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Pattern January Joke

jrips27 said:
Sucks we’re not going to take advantage of this. Was trending good but heading back the other way now
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Apparently we can’t get a cutoff down past the Ohio valley anymore. Even with the really strong western ridge. Just doesn’t happen anymore. Generational run we are on for regular cornflakes branded weather
 
Mitch West said:
Just stupid cold & dry. View attachment 182509
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That's not a really suppressive look to me. Imagine if we had an active STJ. But we don't. Thanks La Nina. I've heard too many in the SE start saying they prefer La Nina lately. This La Nina was tired of hearing that and decided to show us why they suck.
 
Does anyone have EPS panels for storm #1 #2? I know the Euro was dry but seeing if the ens follow
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
I believe the graphcast is the same thing or built off of the AI GFS, someone correct me if I’m wrong.


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That is not the case as far as I am aware. believe the AI GFS is similar to the AIFS in that it is a ML model run off of GFS initial condition. graphcast/weathernext is google's deal
 
Mitch West said:
Just stupid cold & dry. View attachment 182509
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That 12Z Euro 360 hour map has about as much chance of verifying closely as I have to win the lottery. Almost 200 hours earlier (at 168) it’s not even consistent with its own prior runs’ day 7!

I wouldn’t be upset if op runs were to go back to stopping at 240. Once past day 7 (and likely before), the ensemble means start having much higher credibility and even they sometimes struggle at just day 7.
 
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I like the Euro MJO progression into phase 7 MLK week and then phase 8 after that.


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accu35 said:
Does anyone have EPS panels for storm #1 #2? I know the Euro was dry but seeing if the ens follow
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I have the 12Z EPS panels for the combined 2 storms. This is another reason to take the major hit (3-4”) of storm #2 on the 12Z GFS for esp. N AL and N GA with a big grain as I can find only 3 members (6%) (7, 41, and 46) with widespread 2”+ S of the TN/GA border:
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NCHighCountryWX said:
Official Guidance from NWS GSP

KEY MESSAGE #1: CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP

THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY MID-WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE Z500
SPEED MAXXES DIP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP, ELONGATED TROUGH EASING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
COMPLEX, WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND A DISTINCT COASTAL FRONT SETTING UP
ALONG THE NC-SC COASTLINE. THE TROUGH WILL FIRST INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST, PRODUCING AN OPEN WAVE (OR PERHAPS, AS
IN SOME GEFS SOLUTIONS, A CLOSED LOW) ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ACTIVATION OF THE COASTAL
FRONT WON'T TAKE PLACE UNTIL LATER - WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY, AT WHICH POINT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
TAKE PLACE.

THE RESULT, UNFORTUNATELY, IS A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN FORECAST SCENARIO.
ON THE ONE HAND, THE FIRST LOW LOOKS AN AWFUL LOT LIKE A TYPICAL
CLIPPER LOW; INDEED, THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING TROUGH ESCAPING THE
NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE AND EXPANDING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS AND UPPER
PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF THE COASTAL FRONT PRESENTS A
UNIQUE COMPLICATING FACTOR: UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THE MOISTURE
NEEDED TO PRODUCE PRECIP OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS WOULD NEED TO COME
FROM THE ATLANTIC, BUT THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD FUNCTION ESSENTIALLY
AS A MOISTURE SINK...KEEPING MUCH OF THAT MOISTURE FROM MAKING IT
FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT US. SUCH A DRIER SOLUTION IS DEPICTED IN
THE OPERATIONAL GDPS, AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CMC-GEPS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHATEVER PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD BE TEMPERATURE-DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW - WITH LITTLE IF ANY
POTENTIAL FOR ICE BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
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They always play it safe so they don’t look bad. No different than watching local news. Forecast the same even in the spring and summer. Always safe
 
SD said:
Op euro wasn't overly bad through day 16, I would assume the eps members have a lot of action through their run. Likely to have some crazy cold members in the day 12-15 range too
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Yeah, I mean it’s better than what we have now with having to get something to dig super deep to get it cold enough / and in the right spot for precip

Cold TPV is going to want to work south down into central and eastern Canada. Biggest question is do we get renewed ridging along / off the west coast. If yes, we should have that conus wide bowl trough look with high pressure up top, with big north to south temperature gradient. If no, it’s mostly too warm

Tropical forcing / MJO would favor the renewed western ridging. EAMT (-) would favor us not seeing it
 
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