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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

From Spann.


MUCH COLDER THURSDAY: After a windy, wet night, temperatures will fall into the 30s Thursday, and we are forecasting some light snow, light sleet, and the potential for snow showers in the cold air over parts of Alabama, mainly east of I-65 and north of I-20.
The current forecast is for no meaningful accumulation or impact, although grassy areas could become white across the northeast corner of the state, especially across higher terrain.
But, in any winter weather situation it is always best to avoid a deterministic forecast (a forecast that does not include expression of the associated uncertainty). We like to present a range of possibilities, and the attached maps do that. You can see the most likely case (as described above), along with a "boom" and "bust" forecast. These are not expected, but are a possibility.
The "bust" scenario is basically no snow at all. On the other hand, the "boom" forecast is for two inches of snow over the northeast corner of the state, 1 inch around Gadsden, and a quarter of an inch for Birmingham.
I will have a new Weather Xtreme video and discussion posted early tomorrow morning as we have some time to look at new data. One way or another, it will be COLD Thursday and Friday across Alabama!


 
Winter Storm said:
From Spann.


MUCH COLDER THURSDAY: After a windy, wet night, temperatures will fall into the 30s Thursday, and we are forecasting some light snow, light sleet, and the potential for snow showers in the cold air over parts of Alabama, mainly east of I-65 and north of I-20.
The current forecast is for no meaningful accumulation or impact, although grassy areas could become white across the northeast corner of the state, especially across higher terrain.
But, in any winter weather situation it is always best to avoid a deterministic forecast (a forecast that does not include expression of the associated uncertainty). We like to present a range of possibilities, and the attached maps do that. You can see the most likely case (as described above), along with a "boom" and "bust" forecast. These are not expected, but are a possibility.
The "bust" scenario is basically no snow at all. On the other hand, the "boom" forecast is for two inches of snow over the northeast corner of the state, 1 inch around Gadsden, and a quarter of an inch for Birmingham.
I will have a new Weather Xtreme video and discussion posted early tomorrow morning as we have some time to look at new data. One way or another, it will be COLD Thursday and Friday across Alabama!


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Love how he’s laying out the different scenarios here. This is a huge improvement from the old “just tell me what it’s gonna do” days. Spann does a great job of explaining the possibilities and letting the readers make their own assessments.
 
It’s just so odd the GEFS have been constantly on this would be crazy if something like that actually occurred and it was the only one to see it .... but it will not haha
 
Gonna be funny if the gefs scores with this storm when people are in doubt. Doesn't matter what weather site shows who's getting what and how much, models are coming around with agreement that lot of us are gonna see Christmas snow showers. So all of you doubting Tom's up in here please don't shattered other "White Christmas dreams"!!
 
BufordWX said:
06z HRRR would certainly be interesting. It has solid coverage of flurries and snow showers for TN, AL, and GA. Even has some breaking out in SC at the end.View attachment 59582
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Looks like the RGEM, the hrrr shows some Convective qualities with it with very steep low level lapse rates/minimal SBcape/DCAPE, while Convective bursts of snow is unlikely, it’s something to keep in mind C97E424E-4622-49F1-A451-504939FE3C01.png9DBD0CAD-414A-493D-A9B4-41E21DAC48C0.png409DE5AD-4DE2-411C-94C4-964AD703368B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like the RGEM, the hrrr shows some Convective qualities with it with very steep low level lapse rates/minimal SBcape/DCAPE, while Convective bursts of snow is unlikely, it’s something to keep in mind View attachment 59584View attachment 59585View attachment 59586
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One thing that intrigues me is that temperature will be in the low 30s and upper 20s in spots where these flurries and snow showers are. If you manage to see any convective snow burst or even a period of light snow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone get a quick dusting or even a little more.
 
BufordWX said:
One thing that intrigues me is that temperature will be in the low 30s and upper 20s in spots where these flurries and snow showers are. If you manage to see any convective snow burst or even a period of light snow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone get a quick dusting or even a little more.
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Yeah that could very well be a possibility, won’t be wet snow
 
Loganelliott99 said:
06 GEFS on cod increase totals quite a bit across North Carolina and even South Carolina but lowered over Georgia and Alabama. Anyone have the weather models or weather bell GEFS?

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Pretty big increase out across I-40 into the triad and even down into the northern Charlotte suburbs.
1608726087503.png
 
I think with all the model agreement coming in, it's safe to say most on this board will at the minimum see Flurries tomorrow night and Christmas morning.

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I'm hugging the RGEM

snku_acc.us_se.png
 
Bsud said:
I think with all the model agreement coming in, it's safe to say most on this board will at the minimum see Flurries tomorrow night and Christmas morning.

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Accept Pickens and oconee county in sc. all models have flurries going around those two counties


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The coldest high temp on Christmas in Atlanta was in 1983 with a high of 17, which is pretty remarkable. The warmest Christmas was 75 in 2015 !
 
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