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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

Did H5 really trend better over the 6z?
 
I'll take my chances though....

namconus_T850_seus_43.png
 
In terms of surface impacts this was the closest yet to the 18z NAM, which was probably too good of a run for its model cycle. Just needs a few more small shifts.
 
Honestly the sim reflectivity of the 3km nam indicates a lot of precip would be eaten up by virga... but it isn’t that dry aloft either...hmmm.
1548513425850.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Still nobody is concerned about temps?
Click to expand...
I'm always concerned about temps where I sit. Got to have some heavy precip for dynamic cooling because BL temps look meh and that is debatable at this point. However, this is where folks in the Eastern Piedmont need to be at this point because the NW trend does us in about 99% of the time at the last hour. There is still time left for this thing to move NW and from past experiences, it will happen.
 
Well, the positive thing is the models are not going back south with the system. Still plenty of time for the models to adjust NW more. And it could still end up further NW than the models show. We're talking about 100 miles or so being a big difference.
 
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