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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

SD said:
I'm not a huge believer in wait until the wave gets sampled I think it falls into weenie lore but I would certainly feel better if we had all pieces over the US at the moment for the 12z runs. It's such a small change required to make a relative large change at the sfc it bothers me with this one. I really don't trust a meso model ATM if they are blowing it at 500mb the sfc features are pretty irrelevant
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That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
 
I should probably wait until the NAM runs to make an actual call but unless the NAM makes a staggering reversal I doubt it'll matter.

Best case scenario for areas along I-77 and immediately eastward are flurries to maybe an inch once to get towards FAY-RDU. Then the chances for more significant snow accumulations run from just west of I-95 to around US-17, after that the chances of snow lowers but the chances of ice rises.
 
metwannabe said:
That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
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Yeah stronger would tilt it a bit quicker and it is the last piece of the puzzle. Very little changes in the southern vort and the northern one, but that trailing piece is what slows and sharpens the northern vort up so it will be huge.
 
metwannabe said:
That s/w you've been mentioning, I guess the 3rd piece of the puzzle, that trails and could sharpen our wave a little more is the one that hasn't been sampled yet correct? Would stronger be better for that one?
Click to expand...
Yeah the more energy you can drop into the base/back of the current trough the more you can attempt to slow it down, dig it, tilt it. That means downstream a more amplified divergent jet, higher coastal heights, more waa/fgen/isentropic lift aloft.
 
I think the best the Triad is going to get comes with the frontal passage later today. As moisture from the weak wave overrides the front, some light snow will break out. A heavy dusting to maybe an 1" is all I expect. Anything tomorrow night will be a bonus and a surprise.
 
doesnt get it done, ugh. out of time im afraid.
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_24.png
 
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