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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

There’s just no way we sneak a snow shower into SC. The mountains won’t allow it. Maybe I’ll get drizzle ??
 
HSV AFD

“
It's at this point in the forecast that things get interesting. As
with any case of potential winter weather across the Southeast, you
normally have the available moisture, or the unseasonably cold air,
but rarely both at the same time to provide the much-requested
winter wonderland for Christmas Eve. This case is no different, and
despite the ensembles highlighting inches and inches of snow
occurring in the wake of the cold front, sounding analysis just
doesn't support it. The greatest lift arrives as much of the best
moisture has already vacated the area to the E, which lowers the
snowfall amounts significantly in an event like this.

Here's what I think will truly happen (which is hard to depict the
fine-resolution of such thinking in a gridded forecast): The bulk of
the rain will push E just as the coldest air arrives into the area
from the NW. Maybe one "heavier" snow band will set up and ride
along with what's left of the greatest lift in the wake of the front,
and then we'll get a dusting or less from that burst of snow. A bit
of a break is expected for a few hours that morning, and then as
another piece of energy rotates through the base of the trof aloft
across the OH and northern TN Valley, we'll see some snow showers
across N AL/Southern Middle TN. This won't be enough to cause much
in the way of additional accumulations, but for those of you (like
me) who just like to see the snow fall from the sky, then this
forecast is for you! Models hint at maybe a little more accumulation
than a dusting in the higher terrain of NE Alabama and Southern
Middle TN, but overall snowfall totals range from a few tenths in NW
AL to perhaps 0.5-0.7" in higher terrain locations. There is still a
little uncertainty with this event, despite being 24-36 hours out.
Stay tuned as additional forecast updates are expected.”
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 59490
Click to expand...

I can’t keep getting sucked in like this
This is way over amped
148c0a92868c68438f154a6d28d5ddad.jpg
 
RGEM still looks like best case scenario to me. Moist 925s and 850s....700s still dry as a bone so it'll be hard to get any widespread snow shield to form. Flurries and Snow showers from isolated pockets of deeper moisture and lift still looks to be on tap. Confidence is definitely growing, at least for the Atlanta area that we will see some snow fall Christmas Eve night.
 
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