• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

metwannabe said:
That's a great sign because as of late the GFS has been last to the party every time
Although it looks like it shifted SE with the precip

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

which doesn't make sense given the 500mb setup. looking at the 850mb temps in SC, they crash below 0C despite having no QPF depicted... which still indicates dynamic and evaporational cooling is taking place.

NW trend will be from surface correction adjustments rather than pulling things northward.
 
metwannabe said:
Well hello....

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_48.png
Click to expand...
What of that is snow? Looks like all rain
 
Flo said:
What of that is snow? Looks like all rain
Click to expand...
While there is the thinnest swath of snow on the very Northwest fringes, to me it's more about the continued westward and northwestward adjustment of the precip shield. The column is cold and if we can get precip at a moderate rate we can get a changeover to snow, other models have shown snow all the way to the coast.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Models haven’t really trended any way since 18z yesterday. They are just holding steady more or less.

Euro led the way at 12z yesterday so it may again today but if not this one is done.

Maybe some random showers inland but probably would be rain without rates.

Trend has definitely stopped on all models since last night. Some have come in better but they now align with other guidance.

Maybe euro can save the day but looking bleak for this one.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Models haven’t really trended any way since 18z yesterday. They are just holding steady more or less.

Euro led the way at 12z yesterday so it may again today but if not this one is done.

Maybe some random showers inland but probably would be rain without rates.

Trend has definitely stopped on all models since last night. Some have come in better but they now align with other guidance.

Maybe euro can save the day but looking bleak for this one.
Click to expand...
Huh? Lol the EPS definitely shifted west overnight and the 6z is a tick slower and west again
 
Webberweather53 said:
Huh? Lol the EPS definitely shifted west overnight and the 6z is a tick slower and west again
Click to expand...


Yep. Lines up perfectly with what all other models show. 12z guidance held firm. No trend NW. a few models did sure but they were on eastern side of guidance and now align nicely with all models.

No “new” push NW. lol
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Yep. Lines up perfectly with what all other models show. 12z guidance held firm. No trend NW. a few models did sure but they were on eastern side of guidance and now align nicely with all models.

No “new” push NW. lol
Click to expand...
It doesn’t line up perfectly actually the EPS is significantly NW of the GFS and GEFS and the RGEM is even further west of either model and puts precip back to Columbia now... We definitely have ticked NW vs yesterday’s 18z runs and the long term trends in upstream shortwave interaction that actually are causing this to tick NW are still occurring
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Models haven’t really trended any way since 18z yesterday. They are just holding steady more or less.

Euro led the way at 12z yesterday so it may again today but if not this one is done.

Maybe some random showers inland but probably would be rain without rates.

Trend has definitely stopped on all models since last night. Some have come in better but they now align with other guidance.

Maybe euro can save the day but looking bleak for this one.
Click to expand...
How is the storm “done” as you’ve been proclaiming over and over again ad nasueum the past few days to no avail? You do in fact realize where many of the models stand right now taken at face value will favor snow in the coastal plain and I 95 corridor
 
Webberweather53 said:
It doesn’t line up perfectly actually the EPS is significantly NW of the GFS and GEFS and the RGEM is even further west of either model and puts precip back to Columbia now... We definitely have ticked NW vs yesterday’s 18z runs and the long term trends in upstream shortwave interaction that actually are causing this to tick NW are still occurring
Click to expand...
webber think Columbia has a small chance?
 
Webberweather53 said:
How is the storm “done” as you’ve been proclaiming over and over again ad nasueum the past few days to no avail? You do in fact realize where many of the models stand right now taken at face value will favor snow in the coastal plain and I 95 corridor
Click to expand...


Ok buddy... you keep chasing this “NW” trend that has yet to Bring any meaningful precip inland. For days it’s been coming NW!! And guess where we are? Oh shockingly with 0 meaningful precip inland.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ok buddy... you keep chasing this “NW” trend that has yet to Bring any meaningful precip inland. For days it’s been coming NW!! And guess where we are? Oh shockingly with 0 meaningful precip inland.
Click to expand...
Are you really gonna try this crap again? Oh boy a few models for one cycle did not trend NW, surely lets go out and claim yet again that’s the final nail in the coffin and this storm is done like you’ve been exclaiming every day of late. I’m still waiting for yesterday’s Euro to be the end of this threat, oh wait it wasn’t, what a surprise...
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Ok buddy... you keep chasing this “NW” trend that has yet to Bring any meaningful precip inland. For days it’s been coming NW!! And guess where we are? Oh shockingly with 0 meaningful precip inland.
Click to expand...

The fact that it doesn’t provide “meaningful precip inland” atm, doesn’t mean it’s not moving NW per models, it’s been incremental.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ok guys chill out the models are still trending NW even if it’s small, a NW trend is still a NW trend
 
Webberweather53 said:
Are you really gonna try this crap again? Oh boy a few models for one cycle did not trend NW, surely lets go out and claim yet again that’s the final nail in the coffin and this storm is done like you’ve been exclaiming every day of late. I’m still waiting for yesterday’s Euro to be the end of this threat, oh wait it wasn’t, what a surprise...
Click to expand...

And I’m still waiting for a run to show any form of meaningful precip inland. Lol

And I’m still waiting
 
thekidcurtis said:
The fact that it doesn’t provide “meaningful precip inland” atm, doesn’t mean it’s not moving NW per models, it’s been incremental.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

It’s obviously moved NW. and a lot. But we still need 100+ miles NW to get any significant precip inland. Our storm is taking shape In 24-30 hrs.

This bust in models would be greater than the 2010 storm at this point
 
Let’s stay friends or neutral ground here, but 12z 12km NAM actually looked better, might of been slight but it was better, rgem is something else, but it’s still 2 days from this thing starting, still 8 models suites to go thru, we have time
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It’s obviously moved NW. and a lot. But we still need 100+ miles NW to get any significant precip inland. Our storm is taking shape In 24-30 hrs.

This bust in models would be greater than the 2010 storm at this point
Click to expand...
Didn’t u just say we haven’t been trending Nw of late surely you must be confused
 
Fountainguy97 said:
It’s obviously moved NW. and a lot. But we still need 100+ miles NW to get any significant precip inland. Our storm is taking shape In 24-30 hrs.

This bust in models would be greater than the 2010 storm at this point
Click to expand...
Not really, the 2010 storm 3 days out moved closer to shore by a similar amount we need to get a big snow for areas west of 95.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top