Idk about inches, but I guess it's possible. Like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned I am concerned about the dry air.
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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Idk about inches, but I guess it's possible. Like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned I am concerned about the dry air.
I’d wait to say it would be of that magnitude yet, but the hrrr can catch things like this and it may just be catching on the what the UL trough of that magnitude would do, I mean the air aloft is stupid cold compared to the surface
Snownut
Member
That's what happened in 2010 and even upstate had a white Christmas
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BufordWX
Member
I would take this with a big grain of salt but the 18z NAM has a brief change over to snow for Atlanta on the back end of the main precipitation band tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Rosie
Member
WWA here Thurs. 1pm.
Looking into that hrrr run, I’m seeing more and more why it spat out that solution, it has a sfc trough/lee trough East of the mountains (which is classic with summer storm setups), it has a plume of moist 700s Moving in and very very steep low level lapse rates, this stuff is driven off pure convective qualities 
This will be fun. Snow moves overhead, wind picks up, flurries break through
We also have to remember, what will HELP the situation with this system is that the DGZ is going to very very low (for us outside the mtns) around the 850mb level. That will def. help.
njbarrineau
Member
Remember it like it was yesterday! And shortly thereafter on January 10, 2011, we got walloped with one of the best storms I remember in recent history. Out of school for a week! Also a Nina pattern I believe.
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I’ve looked at plenty of soundings on the hrrr and many some impressive omega in them (1- to -3) near those snow bands in the Carolinas, that would be interesting
Nam is less impressive with lower dewpoints/ dry low levels which kill it, it shows some reflectivity but the dry air is a killer, atp something between the hrrr/nam is possible with flurries and more realistic
Latest from the FFC:
The synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of
the strong frontal system. The front looks to be approaching the NW
corner of the state right around 12Z and then quickly progressing
eastward through the early afternoon. The 12Z NAM soundings do not
show much potential for wintry precipitation ahead of the front. The
potential increases significantly along and behind the front, where
the coldest air will be. Strong energy in the mid levels is
associated with this system, so do do think any available moisture
behind the front will be squeezed out. In the far north, this should
be mostly an RA=>IP=>SN transition. Further south towards the metro,
with the strong dynamic forcing aloft and lingering mid level
moisture around 8-10kft and very shallow surface moisture, a few
flurries are possible. (Flurries by definition do not accumulate.)
The synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of
the strong frontal system. The front looks to be approaching the NW
corner of the state right around 12Z and then quickly progressing
eastward through the early afternoon. The 12Z NAM soundings do not
show much potential for wintry precipitation ahead of the front. The
potential increases significantly along and behind the front, where
the coldest air will be. Strong energy in the mid levels is
associated with this system, so do do think any available moisture
behind the front will be squeezed out. In the far north, this should
be mostly an RA=>IP=>SN transition. Further south towards the metro,
with the strong dynamic forcing aloft and lingering mid level
moisture around 8-10kft and very shallow surface moisture, a few
flurries are possible. (Flurries by definition do not accumulate.)
I just noticed that they have brined 41 through Cartersville. I guess the DOT guys needed something to do.
Yeah, they have brined HWY 225 in Murray County as well.
WWA for 1-2 for areas along the escarpment....ill take it....i will say GSP has some of the best METs in the country imo very hard region to forecast if not in the top five in the country.
ATLwxfan
Member
My pants is still bursting over tha hrrr run, just your casual 8.2C low level LR, 100 joules+ of SBcape and DGZ down to 850mb, is this the southeast or Colorado ? Lol 
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All hands on deck...bring it!!
That would probably produce about 25-30:1 ratio snow. This sounding is not far off KCLT’s during the January 2003 storm. 8.5 inches of snow in Charlotte with only .27 liquid equivalent.
That is just insane, let's just hope it holds and that we don't get NAM'd!
NewnanWetather
Member
They did that all over Ga even in Coweta.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Getting mildly interested here. Would be pretty cool to have a snow shower Christmas morning.
BHS1975
Member
If you get under one of those cells it will be puking dandruff.
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So you’re telling me there’s a chance
ATLwxfan
Member
I’d like it more if we had more than one mesoscale model supporting this. The NAM is not interested in a convective event. That’s a problem we will need to see change in the next run or two.
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LovingGulfLows
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RGEM and HRRR are both showing some pretty widespread snow flurries/showers....at least through our area. I'm pretty confident some areas of metro ATL will see snow fall late Thursday night through Friday morning.
That one was a banger! One of my all time favorites. Lee side trough ftw
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Phew boy, I just saw the 18z HRRR.
Speaking of 2013 Lee side trough event. That one was very unexpected. Turned out to be extremely convective. Probably a bit different than this setup though because temps were in the low 40’s. I accumulated several inches of snow around 40 degrees that day. Epic
This was what the February 2013 Lee side trough event did. What a great day that was.
Picture I took after it was done
Picture I took after it was done
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea that was a good one. Got about 3 inches
LovingGulfLows
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If the RGEM/HRRR is to be believed, this could be one of those scenarios where the DGZ is so low and relatively shallow that you could be seeing snow outside while seeing no returns on radar over your home because it's falling so low in the atmosphere.
carolinachaos
Member
I definitely remember this event, I drove from Charlotte to Florence, by the time I got off I-20 it was moderately snowing in Florence had about 2” from that system.
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Snownut
Member
What's the chance someone could see thunder snow out of this thing.
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That was how it was here on November 30th... nothing on radar and moderate snow outside!
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
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Y'all. It won't let me post pictures. But take a look at the rapid refresh 21z! It looks good!
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Same as 15z. Forms a nice band over the nc/sc border.
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