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Pattern Magnificent March

SD said:
Anyone got the euro for Sunday

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It's for Monday but it's the best it gets.
ecmwf_ptype_se_168.png
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Not trying to be difficult or combative, but I am afraid I don't understand what you are talking about. Upper level lows can do strange things due to the cold core nature of these systems. It is common to have accumulating snows underneath them when areas farther north are too warm to support frozen precip. It is all about the strength of the low, the track of the low, and the speed of the system.
Yes, I can remember times when it didn't work out due to one of these being less than favorable. However, that Nov,1st snowstorm in the mid-lands of SC, still serves as a reminder that strange things do happen. Don't discount this set-up just because it's in March.
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And its not like there isn't any cold air around. Lots of bad things to overcome this time of year but there is potential in my opinion:weenie:
 
12z EPS for RDU. Decent agreement on timing...backside fun on exit seems like a possibility.
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Don't tell James Spann but the tornado sirens went off in my neck of the woods (central Mississippi) a few minutes ago. Nothing much though.
 
Be interesting to see if tonight's Euro, Gfs and CMC runs support this track... Wonder what are the chances this sets up a little further west... and gives the Southern Apps a blizzard...
 
I'll be the first to admit, I certainly have underestimated the intensity and longevity of this ongoing -NAO/E Canada blocking regime. While wave activity accumulation from a weaker than normal Aleutian low, unfavorable tropical forcing, and a less than stellar interannual background state have favored a rapid breakdown of this blocking high, high frequency eddy fluxes generated from successive non-linear cyclonic wave breaking of synoptic-scale Rossby Waves over eastern North America have continuously amplified the block and the lower total column ozone (TCO) in the mid-latitudes induced by acceleration of the poleward branch of the BDC in the recent sudden stratospheric warming event/polar vortex split has likely slowed down the mixing process that hastens their eventual decay. Once these cyclonic wave breaking events near the eastern seaboard from come to a halt, aforementioned mixing and ekman pumping will restore the Icelandic Vortex. (ekman pumping is essentially a process by which anticyclonic wind stress leads to net convergence into a high pressure center that allows it to accrue mass with time and vis versa w/ cyclonic gyres (this works in both the ocean and atmosphere))
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Webberweather53 said:
I'll be the first to admit, I certainly have underestimated the intensity and longevity of this ongoing -NAO/E Canada blocking regime. While wave activity accumulation from a weaker than normal Aleutian low, unfavorable tropical forcing, and a less than stellar interannual background state have favored a rapid breakdown of this blocking high, high frequency eddy fluxes generated from successive non-linear cyclonic wave breaking of synoptic-scale Rossby Waves over eastern North America have continuously amplified the block and the lower total column ozone (TCO) in the mid-latitudes induced by acceleration of the poleward branch of the BDC in the recent sudden stratospheric warming event/polar vortex split has likely slowed down the mixing process that hastens their eventual decay. Once these cyclonic wave breaking events near the eastern seaboard from come to a halt, aforementioned mixing and ekman pumping will restore the Icelandic Vortex. (ekman pumping is essentially a process by which anticyclonic wind stress leads to net convergence into a high pressure center that allows it to accrue mass with time and vis versa w/ cyclonic gyres (this works in both the ocean and atmosphere))
354b4f40-4083-41b3-84c8-1bf885d4c906.gif
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What a great explanation, Webb!
Thanks ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol and just like that it appears all hope for VA is gone overnight. 12 inches to 1. I bet the MA boards are melting down this morning.
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Lol gone ?? I guess you missed the GEFS and the GEPS . The eps was a step back for them as it’s much slower ejecting energy and it gets suppressed . I’m all in on this one since I’m gonna be up that way . But like I said , Im sure I’ll bring rain and upper 30s so they should lower their expectations


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It would be great to get an inch or two of snow this time of year, but it is still so far away in terms of the models.
 
Storm5 said:
12z icon with love to NC. Of course if the modeled snow from the icon actually verified this winter NC would still be digging out


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Mountains of NC gonna try and make a half hearted run at March 1960 lol. Should net 3 to 6 by Thursday, espeacilly northern mtns, possibly more up at slopes. Then like you said the ICON is a big thumper at H5 for them late weekend into Mon, if it verefies. saw some euro ens members with same scenerio. So it may not be to far out in left field.
 
NCSNOW said:
Mountains of NC gonna try and make a half hearted run at March 1960 lol. Should net 3 to 6 by Thursday, espeacilly northern mtns, possibly more up at slopes. Then like you said the ICON is a big thumper at H5 for them late weekend into Mon, if it verefies. saw some euro ens members with same scenerio. So it may not be to far out in left field.
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the eps has been all over the place . NOT saying it’s wrong but the 00z run was a big shift from previous runs.


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Just an observation from the gallery ... the 12Z Euro is pretty nice for mid-March ... No SER and some transient digging ... :oops:

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Edit:

CPC is right there as well for mid-month ...

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and then keeps us all at N for the duration ... :cool:
 
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The real down side of spring this away (other than pollen) ...

Screen Shot 2018-03-06 at 5.35.07 PM.png

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITY...BREEZY WINDS...AND
HIGH ERC VALUES FOR FIRE WEATHER
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Fire
Weather Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday afternoon.
* WIND...West northwest winds 10 to 15 mph during the early
morning hours...increasing to 15 to 25 mph by mid-morning with
frequent gusts to 25 mph.
* HUMIDITY...23 to 28 percent from the late morning through late
afternoon hours.
* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur.

~~~~~~~

There is so much Irma debris in the woods, if anything flares, it'll have plenty to work with ... :(
 
Never got out of the 40’s here in the upstate today. Supposed to hit 27 Thursday and I saw blooms on the apple trees on Monday. Not good
 
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