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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

The QPF being spit out by several major NWP models can certainly support 5-10" swath somewhere near or just west of Raleigh w/ ratios >10-12:1 especially considering the fact that most have only continued to trend wetter as we've drawn closer to verification
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Tell me what you think, but I actually think this could shift a little south and east. Over GA, SC and in NC. Got to watch trends but could super put RDU in the “sweet spot”
 
Tell me what you think, but I actually think this could shift a little south and east. Over GA, SC and in NC. Got to watch trends but could super put RDU in the “sweet spot”

I would probably draw a 5-9 right up the US-1 corridor from Moore County and points N to the VA state line and then push it as far west possibly as Greensboro or Burlington and obviously there's going to be higher isolated amounts. The models currently support this idea in general (even though the 10:1 SLR maps are meh (and rightfully so) and if they trend any wetter we're going to be sitting right in the middle of that ballpark
 
Congrats :) I know how frustrating it must be to live in that area during the winter time. I used to live in west central ga and always felt bad for Montgomery area during winter. I knew your area was looking good based off radar trends. Hope you guys get some more.
Yes to all of that. I'm super excited! We're overdue. :) It's still coming down hard here.
 
Oh, you'll like it Chris. It's micro, but it's coming down to beat the band. I just like standing out there listening to it. This stuff is going to make for bad driving because it's close to grapple/sleet/ ice grains. It makes a fine sound, not my sleet, but worth the wait. I'm at 28 now.
Awesome T !!! We are closing in on 40. Dropping quickly
 
I feel like Atlanta is right on the border of getting some good snowfall tonight. Radar trends are looking so good. Gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out.
 
I would probably draw a 5-9 right up the US-1 corridor from Moore County and points N to the VA state line and then push it as far west possibly as Greensboro or Burlington and obviously there's going to be higher isolated amounts. The models currently support this idea in general (even though the 10:1 SLR maps are meh (and rightfully so) and if they trend any wetter we're going to be sitting right in the middle of that ballpark
I would agree
I think it’s about to try and go negatively tilted quicker
https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_common+12
 
Steady, light to moderate snow in north ATL, inside the perimeter. Really hasn’t ever stopped, but never gotten too heavy either. About a 1/2” so far, but flakes are a little bigger and roads getting coated. Streets are a ghost town now so that is good!
 
I 10 west bound over the bay way pin mobile is closed due to accident and icy road conditions. Met on fox 10 out of mobile says cars are icing up with freezing rain and sleet. Could be a big problem tomorrow as it is only going to get above freezing for a couple hours tomorrow towards mid day.
 
If the Euro totals are true for Atlanta and my area, it's going to have to average about 3/8" an hour for the next 6.5 hours. I have 3/8" total now after 4 hours of snowfall. I don't see it. Maybe we double or get close to one inch.
 
Yep I agree. And the Euro is wetter this run too w/ 0.5" QPF in Raleigh. The HRRR is even more bullish w/ 0.6-0.7" and it's still coming down.
The Euro amped up the totals yet again...
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I agree. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the heavier band is a bit further south near CSG to MCN either
 
If the Euro totals are true for Atlanta and my area, it's going to have to average about 3/8" an hour for the next 6.5 hours. I have 3/8" total now after 4 hours of snowfall. I don't see it. Maybe we double or get close to one inch.

I am just hoping a heavier band sets up to reach those totals.
 
NWS GSP: "
As of 1230 AM EST Wednesday: Still trying to hit the moving
target. Once again, the new model guidance comes in with more precip
than previously thought, continuing the upward trend in snowfall
potential. Have not made any changes to temps, precip prob, or
snow amount with this update. What I find most interesting is how
the models develop the precip across the Piedmont in the pre-dawn
hours and around daybreak. Pay no attention to the precip upstream
moving from Alabama into Georgia, because that`s not what is going
to get us. Instead, the models show the precip blossoming across
the Piedmont, right over the top of us, in the 09Z to 12Z time
frame. Most impressive if it actually happens that way."
 
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