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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

@lexxnchloe​

Remember, (OUR) AFD/NWS Disco is as follows..
They are VERY conservative, & not often wrong.. (We have a great NWS office)..

(SNIP)..

Weak mid-level WAA will warm temps a little for Friday
compared to today, but still below normal around 50 degrees.
Cloud cover will be increasing during the day with cloud heights
lowering through the afternoon and evening hours.

Low pressure currently east of Florida will slowly gain latitude tonight.
Around midday tomorrow the center of low reforms closer to the
southeast coast, moving up the coast and deepening through late
Friday.

Rain chances enter the forecast beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the evening from the offshore low.

Dynamics from the strong upper level trough doesn`t come into play until Friday night. Rain should be pretty light, with
greater coverage closer to the coast, as low levels will start pretty dry and take a bit to saturate. Few outlier models, such
as NAM and CMC, increases moisture in lowest 200mb quickly during the day Friday and therefore has higher QPF amounts, but
not a fan of these solutions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

An impressive mid and upper level trough will be bearing down upon the region Friday night while its height falls lead to falling
surface pressures offshore. After a possible minor lull,,, (DRY SLOT? ) following whatever little precip falls on Friday radar echoes should start to fill back in, all while thermal profiles become more favorable for snow over rain-there seems little chance for any icy precip with this storm (for a change!).

Adjustments to our accumulations have been pretty minimal and travel impacts given the current forecast should be minimal as well, generally limited to bridges. Confidence is not high enough at this time for a Winter Weather Advisory, the only areas currently even slated to approach criteria being only portions of our most interior counties. Dynamic snow in the absence of deep moisture has trouble piling up this far south, but if there is one factor that will favor light accums is that most of the snow (Saturday morning) will have very high snow-to-liquid ratios for the area (12 to 1) leading to a much lighter and fluffier than what we normally experience. Dry air sweeps in Saturday afternoon on blustery NW winds keeping the wind chill from topping 32 in most places. As the wind grows lighter Saturday night temperatures will fall rapidly into the 20s, settling right around 20 at most beaches and the upper teens elsewhere.

Expect, 1/2 too maybe (at the most), 2" with aforementioned Forecast Disco..

It's going too be a NOWCAST Situation, as it often is here, (SENC) with Winter (Possible storms).. In our area's..
Unless We get a complete Negative tilted Phase..

Then Game on..
 
The lee side low showing up on the 18Z GFS:

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
 
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