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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

BMX not biting yet:

“The synoptic pattern remains unchanged from Friday through the weekend, with an expansive upper level trough spread from the Rocky Mountains all the way to the Atlantic Coast. This will keep a relatively cooler air mass over the Deep South for the end of the week. NAEFs highlights much of the region in the bottom 10th or bottom 2.5th percentiles for mean temps and mean geopotential heights with values roughly 2 standard deviations below the climatological mean for this time of year. Essentially, this adds confidence in the overall forecast for cold weather in the extended forecast. Another clipper system dips through the Upper Plains and into the Southeast sometime Saturday evening or Sunday, but guidance varies substantially on the timing. Depending on when it comes through and the temperatures at the time, I can`t rule out some mixed precip, so I`ve had to include mention in the forecast. However, confidence is extremely low 7 days out for any mixed precip. I`m more confident in it remaining all liquid at this time.”
 
whizrtr said:
BMX not biting yet:

“The synoptic pattern remains unchanged from Friday through the weekend, with an expansive upper level trough spread from the Rocky Mountains all the way to the Atlantic Coast. This will keep a relatively cooler air mass over the Deep South for the end of the week. NAEFs highlights much of the region in the bottom 10th or bottom 2.5th percentiles for mean temps and mean geopotential heights with values roughly 2 standard deviations below the climatological mean for this time of year. Essentially, this adds confidence in the overall forecast for cold weather in the extended forecast. Another clipper system dips through the Upper Plains and into the Southeast sometime Saturday evening or Sunday, but guidance varies substantially on the timing. Depending on when it comes through and the temperatures at the time, I can`t rule out some mixed precip, so I`ve had to include mention in the forecast. However, confidence is extremely low 7 days out for any mixed
precip. I`m more confident in it remaining all liquid at this time.”
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Sounds like some of the bitter fauxcasts we hear among some of the posters here. LOL


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whizrtr said:
BMX not biting yet:

“The synoptic pattern remains unchanged from Friday through the weekend, with an expansive upper level trough spread from the Rocky Mountains all the way to the Atlantic Coast. This will keep a relatively cooler air mass over the Deep South for the end of the week. NAEFs highlights much of the region in the bottom 10th or bottom 2.5th percentiles for mean temps and mean geopotential heights with values roughly 2 standard deviations below the climatological mean for this time of year. Essentially, this adds confidence in the overall forecast for cold weather in the extended forecast. Another clipper system dips through the Upper Plains and into the Southeast sometime Saturday evening or Sunday, but guidance varies substantially on the timing. Depending on when it comes through and the temperatures at the time, I can`t rule out some mixed precip, so I`ve had to include mention in the forecast. However, confidence is extremely low 7 days out for any mixed
precip. I`m more confident in it remaining all liquid at this time.”
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I would expect that from them and probably most of the other mets in our area now. They’d be crazy to mention accumulating snowfall 7 days out in the Deep South. If trends continue, I’d imagine they will hop on board come Tuesday night into Wednesday. I hope this trends great for all of us, but so much can go right and so much can go wrong.
 
I wonder if the gfs will bring it back next run. Also it appears Tropical tidbits shows storm on fv3 and pivotal weather doesn’t show it on fv3. What’s up with that?


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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
This is the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen snow all the way to Tifton keeping me from having to go back to school nxt Monday. It won’t happen like that but I like the trends in the models hits a lot of people who haven’t and probably never will see that much snow in their lifetime with a big storm.
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WOW !That's a lot of snow for the eastern I-20 Corridor areas including areas further south of there and it could've been even more if it was colder! This event is still over 7 days away,but some of the models have a good/great setup for our areas.Plenty of time to perhaps trend towards something even better in the coming days.
 
Western ridge on the 06z GFS was a mess. It was a mess at 00z as well but still managed to deliver. FV3 has trended towards better western ridging in the last 10 runs
 
Trends are pointing towards the winter storm that's for sure. But, the time period is not within 5 days yet. So as we know, there will be changes. The snow fall output maps will change, the amounts and placement. I'm on the verge of excitement for this time frame though, no doubt about it. What we're seeing so far is very encouraging.
 
WxWatch said:
Trends are pointing towards the winter storm that's for sure. But, the time period is not within 5 days yet. So as we know, there will be changes. The snow fall output maps will change, the amounts and placement. I'm on the verge of excitement for this time frame though, no doubt about it. What we're seeing so far is very encouraging.
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Yep I’m waiting until Tuesday 12z. To decide if it’s a legit threat. By then the 5H energy will be split and heading onto the coast.

Until Tuesday 12z I will watch ensembles. Right now they are our most useful tool. We want to see more and more members showing a storm signal.

OP runs will likely be very volatile until Tuesday. For now ensembles are the way to go.

They have trended toward a large winter storm. But it could easily go the other way.


Just sit back, relax, and watch the ensembles.
 
Jessy89 said:
I wonder if the gfs will bring it back next run. Also it appears Tropical tidbits shows storm on fv3 and pivotal weather doesn’t show it on fv3. What’s up with that?


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Not to be condescending, but please take a look and make sure you are comparing the same run. Not sure how this is not showing a storm?


prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
IF we watch OP models we should watch the 120hr time frame. Watch this fv3 trend in the NW US. (That’s our energy for this storm)

10E18511-63CE-441D-A2B3-E4CD82F605E4.gif

All in all it’s moving a lot but it is “trending” to more of a dig.

We want to see consistency in this timeframe before we can even look further down the road.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
IF we watch OP models we should watch the 120hr time frame. Watch this fv3 trend in the NW US. (That’s our energy for this storm)

View attachment 12077

All in all it’s moving a lot but it is “trending” to more of a dig.

We want to see consistency in this timeframe before we can even look further down the road.
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You're right, because that time frame is within 5 days. Any changes to that peice of energy within 5 days will change what's ahead past 5 days. It still has the potential of being a widespread significant winter storm though due to ensemble support.
 
WXinCanton said:
Not to be condescending, but please take a look and make sure you are comparing the same run. Not sure how this is not showing a storm?


prateptype_cat.conus.png
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Sorry your right looked at wrong map. I’m wondering is there always a northwest trend? I’d like a slight jog north


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SD said:
Lord have mercy
67b9a685bcaef5d41a64fc047dd17d80.jpg


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Wouldn't a fast moving jet streak strengthen the storm to a greater magnitude? lower the mb? I know there would be tons of moisture though with that fast moving jet.
 
WxWatch said:
Wouldn't a fast moving jet streak strengthen the storm to a greater magnitude? lower the mb? I know there would be tons of moisture though with that fast moving jet.
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Yes and fv3 bombs it sub 990 off hatteras. Qpf won’t be an issue at all this winter. Only “issue” is the speed of the storm. The fv3 has this sucker ripping through in 12 hrs or less
 
WxWatch said:
Wouldn't a fast moving jet streak strengthen the storm to a greater magnitude? lower the mb? I know there would be tons of moisture though with that fast moving jet.
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Yes. You can see the FV drop the pressure from 1006 over the FL panhandle to 987 just east of HSE .

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Fountainguy97 said:
Yes and fv3 bombs it sub 990 off hatteras. Qpf won’t be an issue at all this winter. Only “issue” is the speed of the storm. The fv3 has this sucker ripping through in 12 hrs or less
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Yeah, it would probably be a fast mover, especially with the jet ripping like that. But, if everything keeps pointing in the direction of what there is now on the models, some places are going to get "dumped" on with snow in a short period of time.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yeah with this setup a sub 990 LP is easily possible. And even lower probably
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So, that EPS member that Kylo posted of the 973mb low has a possibility? But, that possibility is low right? Also, there would be blocking to the northeast over the northwestern Atlantic. Blocking would amplify the storm system.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Every storm this winter has over-performed in the precipitation department. This one will be no exception. I don't see it being dry at all. I am not rooting for the NW trend with this one. I am only rooting for a much larger and heavier precip shield.
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I would like to see the precip shield stretch into the upstate more. Perhaps up to I-40 in NC.


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WxWatch said:
So, that EPS member that Kylo posted of the 973mb low has a possibility? But, that possibility is low right? Also, there would be blocking to the northeast over the northwestern Atlantic. Blocking would amplify the storm system.
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973 would legitimately be a once in a lifetime storm and we would be talking about it until the board ceased to exist. You would have to have a perfect setup to see something like that

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SD said:
973 would legitimately be a once in a lifetime storm and we would be talking about it until the board ceased to exist. You would have to have a perfect setup to see something like that

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Just for kicks, does anybody have the snow output from that member?
 
SD said:
973 would legitimately be a once in a lifetime storm and we would be talking about it until the board ceased to exist. You would have to have a perfect setup to see something like that

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With these way above normal SSTs who knows what’s possible anymore.

70cd7180ccfc80753116828d483584fd.gif



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BHS1975 said:
With these way above normal SSTs who knows what’s possible anymore.

70cd7180ccfc80753116828d483584fd.gif



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I agree, and I fully believe it had something to do with the December 2017 storm as well.
 
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