Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[iGRXY]

Realistically all we need is a little more tilt in the trough. Easy trend for 48 hours

Need the Northern stream to push further west and basically force a phase on its own. That's a very real possibility as we have seen amping in the short range and more digging of the N/S the closer we get to the system. But that is going to need to start by 0Z tonight.

 

[Rain Cold]

Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??

It's situational. It's not the autoguarantee that's often sold to you.

 

[superjames1992]

Isn't there some rule that precip always ends up further northwest than modeled? Or am I just being a giant ??

People always say that and anecdotally it seems to happen, but I’d also like to see some statistics as confirmation bias is a hell of a thing.

Some of the modeling has Durham now on the far NW edge of the precip, which is a bit worrisome. There does seem to be some legitimacy for the precip shield often extending further NW than modeled with these setups, though. modernweenie

 

[accu35]

Not much but something.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Whatever the trend it knows not to mess with Mount Airy

 

[ryan1234]

Ok at the risk of being a weenie, I’m gonna bring up the 2010 Christmas storm. That week on the 23rd, models started trended way east that morning and by the evening everyone on weather boards was putting a nail in the coffin on that storm. I remember though Brad P and Matthew East, along with a few other mets including Joe Bastardi, dug in and said the storm would still happen. Then we all watched the next day as the models started trending back west again throughout the day. I’m not saying that happens here, but living in the Carolinas for over 40 years tells me that even with what we’ve seen this morning, there should be a bigger footprint of snowfall back in the western area than what is currently being depicted

Since moving here in 03, I can count on one hand in which storms never made a last-minute NW jog or the precip didn't expand more to the NW. We still have 48 hours to go. This is not me wishcasting, btw. Things could very well turn out bone dry for most of western NC. But still time to go and honestly it won't take much for things to favor more of a board-wide event.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[BullCityWx]

View attachment 108317View attachment 108318

Stood out like a sore thumb that run.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Stood out like a sore thumb that run.

Not much of a difference from the NAM, I consider it a possibility given the SW flow aloft and sagging shallow Arctic cold front allowing overrunning potential early on

 

[griteater]

It's situational. It's not the autoguarantee that's often sold to you.

I’d say NW trend most applies when we have an established SS gulf low approaching us from the SW and moving into a marginal temperature environment. In this case, the storm is trying to crank up more on top of us with cold pressing in from the north

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

gfs ens members. still some hope for us back west.
View attachment 108314

They look good but my experience is they're trash this close. The op runs are much higher resolution, especially the mesoscale models.

 

[SimeonNC]

So move this to banter if it doesn't belong here but looking at the NWS blend, since it's using 10:1 ratios, wouldn't amounts back west between I-77 and I-95 be higher due to higher snow ratios.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that’s a way to generate precip, strong SW flow at 700mb and WAA it brings with it atop the wedge boundary moving south, at the very least there would be freezing drizzle under this, need to watch this, with the first wave itself

 

[Downeastnc]

It's situational. It's not the autoguarantee that's often sold to you.

Miller A's are famous for their brutal NW side cutoffs.....somewhere its gonna go from 4" to nothing over 20-30 miles.....

 

[snowlover91]

Not much of a difference from the NAM, I consider it a possibility given the SW flow aloft and sagging shallow Arctic cold front allowing overrunning potential early on

There seems to be a weak impulse that moves through the area favoring this overrunning. It's pretty weak so something I expect globals might miss whereas NAM/RAP/HRRR would be more likely to pick up on it. You can see that impulse moving through TN/GA here.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

There seems to be a weak impulse that moves through the area favoring this overrunning. It's pretty weak so something I expect globals might miss whereas NAM/RAP/HRRR would be more likely to pick up on it. You can see that impulse moving through TN/GA here.

Yeah the warm air advection that comes with it in the mid levels is solid, something to watch, probably would be more IP/ZR then anything

 

[jackendrickwx]

I am assuming this is the IBM GRAF model that many news stations use as their short range “futurecast”

 

[Chazwin]

Miller A's are famous for their brutal NW side cutoffs.....somewhere its gonna go from 4" to nothing over 20-30 miles.....

That is true, it’s more typical with a stronger storm. I lived in southern Cabarrus County during the 2000 Crusher and while I got right at 10 inches, just 15 miles from me in Concord got only 3 and 5 miles further northwest was dry. A weaker Miller A will typically have better FGEN forcing on the northwest side and more overrunning

 

[SD]

Watching this last piece of energy that dives into the dakotas and Minnesota late tomorrow

 

[coldfront22]

Great job to everyone on the Board preparing us for the weekend storm. Gastonia/Shelby maybe 1-2 inches Friday Night out of the second wave?