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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

metwannabe said:
I always remember Shane saying over the years that wile we hate the SER, you also need a little ridge to keep winter storms from missing altogether. Perfect example right here
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Just need this to tilt a tad bit more and give us 4-6 more hrs during peak conditions upstairs.....that always seem to be our problem when we finally get everything lined up to dump we get 2-3 hrs of it and then its over....its why its so hard to get events over 4-6" around here lol....that back end will be haunting us tomorrow night as it seems to move in way faster than it should lol....
 
metwannabe said:
Slight improvement and the big takeaway is it stopped any eastward shift, 0z and 06z below, definite shift west (again slight but still positive)

edit: shift west but also lighter amounts in some locations

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1642971600-u9udV5mDN8E.png
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Very nice.
 
ajr said:
Makes me laugh a little bit about how complicated it is to forecast winter weather in the SE. Hats off to those who try!
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His maps are indeed extra. But I respect it. If I had to wager, I thought his totals actually might have been a little lower in the Triangle area. 11th hour is approaching.
 
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
 
SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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Where the hell is the wave at?! This thing is go time for tomorrow lmao
 
GM, I’ve been watching radar for my area they have been calling for rain to start at 5 am and still nothing. Will a delay increase the chance of wintry precipitation since it is starting later? Or maybe I have that invisible tent over me. Lol
 
SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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This one is really on the edge of a knife. I agree, I think it matters somewhat in this instance. I also think it matters in the 2-5 day time frame too, depending on the orientation and nature of the general 500 mb longwave pattern. I think it plays a significant role in why we often anecdotally recognize storms "disappearing" during that window and reappearing as we get closer. But for the most part, it's overused and just randomly tossed out as if it's universally applicable in every situation, like so many other things.
 
Rain Cold said:
This one is really on the edge of a knife. I agree, I think it matters somewhat in this instance. I also think it matters in the 2-5 day time frame too, depending on the orientation and nature of the general 500 mb longwave pattern. I think it plays a significant role in why we often anecdotally recognize storms "disappearing" during that window and reappearing as we get closer. But for the most part, it's overused and just randomly tossed out as if it's universally applicable in every situation, like so many other things.
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Yeap huge list that gets used on every storm.


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