Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[GaWx]

Saw that earlier. These are the sneaker systems that typically burnt us back in the 80s when modeling was nowhere near advanced as it is today.

The general trend of the last few EPS means is clearly further north with the next wave on Saturday. This is the wave that the GFS suite has precariously close to the GA/lower SC coast. ZR on Saturday afternoon and evening would be the main threat there should this keep trending north:

 

[Metwannabe]

The slightest of improvements

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Energy is back to looking like crap on models

 

[Shawn]

Energy is back to looking like crap on models

Beyond crap.

 

[GaWx]

The 6Z NAM increased the qpf for Fri night and Saturday morning (much in the form of ZR) in E SC CHS south and S GA vs 0Z/18Z/12Z runs (still too low to be a disaster thank goodness):

24 hour qpf 0Z Sat to 0Z Sun

6Z run:


0Z run:


18Z run:


12Z run:


6Z run precip types:

 

[bouncycorn]

6z MMFS snowfall accums & freezing rain accums, remains very consistent with this solution.

 

[Shaggy]

Seems at 36 gfs is a bit slower/digging SW and has a little more interaction between the energy

 

[packfan98]

Best gfs we’ve had in 24 hours! 6z RGEM was really good too. Definitely some positives from overnight.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Best gfs we’ve had in 24 hours! 6z RGEM was really good too. Definitely some positives from overnight.

06 gfs?

 

[raine1212]

Maybe we have a chance

FXUS62 KCAE 200923
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
423 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS... Clouds continue to move into the region ahead of a cold
front that will move across the region this afternoon. Rain will
move into the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area early today
and continue through Friday night. Temperatures will quickly fall
late this afternoon and especially tonight into Friday. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire Midlands of SC with
impacts in the CSRA still possible. Ice accumulations will near
0.10" across the eastern forecast area, while snowfall totals less
than an inch possible over the norther Midlands. Cold air fills
behind the wintry weather for Saturday lasting into next week.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[packfan98]

06 gfs?

Yes

 

[FallsLake]

Looks good, but not sure if it's a "blip" in the runs. I like it, but it needs support (at least for me..).

 

[lexxnchloe]

Yes

big improvement

 

[Shaggy]

Best gfs we’ve had in 24 hours! 6z RGEM was really good too. Definitely some positives from overnight.

The rgem was real close to and the gfs took a good step.as well. A little more delay in that N/S and a touch more neutral and it's good

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If these models end up wrong less than 2 days out they should be shamed for life

 

[FallsLake]

6z Icon has decreased totals but falls in the GFS camp (it's been the most consistent):

 

[bouncycorn]

MMFS 06z experimental winter storm impact tool maxes out in parts of NC.

 

[FallsLake]

Latest 9z RAP holds serve with its totals. These would match the Advisory's that are now issued for central NC. The one thing that this tells me is we do still have an event. Late last night I thought that we had a good chance of seeing nothing.

 

[FallsLake]

The Canadian from 0z looks a little like the latest RAP: