I think the less of a coastal impact there is the more that convective line moves east .. at least that tends to look like what the models portray
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
We are all going to be fighting over the 850/700mb convergence axis tomorrow to see who gets a dusting and who gets 1-3
They're used too big storms.
Roxboro doing well there, what else is new? I’d actually cash out with that, 2-3” for here, seems about as good as we can do at this point.
If you are trying to throw a hail Mary for tomorrow evening with the coastal watch this
lexxnchloe
Member
jtgus
Member
Watch or look at? Is it a video?
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
RAH just updated AFD. The question of WWAs will be the evening shift's problem:
With that said, the latest forecast now shifts the highest snowfall
totals across the western Piedmont, where the highest water-
equivalent is forecast and where the best potential for banding
exists. Expect most areas along and west of US 1 to see light snow
of 1 to 2 inches, with the potential for some very localized/focused
higher amounts over the western/NW Piedmont. Conversely, given the
trend of lower liquid amounts across the coastal plain with the dry
slot, snowfall totals are generally less 1 inch with the potential
for some locations to see as little as a dusting.
Given there is still quite a bit of model spread and forecast
uncertainty, will hold off on issuing any headlines with the
afternoon package, deferring in hopes that forecast confidence will
continue to increase upon review of the full suite of 00z/28 model
guidance.
With that said, the latest forecast now shifts the highest snowfall
totals across the western Piedmont, where the highest water-
equivalent is forecast and where the best potential for banding
exists. Expect most areas along and west of US 1 to see light snow
of 1 to 2 inches, with the potential for some very localized/focused
higher amounts over the western/NW Piedmont. Conversely, given the
trend of lower liquid amounts across the coastal plain with the dry
slot, snowfall totals are generally less 1 inch with the potential
for some locations to see as little as a dusting.
Given there is still quite a bit of model spread and forecast
uncertainty, will hold off on issuing any headlines with the
afternoon package, deferring in hopes that forecast confidence will
continue to increase upon review of the full suite of 00z/28 model
guidance.
In this case you might eek out a stripe of heavier precipitation that might be enough to change rain to snow where the 700mb warm front is starting to shapen up and close into the eventual 700mb low. You get a little warm adnvection in orange on the right and little cold advection on the left you start to have convergence and lift.
lexxnchloe
Member
You know the rule about snow maps. We hardly ever trend up into the storm. We hang on to the couple inch maps and end up verifying low. These kinds of bands die off as they move east, in most cases...not every case. If we see more than a dusting to .5", I'll be very shocked. We needed the coastal to work out. Folks west and southwest of the Triangle will probably pick up 1-3".
Maybe in the east the nam is excited about NE NC. We all have some dry air issues below 700mb and boundary layer temperature issues so even if we have an overperfoming band here some is going to go into moistenening the column and some of going to go into cooling the boundary layer as rain
I'm still not buying into the Dry-slot (Ideas) shown on the Modeling for the Coastal area(s).. Unless it's convective feed back into the ULL further inland?
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I (Hope) I got that explanation right..
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@lexxnchloe, it means "LIFT" from frontal genesis bands? In other words, You might get snow, where-as points north, (Surf City) will get heavy rain.. (Unless "Rates" overcome).. BTW, I'm 20 +/- miles too your north in Surf City..
I (Hope) I got that explanation right..
weather bubba
Member
I think a wait and see attitude from RAH is a prudent call as of now. If the band dumping 2" to 3" over the western piedmont should continue moving east or the potential for wrap around snow from the coastal storm increases then advisories or watches and warnings may be needed. Until then, don't get the public flying to the stores to buy milk and bread before anything looks like a possibility.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
RGEM blanks western NC with the ULT. Maybe a start of a trend for the 18z model suites. Looks more like central nc getting in on the ULT
Newfound gap special