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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Stormlover said:
What concerns me is the potential for a period of melting followed by a quick freeze...A situation similar to January 2014. I'm not saying it WILL, but the ingredients may be there. Roads will have a chance to warm tomorrow and into Tuesday before the arctic front pushes through. Depending on how much snow falls and how quickly it falls, we may see a rapid glaze situation.
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He absolutely is right. That's the biggest concern there and WWAs will have to be issued that specifically note that.
 
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Latest SREF for Birmingham has a mean of .39, but has more members over 3/4 of an inch than any run so far. 8 members over the .39 inch mean. Max member is 2.67.
 
MRX calling for .6 inches... no advisories yet, I guess they're waiting until after tonight's runs...
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Yeah I think the SREF plumes actually went up slightly eastward. Nitpicking though, especially in my case where there was one that may have really skewed it.
 
SCweather said:
Checking plumes, they went up for most areas in the Carolinas.
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In this area, the chance dropped 5%, though... closer to 15% chance vs 20% on the last run ;) Which I still agree with, so I won't toss the SREF this time, either.
 
Upstate SC has a mean of 1" but some has went up. But I just do not see us getting over an inch out of this. I could be wrong and would love to see 2 or 3. But I don't see it happening.

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whamby said:
MRX calling for .6 inches... no advisories yet, I guess they're waiting until after tonight's runs...
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Probably see an advisory go up with tomorrow afternoons package. 3 or 4pm ish. Even if amounts are light this could be quite interesting if onset is the late afternoon commute.
 
1 think to watch for also is how much energy comes crashing on shore. EURO had more of it on the 12z run as well....
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here comes the 0z NAM, our s/w should be at least partially sampled by now in the relatively more dense RAOB network in the contiguous US...
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See here's a lesson for you kiddos, if you're going to announce a model is running this is how you do it.....
 
Per SREF for me.. Looking definitely "impactfull" with timing (predawn into morning commute) with air temps near 20.. .. mean was .38 Going to be another "no win" for school admins making the call...
 
The SREF mean for me is .69 on .07 qpf...less than 10 to 1..that's wrong. Might as well as clearly say that would be over an inch.
 
Stormlover said:
The SREF mean for me is .69 on .07 qpf...less than 10 to 1..that's wrong. Might as well as clearly say that would be over an inch.
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I thought the same thing for Bham. Mean QPF is .05 for BHAM, which would easily be close to an inch with higher ratios, so if the SREF plumes are going off of 10:1 ratios then I think its safe to multiply the mean by at least 1.5.
 
Jon said:
Getting rid of the 13” outlier it was 1” :(


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Yep. Even though it's the SREF the spread on the 21z suite seems pretty reasonable in general w/ anything from 0 to about 4". The ceiling for RDU if we play all of our cards right is likely a little higher than this at about 6" but I doubt we get close to that at this juncture. The sweet spot east of the mountains in NC is probably going to be knocking on the door of Winter Storm Warning Criteria for the NWS RAH domain...
 
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Erm, something is either wrong with my data; or there is definitely a major change at h5 vs 18z.
 
The one major change on this run of the NAM thus far is the big vortex over the Lakes is slower... Apparently the ingestion of new RAOB data in and around the contiguous US had a pretty substantial and measurable impact on the NAM forecast inside 24 hours. The ridge over the Rockies all the way up into western Canada is definitely stronger this run as well...
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Webberweather53 said:
The one major change on this run of the NAM thus far is the big vortex over the Lakes is slower... Apparently the ingestion of new RAOB data in and around the contiguous US had a pretty substantial and measurable impact on the NAM forecast inside 24 hours. The ridge over the Rockies all the way up into western Canada is definitely stronger this run as well...
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The stronger ridge stands out like a sore thumb.... good sign I would think
 
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