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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

accu35 said:
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The stripes of “snow” oriented SW/NE make it pretty clear the flaws in these CoD ensemble member maps, using the P-type at the end of every 6 hr segment to define the P-type for the entire 6 hr segment. In this setup with temperatures crashing after the cold front as precip ends, these maps are useless, as a result. There’s nothing wrong with the GEFS itself. Most of these GEFS ensemble members are showing little, if any, snow.
 
Even this is out to lunch imo, GEFS is likely to bullish with this setup, I don’t even know why it’s still being posted for the anafront itself on COD, the meso models don’t even show that much like GEFS on COD does, imo I’d be more excited over the clipper, those COD maps should be getting deleted as there basically misinformation
There’s gonna be snowflakes for several people, that’s enough as it is 1B9E0F82-D51B-4369-9A50-1310E0FCE4C2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even this is out to lunch imo, GEFS is likely to bullish with this setup, I don’t even know why it’s still being posted for the anafront itself on COD, the meso models don’t even show that much, imo I’d be more excited over the clipper, those COD maps should be getting deleted as there basically misinformation View attachment 59502
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Haven't hired independent fact checkers yet
 
MotoWeatherman said:
I wish people would stop posting COD GEFS maps as they are complete garbage
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COD maps work in other situations but have been known to stink with analfronts, honestly they should be deleted on spot here, because there is some folks that just lurk and might take it 100% serious
 
I understand the excitement of the possibility of flurries and snow showers on Christmas in the SE but don't get fooled by these "trends" (few models support accumulating snowfall). And these snowfall maps. Yes, some of us will see some flurries but this WILL NOT be a big deal. They will be novelty flakes for most of us. I am more interested in the upcoming pattern than I am about Christmas, TBH. Again, the cold on Christmas Day will be a much bigger story than snow. Unless you're in Buffalo or the mountains of E. TN or NC, that is. I know, I am being a 'Debbie Downer' but let's really try and be realistic about this.
 
ryan1234 said:
I understand the excitement of the possibility of flurries and snow showers on Christmas in the SE but don't get fooled by these "trends" (few models support accumulating snowfall). And these snowfall maps. Yes, some of us will see some flurries but this WILL NOT be a big deal. They will be novelty flakes for most of us. I am more interested in the upcoming pattern than I am about Christmas, TBH. Again, the cold on Christmas Day will be a much bigger story than snow. Unless you're in Buffalo or the mountains of E. TN or NC, that is. I know, I am being a 'Debbie Downer' but let's really try and be realistic about this.
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No one said it was a big deal. If we can get a dusting or even an 1” like the NWS said we could in my area I’ll be like a kid on Christmas (eve)
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
No one said it was a big deal. If we can get a dusting or even an 1” like the NWS said we could in my area I’ll be like a kid on Christmas (eve)
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I definitely would not be expecting an inch of snow in Cumming. Drive to the higher elevations on N. GA, I could see it. A dusting- maybe. But it will be very isolated in regards to who may get a dusting.
 
I’m all in on a novelty flake. Not expecting much here in Madison/Huntsville, but it would be nice to see some falling even if it doesn’t stick. I don’t post much but I appreciate everyone on this board. I learn a lot just by reading the more knowledgeable posters. Thanks everyone.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Euro basically shows “snow in the mountains/E TN with flurries possible for areas outside “ View attachment 59508
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This is a much better depiction of what to expect for the SE. Good gracious, it’s Christmas. Quit hating on me for having some amateur knowledge when it comes to snow in the SE. Been here all my life.
 
NoSnowATL said:
That’s more like it.
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Exactly, imo it trended better with that energy associated with the clipper, and has more moist Profiles with the N/S energy, which supports the ideas of scattered snow flurries around much of the SE, that’s a Win with a cold Christmas, and way better than the oven roast we’ve been in the past several years on Christmas 27F68370-FCA2-4EFC-81F1-D3F8615918EF.pngECAC8498-9B1D-4BAE-9C17-05CB65A177A0.png5F5B8734-5D28-432D-9404-EC16DD59A3DA.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly, imo it trended better with that energy associated with the clipper, and has more moist Profiles with the N/S energy, which supports the ideas of scattered snow flurries around much of the SE, that’s a Win with a cold Christmas, and way better than the oven roast we’ve been in the past several years on Christmas View attachment 59509View attachment 59510View attachment 59511
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I think we will see some dry flurries and that a win in my book. I’m on to January for a actual storm hopefully.
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think we will see some dry flurries and that a win in my book. I’m on to January for a actual storm hopefully.
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Yeah towards the New Years we get the possible miller B look and then after that big block might retrograde towards a position that’s ?
I’m pretty sure some will find out what a real snow is soon, especially as we get that possible SSWE/+EAMT driven +PNA/blocking combo
 
ryan1234 said:
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This is a much better depiction of what to expect for the SE. Good gracious, it’s Christmas. Quit hating on me for having some amateur knowledge when it comes to snow in the SE. Been here all my life.
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The problem is that everyone knows how difficult it is to get snow out of a set-up like this. So, instead of yelling at everyone about why it will not snow, tell them what has to happen in order for them to get something more substantial. That's what folks want to know. Trends....
 
Truth is, betting against snow regionally, is like shooting fish in a barrel. 95% of the time, it takes no skill to make that call. Threading that proverbial needle is a 40+ year hobby. Hell, I'll still squint at a damn spotlight in hopes of seeing a flake. I'm that idiot with a halogen flashlight hoping to illuminate that one damn flake as it melts on contact. You think if there is a 30% chance of a measly flurry, on Christmas Eve no less, that and I am not going to track it? Call me unrealistic all you want and kiss my butt too! It's what I do! :)
 
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