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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

BullCityWx said:
and people really need to watch tomorrow. Usually, in a scenario such as it is, we're waiting for the cold air to struggle over the hills. In this instance, it could slam through like a carolina norther.
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This 100%!! Short range models are picking up more frozen precip tomorrow night even back to CLT metro with the first wave. This isn’t the typical waiting for the cold air to spill over the mountains… this push is coming straight from the north with no mountains to impede it
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
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Very good map my only change would be a locally higher spots near Davie County NC where it supports more snow vs sleet than say Sandford, NC. I would tilt the axis of 1-3” favoring i77 and just east then lowering totals until going higher near Raleigh again. It’s gonna be a funky map in the end with sleet cutting totals in the east.
 
It’s tough. I think we’ve been harrumph harrumphing for years about you don’t want to be in the jackpot zone 2 days out, you want to be north of it! And now we’re here and I kinda of feel like the dog that caught the mail truck. Synoptically feels like a lot of the models took out trough and rotated in maybe 5 degrees clock wise. We got a bit more of a upper level cold press but sacrificed the tilt of the trough. Feels like we’re in a good spot but I’ll say it doesn’t inspire much confidence
 
BirdManDoomW said:
1” widespread snow should be a win ? for those near or west of i77. It better than 0”. It’s certainly feasible we get some advisory level snows near Davie County down to Concord (0.5”-2”). Time to stop being negative as we approach the event, I was just trying not to overhype this back on Saturday of last week. Advisory criteria is different for Wilkes/Surry so I would go with special weather statement 0.5”-2”.
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Oh I get what you’re saying. This past Sunday was the first time my ground has been white in nearly 3 years, so I’m not gonna complain about getting a lighter event. Still I would watch for some last minute adjustments back to the west… as many mets including Webb stated there’s nothing to prevent it
 
based on the little coverage you guys have done on the mid south area, not sure why the national weather service is continuing with it's "hazardous weather statement" for the Huntsville area. It seems as if precipitation is several hundred miles away
 
LithiaWx said:
Just fyi. Higher than 10:1 rates hardly ever verify in the south.
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Yup esp when it’s starting as rain and sleet is forecasted on top of a hell merry late blooming low pressure too far off the coast. If there’s gonna be greater than 10:1 it’s Virginia.
 
Broken024 said:
Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??
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Yes and there likely will be but the problem is you're trending so far east with the precip that how far west it goes looks to be less and less. Now if we can get a NW trend under 48 hours, which is typical, plus the more expansive precip field around verification, then that helps a lot more people.
 
The latest 15z RAP would be a fun event. Looks like over 20 hours of light snow/sleet to the end of the run (hr 51), and it's still coming down at that point.

www.pivotalweather.com

Models: RAP — Pivotal Weather

View RAP weather model forecast map image for 1 km AGL Reflectivity with Precip Type in Mid-Atlantic on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
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