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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

jackendrickwx said:
I am assuming this is the IBM GRAF model that many news stations use as their short range “futurecast”

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Couple interesting things on that run. First it’s really wanting to push the cold in faster with that first wave and switches most of the NC Piedmont to frozen precip by late evening tomorrow. The other thing is this model typically has a dry bias… especially when dealing with low level Arctic airmasses… but here it’s showing quite a bit more precip than what some of the models have been showing this morning
 
We are used to boom/bust set ups around here and this one is no exception. Right now the trend is definitely towards more separation of the streams allowing a suppression of the system and sending many of us to go find ledges. We may well just be looking at a suppressed system with more of a coastal influence. Yet crazily, it would not take much for this to be a much bigger and widespread system. Last night's trends showed a bit more interaction b/w the 2 streams, specifically due to a better press by the northern stream. It would not take very much for that to actually happen. Remember, a relatively small variable change often has significant down stream effects. We don't know how this will end up, but I think there are still lots of possibilities out there, even some for the more western areas. FWIW, I think the Triangle is in a great spot to see the best potential in the Carolinas, as you already have a good setup, but also room for error. Stay tuned, we could still see a lot of waffling or trends coming down the wire; when do we not?
 
jtgus said:
On the radio, WFMY 2 just said a chance of rain for the Triad Thursday night
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Yeah, that’s from the cold front that moves out ahead of the storm. It could easily start out as rain before changing over to snow. Any precip on Friday will likely be frozen due to how cold the surface is (likely upper teens for the Triad).
 
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Iceagewhereartthou said:
We are used to boom/bust set ups around here and this one is no exception. Right now the trend is definitely towards more separation of the streams allowing a suppression of the system and sending many of us to go find ledges. We may well just be looking at a suppressed system with more of a coastal influence. Yet crazily, it would not take much for this to be a much bigger and widespread system. Last night's trends showed a bit more interaction b/w the 2 streams, specifically due to a better press by the northern stream. It would not take very much for that to actually happen. Remember, a relatively small variable change often has significant down stream effects. We don't know how this will end up, but I think there are still lots of possibilities out there, even some for the more western areas. FWIW, I think the Triangle is in a great spot to see the best potential in the Carolinas, as you already have a good setup, but also room for error. Stay tuned, we could still see a lot of waffling or trends coming down the wire; when do we not?
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What’s odd is that models have been kinda waffling back and forth the last several days between more suppression and more amping. Like I said the other day, this just a set up where mets are gonna have to rely on “old fashioned” meteorology… paying close attention to current charts and upstream obs
 
I got to say with the initial rain and waves of moisture/clouds coming and going I feel like a possible bust will be the Ptype the NWS thinks it’s snow when it could be confined much further west. I could see sleet or mix bagged for most on here. It’s a very messy strung out system that’s gonna wreak havoc on sleet vs snow vs rain mix vs rain vs dry. I wonder if models will see clearer once the front actually crosses
 
Brad P still honking on social media. Idk, but whenever he honks, I listen because he is by far one of the most conservative Mets in the region. His latest being- "Snow could start as soon as 4-7am Friday morning but the main show is in the afternoon and the evening. I don't like to make decisions for people but everyone leaving work & school in the middle of the day at the same time has been a disaster in the past. #snOMG #cltwx"
 
ryan1234 said:
Brad P still honking on social media. Idk, but whenever he honks, I listen because he is by far one of the most conservative Mets in the region. His latest being- "Snow could start as soon as 4-7am Friday morning but the main show is in the afternoon and the evening. I don't like to make decisions for people but everyone leaving work & school in the middle of the day at the same time has been a disaster in the past. #snOMG #cltwx"
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Eh, I would agree but I'm guessing all of this was put out before he looked through 12z models.
 
What sucks is that a lot of us are now hoping for a SW shift in the precip. Barely any precip for the Midlands of SC and points west now. Precipitation ends very early for most areas on the Euro. Even sooner than most models. What's worse is that 850s are actually pretty good for the Midlands of SC for a lot of the "event" in the Afternoon hours and beyond,but it's very dry. Well the positive thing is that there won't that many areas if any that would suffer a significant ice storm based on todays trends.
 
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