Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[KyloG]

RGEM followed the NAM…to quick IMO but we will see with tomorrows runs.

 

[Metwannabe]

You know many have been saying this was really close, a slight tweak here a shift there, very volatile. You can see why, seems just maybe the 0z suite is seeing something, better data in the 0zs?

 

[Mackenzie]

Giddy up??

View attachment 110843

Absolute prime positioning there for central NC! Just gotta hope the SLP realizes its true bombing potential. An RGEM-like SLP position and a NAM-like SLP strength would be the ultimate combo

 

[Metwannabe]

Notice the convective blob off coast near Bermuda isn't really there on NAM or RGEM as @ILMRoss and Shane have been pointing out and it makes a huge difference.

 

[BullCityWx]

Valid for KFFA(First flight airport, KDH):

 

[NCSNOW]

Thats a big shift for the RGEM

 

[BullCityWx]

I’m actually meaning snow actually falling across the whole state at the same time not have snow on the ground … that’s got to be very rare

I can’t say with certainty but I believe around 9AM on 1/24 it may have been snowing nearly statewide. Only place it may not have been snowing is ILM.

 

[KyloG]

RGEM with obvious nice trends past 3 runs but also see it has some work to be NAM like.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This upcoming RAP run should be interesting wonder if it starts capturing a western trend

 

[mydoortotheworld]

RGEM with obvious nice trends past 3 runs but also see it has some work to be NAM like.


View attachment 110850View attachment 110851

Someone help me out here, but something I’ve noticed is the shape of the trough between NAM & RGEM. NAM is sharper while RGEM is a bit more broad-based. Anyone with some expertise tell me what this can mean?

 

[Chazwin]

I can’t say with certainty but I believe around 9AM on 1/24 it may have been snowing nearly statewide. Only place it may not have been snowing is ILM.

It also may have happened at some point during the January’88 storm as well, but tough to see considering the SE NC had a lot of sleet

 

[NCSNOW]

It also may have happened at some point during the January’88 storm as well, but tough to see considering the SE NC had a lot of sleet

My bad it was jan 88, not 87. Typo

 

[Jon]

Someone help me out here, but something I’ve noticed is the shape of the trough between NAM & RGEM. NAM is sharper while RGEM is a bit more broad-based. Anyone with some expertise tell me what this can mean?

Broad based would mean a surface low center further east. I preface that to say keeping all things similar such as tilt and vort max center location, strength etc.


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[Myfrotho704_]

GFS looks worse at H5 with a more strung out southern stream

 

[Snowfan]

GFS is not good

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still has this but it’s not as good as the last few runs

 

[griteater]

Good luck forecasting this thing. Precip from tucked sfc low vs No precip from sfc low. Backside snow from incoming trough vs no backside snow

 

[snowlover91]

Pretty crazy to see the differences between NAM, RGEM and GFS only 2 days out.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS trending east, but keeping the backside snow around Charlotte