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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

Just because I can, here's the Canadian Ensembles. Significant improvement for areas in the west and south with the ULL.
sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_ma.png
 
DopplerWx said:
GSP latest disco WOOF

We still cannot entirely rule out the
potential for isolated blizzard conditions to develop, mainly for
areas that see 3 consecutive hours of 35 mph or greater wind gusts
and visiblity of 1/4 mile or less.
Click to expand...
“Mainly” for areas that develop those conditions? Isn’t that just the criteria to be considered a blizzard?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think you’re in a great spot. Spartanburg to Charlotte imho is going to feast on the mesolow to the SW, the slowing warm front to your east, and the heavy, efficient banding pivoting over you
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I know that Corolla n the OBXZx might be a sweet spot for the beaches. I’m exactly 21.4 miles away from there in KECG. I’m hoping that some of that thump might make it westward to us.
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE SC LOWCOUNTRY,
IN GEORGIA, EFFINGHAM, BULLOCH, CANDLER, JENKINS, AND SCREVEN
COUNTIES FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY. EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.



KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO
HEAVY IMPACTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE.

- 2) EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISTORICALLY COLD
WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
 
WPC is reinforcing their strong language around the development of this storm in their Friday 1:35 update. It's a long read but worth the read if you are interested in their thought process.


Couple of highlights:

Some of this WAA could be intense as
reflected by strengthening 925-700mb fgen, well aligned into the
deep DGZ (>70% chance of at least 100mb of DGZ depth according to
the SREF). This will support not only expanding snowfall, but
intensifying snowfall such that by 00Z/Sunday at least moderate
snowfall rates should encompass nearly the entirety of the
Carolinas and into northeast GA and southern VA.

WPC probabilities for the event are quite robust for both the
Appalachians and eastern North Carolina, where they are above 50%
for 8+ inches, and 30-50% for 12+ inches. The greatest potential
for more than 12 inches appears to be eastern NC where the
deformation band may pivot, but a widespread 4-8" snowfall appears
likely from southern VA through northern SC, with impactful
accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA, Charlotte and
Raleigh, NC, Columbia, SC, and even into Atlanta, GA. Farther
northeast, WPC probabilities are 30-50% for 4+ inches across the
Cape and Islands.
 
My NWS point forecast holding on to about 2” but the gradient in the Charleston metro is gonna be crazy. Edisto Beach might not even get to 1” while Summerville likely to get 3”+ and northern Berkeley closer to 5. Ocean water temps might cut accumulations down closer to the beaches
 
RBR71 said:
Maybe slight improvement on WeatherNext2, held serve at the very least
View attachment 191914
Click to expand...
I think a lot of us would be happy to be guaranteed .25" of precip with these ratios. These SV maps are so crude though. I'd love to see more detail. Lots of difference between .25 and .49 in this setup. Can you post the snow map? That will give us a better idea who gets .4 with the 4" snow contour line.
 
packfan98 said:
I think a lot of us would be happy to be guaranteed .25" of precip with these ratios. These SV maps are so crude though. I'd love to see more detail. Lots of difference between .25 and .49 in this setup. Can you post the snow map? That will give us a better idea who gets .4 with the 4" snow contour line.
Click to expand...
Still hard to decipher details but here you go
1769799887541.png
 
n1accord93 said:
WPC is reinforcing their strong language around the development of this storm in their Friday 1:35 update. It's a long read but worth the read if you are interested in their thought process.


Couple of highlights:

Some of this WAA could be intense as
reflected by strengthening 925-700mb fgen, well aligned into the
deep DGZ (>70% chance of at least 100mb of DGZ depth according to
the SREF). This will support not only expanding snowfall, but
intensifying snowfall such that by 00Z/Sunday at least moderate
snowfall rates should encompass nearly the entirety of the
Carolinas and into northeast GA and southern VA.

WPC probabilities for the event are quite robust for both the
Appalachians and eastern North Carolina, where they are above 50%
for 8+ inches, and 30-50% for 12+ inches. The greatest potential
for more than 12 inches appears to be eastern NC where the
deformation band may pivot, but a widespread 4-8" snowfall appears
likely from southern VA through northern SC, with impactful
accumulations expected in areas like Richmond, VA, Charlotte and
Raleigh, NC, Columbia, SC, and even into Atlanta, GA. Farther
northeast, WPC probabilities are 30-50% for 4+ inches across the
Cape and Islands.
Click to expand...
This also caught my eye:
"This will produce extreme anomalies of more than -5 sigma with respect to
500mb heights according to NAEFS across the Southeast/Gulf Coast,
indicative of how rare and extreme this setup will be."

I believe that reduced down to math for dummies, this is essentially a "one-in-millions" pattern set up.
 
Sctvman said:
My NWS point forecast holding on to about 2” but the gradient in the Charleston metro is gonna be crazy. Edisto Beach might not even get to 1” while Summerville likely to get 3”+ and northern Berkeley closer to 5. Ocean water temps might cut accumulations down closer to the beaches
Click to expand...

Gulf Stream being much closer to you than it is to us up in Horry county doesn’t help but I still think yall will see a great storm for that area.
 
GaWx said:
Do you think this is a reasonable map for the ATL area? I may send this to my sis, who lives in NE ATL, and a friend who lives in Cobb.

This implies sis is near the 2” line. She had no idea that anything at all was even possible til I texted her late Tue night.
Click to expand...
It’s certainly reasonable. I think the boom/bust potential is much higher than usual given the setup. You may have one part of a county get 2-3 inches while one part of a county gets 1. It’s just going to depend on where banding sets up, etc…
 
GaWx said:
Do you think this is a reasonable map for the ATL area? I may send this to my sis, who lives in NE ATL, and a friend who lives in Cobb.

This implies sis is near the 2” line. She had no idea that anything at all was even possible til I texted her late Tue night.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty close, if not slightly underdone. I expect 3-5 at my location, NWS is saying 3.8.

Of course the further west you go, the fringier the forecast gets.
 
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