Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Woah. Rapid refresh has 3 inch totals over clt.

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[Myfrotho704_]

So let’s forget the rap isnt good

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

So let’s forget the rap isnt good View attachment 59739View attachment 59740View attachment 59743View attachment 59744

I think it was the first to pick up on that first snow we got last year. However that's the only time it's been right lol

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[Ollie Williams]

Y'all. It won't let me post pictures. But take a look at the rapid refresh 21z! It looks good!

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Dang,

? Same areas with max snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dang,
View attachment 59745View attachment 59746
? Same areas with max snow
View attachment 59747

Lee trough/convergence zone really favors those areas

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I think it was the first to pick up on that first snow we got last year. However that's the only time it's been right lol

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I mean it has some some support in the HRRR. HRRR isn't as widespread or heavy with it as the RAP, but maybe these models are picking up on the backend energy riding down the trough being more amped. With how cold and deep this air is, it won't take much to set the spark.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Dang,
View attachment 59745View attachment 59746
Same areas with max snow
View attachment 59747

Yeah. That would be an absolute miracle. If that came to fruition I wouldn't get much but I would be so happy for the folks south of 85 that get shafted by a lot of storms. I will just have to do some chasing! Lol

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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

And the best part of the rap is the timing. It would literally be in the middle of the day on Christmas. That would be so beautiful

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[Stephenb888]

How accurate are these locations that these models are showing? Is it really anyone’s guess or is it usually close to where the bands are showing in the models?

 

[DixieBlizzard]

WWA on Christmas Eve? Pretty cool. Again, the cold is a win. Anything above and beyond is exciting. Good luck everyone!

 

[Webberweather53]

So let’s forget the rap isnt good View attachment 59739View attachment 59740View attachment 59743View attachment 59744

Ok I’ll take everything I said back about the RAP if this is right

 

[Mitch West]

I don’t know about you guys, but I am stoked as hell About the weather we are about to have over the next 48 hours, of course I am hoping for the best in regards to the tornado threat but as far as the snow threat, I am pulling for a couple flurries down here in the armpit of hell. 00z HRRR is going to be interesting.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So let’s forget the rap isnt good View attachment 59739View attachment 59740View attachment 59743View attachment 59744

I get snow holed. So I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s bad.

 

[Ollie Williams]

For the folks interested, here's the H5 comparison between the Euro's modeled look, vs the February 2013 event.

 

[J.C.]

If the RGEM/HRRR is to be believed, this could be one of those scenarios where the DGZ is so low and relatively shallow that you could be seeing snow outside while seeing no returns on radar over your home because it's falling so low in the atmosphere.

That was how it was here on November 30th... nothing on radar and moderate snow outside!

Thats what I was about to say, the November 30th event was solid snow showers for straight six hours, when it showed up on radar is when it started to cover the deck, but most of the time it wasn’t on radar. It was the same for the next two flurry events so far this month.

 

[Deleted member 609]

T

So let’s forget the rap isnt good View attachment 59739View attachment 59740View attachment 59743View attachment 59744

All in

 

[Webberweather53]

For the folks interested, here's the H5 comparison between the Euro's modeled look, vs the February 2013 event.
View attachment 59750View attachment 59751

Yoooo chilll

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For the folks interested, here's the H5 comparison between the Euro's modeled look, vs the February 2013 event.
View attachment 59750View attachment 59751

This one is arguably better

 

[Webberweather53]

Alright I’m all in. Give me February 2013 except on the US HWY 74 corridor from Charlotte-Fayetteville ?

 

[ATLwxfan]

If the RGEM/HRRR is to be believed, this could be one of those scenarios where the DGZ is so low and relatively shallow that you could be seeing snow outside while seeing no returns on radar over your home because it's falling so low in the atmosphere.

Like a ski trip at 10,000 feet


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[Myfrotho704_]

don’t. Get. Sucked. In

 

[Clem282340]

Dang,
View attachment 59745View attachment 59746
? Same areas with max snow
View attachment 59747
[/QUOTE seems like after every model rap it keeps on increasing snow totals do you think that it would keep in increasing totals closer we get to the storm

 

[BHS1975]

don’t. Get. Sucked. In View attachment 59753View attachment 59754View attachment 59755

Right over Shane's house.


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[Clem282340]

Dang,
View attachment 59745View attachment 59746
? Same areas with max snow
View attachment 59747

Is this going to keep on increasing after every run

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

We do have to remember though. The HRRR and RAP was showing sleet last week with our rainstorm we got. That did not happen at all.

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[Snownut]

It's looking like alot of folks on this board is going to have a Very Flurry Christmas if you in WNC, NE GA, and upstate SC.

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[Myfrotho704_]

We do have to remember though. The HRRR and RAP was showing sleet last week with our rainstorm we got. That did not happen at all.

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Whole different setup tho, the hrrr has done well actually with precip associated with UL troughs, for example this setup which the NAMS struggled to show until under 24 hours

 

[Mitch West]

Alright I’m all in. Give me February 2013 except on the US HWY 74 corridor from Charlotte-Fayetteville ?

You better share dude. Haha

 

[Myfrotho704_]

But we had no shot at flurries you said????

Well to be fair this solution has sneaked into modeling, the look before would have been a no go and a widely scattered flurry at best with the best N/S energy near the GL, and not a ULL in Kentucky/Tennessee

 

[LovingGulfLows]

What's interesting is that none of the models had shown the area of snow showers over eastern Kansas at this moment that's associated with the energy near the base of the trough. This is a good example of the models not being to pick up on a shallow layer of moisture. Even the most recent NAM and HRRR runs, they're not seeing anything in that area despite the fact that there are returns showing up on radar.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What's interesting is that none of the models had shown the area of snow showers over eastern Kansas at this moment that's associated with the energy near the base of the trough. This is a good example of the models not being to pick up on a shallow layer of moisture. Even the most recent NAM and HRRR runs, they're not seeing anything in that area despite the fact that there are returns showing up on radar.

Yeah my friend @MattLabenzwx has been getting snow from this, even tho the mesos showed next to nothing

 

[MichaelJ]

I am afraid the air will be so dry that it may just end up virga for most folks outside the mountains. However with real cold air coming in and a chance at flurries on Christmas Day, this will be a rare occurrence for us and anything we see will be special

 

[Webberweather53]

We’ll to be fair this solution has sneaked into modeling, the look before would have been a no go and a widely scattered flurry at best with the best N/S energy near the GL, and not a ULL in Kentucky/Tennessee

This ^. I said a few days ago (& have repeatedly) that if you want snow from upper lows it needs to pass over you or to your south, we’ve trended that way synoptically in a big way which makes the prospects of flurries more legit. What we had before with the upper low moving over the OH river Valley and KY wouldn’t get the job done

 

[Myfrotho704_]

For the folks interested, here's the H5 comparison between the Euro's modeled look, vs the February 2013 event.
View attachment 59751View attachment 59752

I honestly still wonder how we got a MCV driven snow squall with that

 

[Chazwin]

I think it was the first to pick up on that first snow we got last year. However that's the only time it's been right lol

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Much different set up, but it also did well with the April 2, 2019 event with the band of 1-3 inch totals across NE York County, SC and into SE Union County,NC

 

[Webberweather53]

I honestly still wonder how we got a MCV driven snow squall with that

Man, that was awesome to see a bonafide MCV with an eye-like feature on radar knowing it's encapsulated by snow and not rain

 

[Webberweather53]

Man, that was awesome to see a bonafide MCV with an eye-like feature on radar knowing it's encapsulated by snow and not rain

View attachment 59763

Here's a few radar loops I posted in a twitter thread w/ Tim Buckley of the Feb 2013 event from GSP & CAE.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

00z HRRR is running ... moment of truth .. if trends were to hold steady we will see the HRRR catching up to the RAP in more expansive and convective snow

 

[Myfrotho704_]

here we go

 

[deltadog03]

If that happens and they are convection type. Somebody is going to get a quick dusting