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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1


Ugh, I should've taken the risk and went with a Raleigh bust in the snowfall contest thread. I did that in the last snowfall contest where I believe I predicted Memphis to bust and they ended up performing at or above their expected totals which totally screwed me.

Anyways, huge congratulations to everyone who got accumulating snow yesterday especially the areas that scored bigly! Very cool to see some of the areas that have been historically screwed over in recent years finally get a big one. I just hope that karma works one day in my favor and I see a big one eventually.
 
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Hello from above the Arctic Circle in Rowan County, NC. What an unbelievable storm. My door hit a snow drift when I opened it! Never thought I’d see the day.
 
I can’t imagine putting stock into a 18z HRRR run 20+ hours out.

For folks over towards Raleigh, my worry level wouldn’t be too high. Just overreaction to a model that has flopped more than LeBron and can’t even get hour 0 right. (Pretty sure NAM3 isn’t doing well even at hr3 either.)
Sometimes, as it turns out, LeBron actually does get fouled ….
 
Finished with close to 5 inches. Before 2 pm yesterday we were sitting at 2.5 inches thinking we were done with the sun peaking through. Then for about 8 hours it light to moderately snowed bringing us up to 5. Such a cool storm for a lot of people! Enjoyed going through almost all of the posts!
 
Updated map. Looks like the Triangle was able to get a little more than I thought.
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All 100 counties in NC got over an inch of snow… I’m curious if that sets a record. Other statewide snow storms I’ve seen accumulation maps of had at least a few counties with 0 or just a trace.
 
Can someone smart and with access do an autopsy of the models and see what did good and what sucked? It would be nice to know what to count on. (Long med and short range really since there was so much variation for all of them)
 
Updated map. Looks like the Triangle was able to get a little more than I thought.
View attachment 193153
I think some snow bands were training over the same areas because the overall system was slow to move out. The eastern half of Wake County got anywhere from 5-6 inches with the heavy bands

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Updated map. Looks like the Triangle was able to get a little more than I thought.
View attachment 193153
5.5” seems high here, but maybe I just can’t measure. I got 4.5” and am right about where the 5.5” is on the Orange / Durham County border.
 
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