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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

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RAP is showing what I've been cautiously optimistic will be the case -- with a storm this strong, "dry slot" areas are still gonna pick up a few inches even with the two separate pieces of energy. 4.8 looks to be the LOWEST total across NC, and the footprint shows how that is the area that at certain hours is dry slotted but the rates are high enough when it's hitting that it still turns out v decently.
 
Current radar has a small blob of snow on the Bama/GA line near Gadsden. Whats that about? Im sure its just virga but interesting.
 
bud006 said:
Had multiple fellow A-List members reach out to me yesterday, which gave me a chance to inform them and urge them to pay attention and prepare. I talked to my ticket rep and told him the way the forecast was trending, I wasn’t planning on attending. Hate it, but they had no choice but to cancel it.
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Yet CheerExpo is putting on a Cheer Comp in Gwinnett tomorrow and Sunday and not cancelling?!?! Reached out to that org and they were like "Forecast" for this area been spotty so we are continuing with event. Then you are hamstring into feeling obligated to attend because Team isn't backing out and now looking at booking a nearby Hotel.... Stupidity for sure
 
malak05 said:
Yet CheerExpo is putting on a Cheer Comp in Gwinnett tomorrow and Sunday and not cancelling?!?! Reached out to that org and they were like "Forecast" for this area been spotty so we are continuing with event. Then you are hamstring into feeling obligated to attend because Team isn't backing out and now looking at booking a nearby Hotel.... Stupidity for sure
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What forecast are they even looking at? These snow ratios are literally similar to Snowmaggedon.
 
Makeitsnow said:
I don't understand is logic over the western upstate/ne ga unless he just hasn't put any thought into it at all. It doesn't match up with any modeling at all.
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His primary focus is Charlotte so you have to keep that in mind, however he normally bats a 1000 up and down the I-85 corridor
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
His primary focus is Charlotte so you have to keep that in mind, however he normally bats a 1000 up and down the I-85 corridor
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You mean he doesn’t get emotional over any model run? Could you imagine a MET who screams generational storm one run and the cries it’s all gone the next? The nerve I tell you!
 
NWG_WX14 said:
I don’t get his logic for central NC. Seems like he is really buying the 1-2 models showing a massive dryslot
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Keep in mind it’s not in his viewing area, either. I can plausibly see it happening with a massive dry slot like some modeling shows, although I don’t favor it. Of course, I’m biased!
 
NWG_WX14 said:
I don’t get his logic for central NC. Seems like he is really buying the 1-2 models showing a massive dryslot
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this thing has to transition from land to sea somewhere and unless the ULL traverses all the way to the Carolina coast before making the transition history tells us there will be a minimum somewhere
 
NCwx1992 said:
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RAP is showing what I've been cautiously optimistic will be the case -- with a storm this strong, "dry slot" areas are still gonna pick up a few inches even with the two separate pieces of energy. 4.8 looks to be the LOWEST total across NC, and the footprint shows how that is the area that at certain hours is dry slotted but the rates are high enough when it's hitting that it still turns out v decently.
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The boom potential is implicitly shown even in areas "dryslotted". What is an unexpected surprise is between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on what looks like an enhanced pocket, possibly deform band. Kuchera method paints a stripe of 12"+ in Eastern Berkeley and Charleston Counties! 8.6" Charleston would beat 1989 (8.0") for the all time record if that occurs!

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
His primary focus is Charlotte so you have to keep that in mind, however he normally bats a 1000 up and down the I-85 corridor
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Exactly i thought he always did well forecasting for the upstate which is why i'm surprised. I mean he shows a lot of focus on the carolina coast which is further away than ne ga/western upstate. It doesn't even match the footprint of what the models are putting down. I don't get it.

jeremyt said:
You mean he doesn’t get emotional over any model run? Could you imagine a MET who screams generational storm one run and the cries it’s all gone the next? The nerve I tell you!
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what on earth has that got to do with what we are talking about? This isn't about jumping back and forth between model runs, i don't understand his logic since if the western HALF of the upstate only gets 1 to 3, that would be rather incredible.
 
Stormsfury said:
The boom potential is implicitly shown even in areas, as in what was an unexpected surprise between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on what looks like an enhanced pocket, possibly deform band. Kuchera method paints a stripe of 12"+ in Eastern Berkeley and Charleston Counties! 8.6" Charleston would beat 1989 (8.0") for the all time record if that occurs!

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Is the rap model reliable or just meh?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Gary trolling View attachment 191852
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A guess: The AI model is taking what it "knows" from previous events. It sees the two systems and knows that there should be a transfer of energy. Hence, there should be a dry slot. The info it's receiving places the most likely spot as central NC ... which isn't that unusual. So, to AI, the solution is cut and dried -- literally.
 
Verbatim the models look like they are trying to setup a dry slot right along the NC coastline. While not totally off base and it does have some precedent, I don't know if I buy it completely yet. Soundings on GFS still look good, despite the reduced QPF. I am concerned, but we will all wait and see.
 
Imho, elevated warm fronts/warm advection like this is usually the ultimate trump card when it comes to winter storms around here.

Every model just plain sucks at forecasting it, whether that’s AI, traditional models, cams, etc. I’ve learned to always respect it, particularly when I see it in the very short range like this.

Seeing it this consistently across different models at the moment (even the globals) so close to the event makes me feel like there’s a shot for places around Fayetteville and Raleigh to bust higher on the snow totals depending on where the warm front sets up shop

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Here’s my first call. I based my map and predictions on literally what every meteorologist in the state has been putting out. I did personally go out on a limb with some of these totals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
UKMET is similar to the Euros and AI’s. Slightly better for the western folks with the ULL. That’s been solid all day. I don’t have access to the Kuchera map. Paging @RBR71
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I think this is an uptick for central NC from the 00z run, at least. 🤷‍♂️
 
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