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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

We know we can’t trust the NAM .. I mean we know that right? Okay but maybe our big storms can’t be caught in advance .. something like this phased bomb potential just like JAN 2000 the models never really picked up on it until 24-48 hours out .. maybe that’s how close we need to be for models to really be able to see this complex situation unfold .. because literally every small tweak matters maybe the models just still aren’t built to catch these types of systems
 
Yeah boi

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So the NAM misses our last storm completely and doesn’t show a lick of precip 24-48 hours out.. now it’s the one leading the charge into a big snow storm 24-48 hours out .. I mean good grief if this model ends up completely wrong (which I suspect has to happen right?) I will absolutely never forgive it and or never believe it from this moment forward. I already had less than 10% confidence in it after last weekend but after this weekend .. it will be unforgivable and lose all its credibility
 
CMC looks closest to what I think will happen. A more tucked sfc low that yields a decent snow in East-Central and parts of E NC, but not a huge snow. Then the backside of the storm will fill in snow across most of NC and parts of N and C SC with the approaching trough - some pockets of decent snow with that trailing backside
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
So the NAM misses our last storm completely and doesn’t show a lick of precip 24-48 hours out.. now it’s the one leading the charge into a big snow storm 24-48 hours out .. I mean good grief if this model ends up completely wrong (which I suspect has to happen right?) I will absolutely never forgive it and or never believe it from this moment forward. I already had less than 10% confidence in it after last weekend but after this weekend .. it will be unforgivable and lose all its credibility
Click to expand...

They don't called it NAMed for nothing.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
So the NAM misses our last storm completely and doesn’t show a lick of precip 24-48 hours out.. now it’s the one leading the charge into a big snow storm 24-48 hours out .. I mean good grief if this model ends up completely wrong (which I suspect has to happen right?) I will absolutely never forgive it and or never believe it from this moment forward. I already had less than 10% confidence in it after last weekend but after this weekend .. it will be unforgivable and lose all its credibility
Click to expand...

Only use for the NAM is to see what trends it shows in the short term as an indication of what the rest of the model suite might do. It showed the faster southern shortwave which every other model followed except the GFS. That and the northern wave being further west are the two keys.
 
Watch for some decent snow showers in the STRONG NW flow in central AL. That’s some serious CAA going on Saturday.


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Been noticing that the Euro is consistently putting out higher totals than other models for the mountains along the NC/TN border. Does anyone know what’s causing that?
 
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