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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Caution peeps now not to freak out over what is showing at the surface.... I'm telling you we have seen this song and dance more than once this Winter. I don't know why models are struggling with precip when we have jet streaks like that but they are.... give me that look we will be fine
 
Stormlover said:
26814732_981562648664703_8129263726707654159_n.png
through midnight tues night
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Its snowing in the 20s even down to Montgomery
 
I don't know that we can call all of the runs bogus, but if everything is showing what we are seeing but with little moisture...uh yeah.
 
This system is gonna have some surprises with it. With temps as cold as they are, if models are off by even just a little with the QPF, then this will be 2014 all over again in Alabama. Roads will be gridlocked.
 
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't know that we can call all of the runs bogus, but if everything is showing what we are seeing but with little moisture...uh yeah.
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uh, no, not needing much moisture at all for this. most all of northern half of ala getting .05 qpf, withe some above .10 and a small area above .15
 
It doesn't cutoff either so that may be part of the issue... this may be something to watch moving forward tonight since it has been sampled better now, not sure
 
metwannabe said:
Caution peeps now not to freak out over what is showing at the surface.... I'm telling you we have seen this song and dance more than once this Winter. I don't know why models are struggling with precip when we have jet streaks like that but they are.... give me that look we will be fine
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For real. That look argues for a nice precip shield across GA/SC/NC.


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Parker said:
This system is gonna have some surprises with it. With temps as cold as they are, if models are off by even just a little with the QPF, then this will be 2014 all over again in Alabama. Roads will be gridlocked.
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Except this time people in Birmingham know its coming so the roads will be treated ahead of time.
 
Stormlover said:
uh, no, not needing much moisture at all for this
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You're most likely good in AL, you're going to get a nice little event.

We're just all puzzled about what we're seeing eastward with the looks that we're seeing on the other maps. I'm not centered on where I am, or anywhere else.
 
C
GeorgiaGirl said:
You're most likely good in AL, you're going to get a nice little event.

We're just all puzzled about what we're seeing eastward with the looks that we're seeing on the other maps. I'm not centered on where I am, or anywhere else.
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I would say most of Alabama north of Birmingham is bet for safe 1-3 inches.
 
Jon said:
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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The earlier WPC discussion threw out the nam and Euro for being too amped and went with the middle of the road UKMET/Canadian blend.
 
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With what I have been told on here, why this doesn't have more precip produced from it, I really don't know...
 

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Jon said:
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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Not sure why you're saying that because it's pretty clear to me the NAM is trending away from the GFS w/ a slower & deeper s/w at the base of this longwave over the MS valley & is consolidating the vort max over the past few runs...
 
I guess one could make the argument that a Bermuda High giving SW wind doesn't always equate to afternoon thunderstorms in the summertime. I dunno. If you mets are stunned, then I'm inherently at a loss.
 
packfan98 said:
The earlier WPC discussion threw out the nam and Euro for being too amped and went with the middle of the road UKMET/Canadian blend.
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Middle of the road wouldn’t be too bad and may be more ideal for NC. In fact, I don’t like the cutoff say east of the Appalachians, that just amps it up too much and jackpots VA.


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Webb didn't you make this almost exact argument for more precip before the early Dec. storm, reference the jet streak and what models were showing?

 
Not sure what happened to the NAM after 48 hours but it actually trended away from the GFS and towards a stronger, more consolidated vorticity max earlier in the run and the trough axis was tilting more neutral sooner...
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Webberweather53 said:
Not sure why you're saying that because it's pretty clear to me the NAM is trending away from the GFS w/ a slower & deeper s/w at the base of this longwave over the MS valley & is consolidating the vort max over the past few runs...
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You’re right it is slower and deeper, my thought was just going from a cutoff (which have only been some by Nam and Euro) to a non cutoff solution (despite the slower and dapper progression of the vort) was trending toward something more like the GFS, not that it’s identical by any means.


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metwannabe said:
Webb didn't you make this almost exact argument for more precip before the early Dec. storm, reference the jet streak and what models were showing?

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Yeah I did, and it wasn't until we got within about 24-36 hours of the event that any model ever saw it coming. Granted we had a positively tilted trough axis that extended all the way to the desert southwest, while we don't have that here, the SW-WSWly flow is nothing to sneeze at.
 
Jon said:
You’re right it is slower and deeper, my thought was just going from a cutoff (which have only been some by Nam and Euro) to a non cutoff solution (despite the slower and dapper progression of the vort) was trending toward something more like the GFS, not that it’s identical by any means.


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Yeah well it is also near truncation on the NAM that the cut-off fails to transpire so it's not too worrisome for the moment, especially given the changes earlier in the run that actually were more favorable to a cut-off ULL
 
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I think the problem here is the mountain elevation. Notice how everyone west of the Applachians gets in on the initial frontal precipitation but once it tries to cross the mountains everything disappears. That's the biggest factor here for folks on the other side IMO. Jets streak or no jet streak, elevation will cripple a system every time
 
Off topic, but kinda important in my real life situation right now: If anyone has a carfax that could please give me a report on a vin; that would be awesome. Send me a message, please. Thanks!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think the problem here is the mountain elevation. Notice how everyone west of the Applachians gets in on the initial frontal precipitation but once it tries to cross the mountains everything disappears. That's the biggest factor here for folks on the other side IMO. Jets streak or no jet streak, elevation will cripple a system every time
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No, I’m with storm fury on this one. 850mb vectors get chaotic at hr 45 in GOM shift from SW to W basically shunting off moisture transport. If the mountains were a big issue, we would likely be having temperature issues east of MTNS.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think the problem here is the mountain elevation. Notice how everyone west of the Applachians gets in on the initial frontal precipitation but once it tries to cross the mountains everything disappears. That's the biggest factor here for folks on the other side IMO. Jets streak or no jet streak, elevation will cripple a system every time
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Tell that to March 1927, March 1960, January 2000, January 2003, & March 2010. Just because a storm crosses the Appalachians doesn't automatically mean its going to be completely crippled when it comes out on the other side. These are just a few examples of success stories in NC...
March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap .png
March 9-10 1960 Snowmap.png
February 9 1979 NC Snowmap.png
January 17-18 2000 NC Snowmap.gif
January 23 2003 NC Snowmap.gif
March 2-3 2010 NC Snowmap.gif
 
In fact to add onto that.. looking at 500mb wind vectors by the time precip gets to Georgia there more SW and stronger.. makes no sense to me why precip just dies.. 850mb shouldn’t just shift W like that with 500mb still SW so there definitely seems to me like there is a disconnect. I’m still learning Synoptics, so if anyone wants to shed some light, please do.
 
I feel like we are looking for reasons the models are wrong.. maybe they are right?
 
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