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Pattern January Joke

Engeo said:
Charlotte and upstate SC are never getting snow again. Not really worth tracking or getting worked up about anymore
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It does feel this way. If one thing isn’t the issue, it’s another. Years ago, the threats were plentiful and we hit on at least one, usually multiple, every year. I don’t really understand what’s changed.
 
NBAcentel said:
Not to be that guy but the forcing regime in early February supports EC troughing after a late Jan warmup…. Probably not done with missed opportunities View attachment 182529View attachment 182530
You can already see the jet extension showing up in response, and once again a western ridge View attachment 182531View attachment 182532
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No we're not done with cold weather. I do wonder how we introduce moisture into this pattern and it be any different that what we've had? @JHS finally got his 2016 repeat. Except this time it didn't stop when Dec rolled around. I can't remember a winter this dry in at least 15 years. Regardless of eastern troughing I just can't see how we shake this endless pattern of fast flow northern stream clipper type stuff that will not work
 
SD said:
Op euro wasn't overly bad through day 16, I would assume the eps members have a lot of action through their run. Likely to have some crazy cold members in the day 12-15 range too
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You should take it with a big grain
 
RSG said:
No we're not done with cold weather. I do wonder how we introduce moisture into this pattern and it be any different that what we've had? @JHS finally got his 2016 repeat. Except this time it didn't stop when Dec rolled around. I can't remember a winter this dry in at least 15 years. Regardless of eastern troughing I just can't see how we shake this endless pattern of fast flow northern stream clipper type stuff that will not work
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We have to go back to 1986 to find a winter like this. The spring and summer that year got real ugly too with hot and dry weather. We were the top news story some evenings that summer because of it and I'm expecting this summer to be worse than that one unless things change.
 
Some thoughts on Thursday:EURO MODEL.png

This setup looks great for snow in the mountains, BUT it does present the chance for at least some flakes in the Mid-Atlantic east of the Appalachian chain.

Pros:
- Strong vort max at 500mb
- Abundant diffluence aloft
- Favorable downsloping QG forcing

In normal terms all of these things are favorable for some snow to make it over the mountains.

The big con is the cold air isn't already in place, but that can be overcome with a stout upper level low like the one that will be present.

It's one of those setups that most wont see flakes outside of the mountains, but someone could easily see a surprise event depending on the specifics as we get closer.
 
JHS said:
We have to go back to 1986 to find a winter like this. The spring and summer that year got real ugly too with hot and dry weather. We were the top news story some evenings that summer because of it and I'm expecting this summer to be worse than that one unless things change.
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Snow would be nice, but just rain would be good too. Because this is my biggest fear.

Though it’s crazy what yesterday’s rain did for Lake Allatoona.

Just hope that wasn’t a freak rain storm. Cuz this drought’s gotta go! Do not want a long hot, dry summer without storms like 1986.
 
JHS said:
We have to go back to 1986 to find a winter like this. The spring and summer that year got real ugly too with hot and dry weather. We were the top news story some evenings that summer because of it and I'm expecting this summer to be worse than that one unless things change.
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What was the Enso that year? Were we going from a La Nina to El Nino? I'm hoping that saves us this year
 
accu35 said:
CMC has this look with the northern stream at this time frame. Clipper?
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Possibly. Of course, I'm hoping for something more. Preferably, the January version of 03/02/09 :D

As unlikely as it may be, that UKMET run wasn't too far from something crazy.
 
Regarding the first system. I'd keep an eye on the trend of potentially losing the ULL to a more zonal look. This could be both a good or a bad thing as long as the initial trough doesn't turn zonal. Noticeable on some medium ranged models as we get closer to the shorter range. Zonal look could maybe make it easier to dive into the initial trough in time but not certain if that'll happen.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Regarding the first system. I'd keep an eye on the trend of potentially losing the ULL to a more zonal look. This could be both a good or a bad thing as long as the initial trough doesn't turn zonal. Noticeable on some medium ranged models as we get closer to the shorter range. Zonal look could maybe make it easier to dive into the initial trough in time but not certain if that'll happen.
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RRFS run coming in, appears to kinda be suggesting this. NAM, GDPS, RGEM, and I believe UKMET although not 100% sure if UKMET was doing that or not tries to do this new look.
 
POWERSTROKE said:
Fescue looking good
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Its rye grass over bermuda. Yard stays green 101/2 months out of year. May into early June is rough as rye dies out and bermuda waits on sultry nights to appear.bermuda disappears mid sept and I throw out the rye. No fertilizer, pre emergent etc. Spend about 300 a year now, use to be cheaper / seed = $$.

My apologies. Id respond to this in banter, but dont know how
 
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