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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The trends have been there for that today. Props to the RGEM and 3k NAM
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
I still win with that look, it involves more
People as well with the east adjustment. Everything is good
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I agree. I still do well As well. I would love for everyone to see 1-3 inches. It would make everyone happy. I don’t want to see anyone get shut out
Agreed.. that’s still a good looking band showing up and wherever it pivots will likely get the most amounts… also we really need to start paying close attention to the HRRR to see where any convective areas and thundersnow tries to set up with those localized intense rates
Man, futurecast has us using up a lot of qpf on rain.
The lee side trough that develops disrupts our moisture transport off the Atlantic, we actually get a bit of warm air advection in the Coastal Plain as opposed to cold air advection which we want to see with a coastal. We needed the upper level trough to capture the low and start to bomb it before HAT, right now it looks like a close miss with capture to the north and east of us.
While typically in setups we worry about rain being a issue, this convective band that comes out the mountains carries it’s own low level cool pool aided by T/D spreads and convective processes, it’s gonna crash as soon as heavy precip falls, similar to 2013, temps aloft tomorrow are gonna be anomalously cold, gonna be very easy to crash sfc temps
No one knows what model is correct until AFTER the event occurs. Sure it could be correct OR totally off. We will know soon enough
If we all wake up with a white ground and 1-2 inches I’ll take that to the bank any day for our 3rd winter event of the season .. stack on the stats as much as we can
griteater
Member
Euro is still ticking stronger with the wave (528 contour dropping in on trend loop), while the total precip is trending weaker and bumping NE
Yes… I remember in 2013 dropping from 43 to 32 in a matter of just a few minutes.
Interesting how we’re rooting for a weaker wave to benifit the band… hopefully this trend relaxesEuro is still ticking stronger with the wave (528 contour dropping in on trend loop), while the total precip is trending weaker and bumping NE
SnowNiner
Member
Well, every storm has to Jackpot the triad in nc, so it seems legit. Lol. I don't care who jackpots, I just want more than an inch.
SnowNiner
Member
Euro is still ticking stronger with the wave (528 contour dropping in on trend loop), while the total precip is trending weaker and bumping NE
Wouldn't we expect the opposite then?
Looks like everytime this thing ticks West for the folks NE of us in the Northeast, the more it causes our band in the Carolinas to get pulled Eastward. If that trend continues, it’ll eventually pull Charlotte out the jackpot zone. Down in CAE, we’ve lost this one.
griteater
Member
I would, but who knows. Splitting hairs at this point I suppose....but the stronger the trough and vort max, and the stronger the wind max diving into the trough, the more dynamic it should be.
But you can see here how the 700mb RH holds for a few frames there just east of the Apps before moving east - common trait in this setup
griteater
Member
That futurecast has the precip starting in CLT at 4pm.....later start would be better, but like others have said, the soundings look a lot like Feb '13 and the temps crashed quickly with that one; quicker than expected I'd say
Thank you! No doubt, no one knows what's about to happen, the models sure don't. 50/50 we verify at advisory level but a meaningful event as well a zero look equally likely. There will be a few lollipops somewhere in North Carolina east of elevation, that pretty much locked IMO.
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This loop is an excellent example of the near miss, between 36 and 48hrs. Called it several days ago, I did not like the evolution around the NW Great Lakes, it disrupted with a couple other things, we wanted that energy Mach 2 wheels down through North Dakota with a little quicker/better eject from the SW.I would, but who knows. Splitting hairs at this point I suppose....but the stronger the trough and vort max, and the stronger the wind max diving into the trough, the more dynamic it should be.
But you can see here how the 700mb RH holds for a few frames there just east of the Apps before moving east - common trait in this setup
Artic front is draped, sitting at 29.3/20.7. What could have been, damn.
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