At this point we’re just talking about some very subtle changes that are completely possible that would turn this into a potentially significant event. Who would have thought a month ago that we would actually be pulling for the WAR to flex stronger than modeled at the last minute to help deliver a decent snow?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Wow look at that shift west.
snowlover91
Member
How did the 6z euro finish? Improvements in precip?
BHS1975
Member
HRRR is creeping west.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
Looking at the data we need to get the storm to slow down so we can tap into these kind of rates/rations...this is for PGV on the 6Z GFS ratios 13-23:1 gives us 3" in 3 hrs.....temps low 20's, pure powder, just need it to give us 2-3 more hrs of this to take this from 3-5" to something more memorable....that's 3" of snow for .11" QPF....
220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
220122/0500Z 47 36011KT 24.0F SNOW 19:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 10:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0
220122/0600Z 48 36010KT 23.8F SNOW 23:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061 12:1| 5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
220122/0700Z 49 36012KT 23.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 12:1| 5.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0
BHS1975
Member
Everything has been over performing as of late.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
This morning, about 2/3rds of SC is under either an Advisory or Watch. NC has Warnings roughly east of 95, with WWAs stretching west to about 85 or so.
Ice Storm Warnings for NC and border SC beach counties, which is I believe is extremely rare.
Ice Storm Warnings for NC and border SC beach counties, which is I believe is extremely rare.
31hrs in duration, Coast is under a Ice Storm Warning for 1/4-1/2”
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
NCZ029-044>046-079-202145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.220121T0000Z-220122T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.220121T0500Z-220122T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, and Walstonburg
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell and Greene Counties.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be found online
at DriveNC.gov.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
NCZ029-044>046-079-202145-
/O.UPG.KMHX.WS.A.0001.220121T0000Z-220122T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KMHX.WS.W.0001.220121T0500Z-220122T1200Z/
Martin-Pitt-Washington-Tyrrell-Greene-
Including the cities of Williamston, Robersonville, Oak City,
Jamesville, Greenville, Bethel, Farmville, Grifton, Grimesland,
Plymouth, Roper, Creswell, Columbia, Gum Neck, Snow Hill,
Hookerton, and Walstonburg
445 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around
one tenth of an inch.
* WHERE...Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell and Greene Counties.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning and evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.
The latest road conditions for North Carolina can be found online
at DriveNC.gov.
Shaggy
Member
Roads could end up worse thus storm than some.others. the rain with the front and the flash freeze by Friday morning will leave some nice black ice. Cover that with sleet and snow and it's a driving nightmare
Downeastnc
Member
Most models have big lull from around dawn to dusk tomorrow though.....if the GFS is right last run then MHX will realize their 3-5" call for us with the best 3-4 hrs being 1-5 am Sat morning....so still almost 36 hrs out feels like this storm is never gonna get here lol
Cbmatt2408
Member
Well it’s been fun. I tried to ride it out as long as possible, but I’m conceding to a non-event in west-central GA. I know it died yesterday but looks like the autopsy confirmed it today. Y’all have fun in the Carolinas.
The 12z hrrr already looks so much better at H5 vs the last 18 hours of hrrr runs
iGRXY
Member
N/S is pushing further west vs 6z and the SW is actually further North and there's more consolidating of the waves.
NoSnowATL
Member
Raining/ 49
Downeastnc
Member
Yeah looks very GFSish...looks better with the arctic front thump for sure
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
This may be banter and may be deleted, but I just wanted to thank all of you for sharing y’all’s insight to this storm. I know a lot of us may not get what we want but all your posts and insights have been amazing these last couple of days. Good luck to everyone with this storm in eastern nc va and sc
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Slight improvement and the big takeaway is it stopped any eastward shift, 0z and 06z below, definite shift west (again slight but still positive)
edit: shift west but also lighter amounts in some locations
That energy around WI looks so much better 
iGRXY
Member
The Northern stream is slowing down and the SW is a bit further east so far too. Could be interesting as the Gulf looks a little better with moisture thru 18.