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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

DopplerWx said:
good news with these trends is if you're in the pee dee region in sc more snow than ice now. gfs continues the east trend with the 06z and 12z suite.
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Yep. NE South Carolina and SE North Carolina(including even all the way down as far south as Whiteville and Wilmington) gets 1-2 inches of snow if the GFS is correct, along with sleet. Also a widespread 3-6 inches of snow from the US 70 corrdior areas and points north in North Carolina. As much as I hate seeing seeing less and less precip for Central SC, a more suppressed solution like this would be good news far as avoiding a major ice storm for all areas.

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There is still a lot of time for the NW trend machine to go brrr. If you’re in the triangle, you can look at this suppressed trend with dismay or you can look at it as an insurance policy. If I go back to old storm threads, I can show you a litany of 3km snowfall maps that light up the triangle for storms that treated Roxboro very kindly.
 
frank ocean said:
There is still a lot of time for the NW trend machine to go brrr. If you’re in the triangle, you can look at this suppressed trend with dismay or you can look at it as an insurance policy. If I go back to old storm threads, I can show you a litany of 3km snowfall maps that light up the triangle for storms that treated Roxboro very kindly.
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I am offended by your use of logic, sir. Even as bad as this run "looks", it still puts down nearly half a foot over a large section of Wake County.
 
Chazwin said:
Even with what we’ve seen the last few hours, it still looks to me like there should be a more expansive precip shield to the north and west. Maybe not warning criteria stuff, but maybe some advisory level. Do you think so?
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Yeah I think that makes sense and you normally see that bit of ramp up with this type of system in the last 24 hours. The extent though is sensitive to the 500mb setup of course
 
WxGSO said:
No doubt this is trending towards an eastern NC storm for snow. Ice looks to be a MAJOR issue in SE NC and NE SC. They aren't used to this kind of weather so it may turn into quite the spectacle. There's still time for a NW shift but I'm not holding my breath.
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I read another Met I respect out of the mtn thread on amwx. Ward doesnt seem phased a bit, references back to how the same spectacle unfolded Dec 2017. Says 6zgfs had a snow sounding in Asheville, but nothing painted on the surface map
 
Interesting the NAVGEM of all models has been trending stronger and more amped.
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Can’t remember the last time a Winter Storm Watch (or warning) verified for Raleigh, unless it gets issued in real time with warning-level criteria being experienced. WSW is the Heisman Trophy of products - kiss of death.
 
BullCityWx said:
I am offended by your use of logic, sir. Even as bad as this run "looks", it still puts down nearly half a foot over a large section of Wake County.
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Yeah I felt that way about a lot of the runs coming in. Totals were cut but… still an above average event for a lot of folks. 6 inches of pixie dust in Raleigh would satisfy its yearly average. It’s hard to get that much snow here! Felt like a funeral procession on the forums watching these runs come in. Yeah obs you don’t want to be on the wrong side of the trend I get it but this isn’t a death sentence.
 
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