to February 16, 2015. Or maybe they aren't, this is not a forecast! Just something to watch.

For February 2015, Northeast Georgia/Upstate SC was forecasted per hi-res models to not get below 36/37 at the surface (the day before the event) and they had a significant ice storm.

Also I remember thinking we had no chance of sleet and only a slight chance of freezing rain before quickly flipping to rain, and we wound up getting almost all sleet with temps in the upper 20's...I was still only at 30.4 as the final band of precip moved through. This event "could be" similar... especially when looking at 925mb temps.






Hmm

 

[rburrel2]

This is actually really similar to that Feb 16, 2015 event in that we had no parent high, just insitu CAD from the remnants of a cold air mass, plus that one had a surface low forecast to track through kentucky, but damping out an transferring ESE... sorta like this setup.

 

[rburrel2]

I mean, pretty similar? The weak little bubble High that developed wasn't really ever shown on the global models at this lead time.

 

[Oconeexman]

This is actually really similar to that Feb 16, 2015 event in that we had no parent high, just insitu CAD from the remnants of a cold air mass, plus that one had a surface low forecast to track through kentucky, but damping out an transferring ESE... sorta like this setup.

Reel it in burrel!
We are in the range of mesoscale picking up with in situ cad hopefully

 

[rburrel2]

We would really just need the amperage on this storm to trend down a little and the prime CAD regions would be cooking with grease for sleet/ice. The amped up storm hurts a little with warmer midlevels... but really mainly hurts sleet/ice chances b/c there's less/no precip out ahead of the front in our region in that scenario.

 

[Chazwin]

This is actually really similar to that Feb 16, 2015 event in that we had no parent high, just insitu CAD from the remnants of a cold air mass, plus that one had a surface low forecast to track through kentucky, but damping out an transferring ESE... sorta like this setup.

I remember that storm. If I remember correctly I small meso-high formed over western VA that helped lock in the CAD

 

[iGRXY]

I could definitely see some onset sleet for CAD areas of southern NC and Northern SC. Highly doubt it’s much more than that though

 

[LukeBarrette]

NAM and RGEM say I see front end flakes. Probably will change but a good start

 

[Nomanslandva]

View attachment 158623
Please, all i’m asking for is a couple hours of snow.

I feel like I know how this is going to go but am slightly hopeful we get a little be. RGEM has several hours. Nam seems to as well. 12Z ec went snow to zr and then back to a snow sounding under heavier returns mid event so who knows. Last few nails not in the coffin yet.

 

[Brent]

I wonder if there might be blizzard conditions in Missouri

 

[JP152]

I feel like I know how this is going to go but am slightly hopeful we get a little be. RGEM has several hours. Nam seems to as well. 12Z ec went snow to zr and then back to a snow sounding under heavier returns mid event so who knows. Last few nails not in the coffin yet.

I'm hoping for you guys. Looks like the Northern Valley may get raked. Latest Euro has 14 inches in Winchester.

 

[JP152]

View attachment 158781
View attachment 158782
NAM and RGEM say I see front end flakes. Probably will change but a good start

I hope you guys get it.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

RNK's change of the day! Expect many more changes before Sunday! #ColdRain
Sunday
Scattered flurries between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday
A chance of rain before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

[rburrel2]

 

[rburrel2]

Ya'll this airmass in place on Sunday is very cold and dry. I don't think we can rule out some freezing rain.

 

[FallsLake]

Wow! Did not expect to see that from the NAM. There is a very cold air mass in place, but how long can it last.

 

[Nomanslandva]

RNK's change of the day! Expect many more changes before Sunday! #ColdRain
Sunday
Scattered flurries between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Rain, snow, and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Monday
A chance of rain before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Not even a logical progression given the setup. IDK

 

[FallsLake]

I think part of the difference with the NAM is it has precip developing east of the mountains in NC and SC. Other models show everything up in Virginia. This helps wet bulb the temps down.

 

[iGRXY]

LP a bit Southwest this run with more HP over top. Likely doesn't result in any difference but just interesting

 

[Brent]

Good grief

 

[Ross]

Alright. This might not be my storm

 

[Brent]

Alright. This might not be my storm

Lol looks like a cutoff over there

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Reel it in burrel!
We are in the range of mesoscale picking up with in situ cad hopefully

Burrel brought home the Feb 21 snow for the upstate. That one was dead and buried, turned out the lights, gone. Burrel delivered one of the prettiest and heaviest quick hitters ever!

 

[rburrel2]

Rgem agrees with the NAM for the escarpment of NC/SC.

 

[rburrel2]

Burrel brought home the Feb 21 snow for the upstate. That one was dead and buried, turned out the lights, gone. Burrel delivered one of the prettiest and heaviest quick hitters ever!

I do my best! haha

I'm not saying we will get any ice(we probably wont)... I'm just saying it is still possible.

 

[NCSNOW]

Good timing 6z-12z. Just a matter of getting precip in here and not virga. Be nice,before the cold rain settles in. I always trust cams over Globals in this type situation

 

[NWMSGuy]

Rgem agrees with the NAM for the escarpment of NC/SC.


View attachment 158860

Glad you posted this for us folks back West! Was wondering if we could squeeze some backend snow/flurries out of this and it looks like that may be a possibility!

 

[BIG FROSTY]

GDPS all Ice from beginning to end along the Escarpment,

 

[NCSNOW]

Canadian computer programers know how to make a man sleep/dream easy at night.

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro getting back on train. Ukmet big shift south