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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Be careful with the simulated radar from NAM (in all resolutions), it makes things look way better than they are.
 
nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png
 
Using the accumulated precipitation maps is key with NAM; and then cut the total by around 1/3rd.
 

That is literally coming from an elongated ugly look; it is forcing what little precipitable water in the atmosphere out. We need it to stream moisture in from the Gulf to give a big deal.
 
That is literally coming from an elongated ugly look; it is forcing what little precipitable water in the atmosphere out. We need it to stream moisture in from the Gulf to give a big deal.
It is getting closure to that right??
 
In fact, this run while maybe looking a tad bit better on surface imagery, is faster than the 00z NAM with less energy in the base.
 
Just for comparison's sake, the Jan 28 2014 snow event qpf total for CHA was only .11. They're calling for roughly the same amount this go around. No idea if there are enough similarities with these 2 systems though. CHA had 1.2 inches of snow, in temps rapidly falling to the teens. Was a crazy little system.
 
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By 84, I would be surprised if there is just absolutely no neutral tilt until well out into the Atlantic.

There is a plus though; this system could go on to produce a potential -NAO, while brief, to help us out with a true Miller-A down the road.

A couple days ago, @WeatherNC spoke about something after this light chance. Maybe it will help.
 
For my Lexington, SC friends (a couple of you here), the NAM throws some simulated flurry activity to us, down into North of the town of Aiken:

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_51.png
 
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So that energy that is in the gulf we need it too slow down some for it to help out things?? Right??

The problem with this, is it's 24 hours or so out and take a look at those wind directions. Fail city; redundant/squashed/progressive based dud energy. Maybe some fishy precip out in the Atlantic.
 
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