Pattern January Joke

[iGRXY]

I may be in the minority in verbiage here but personally I could care less what the pretty colors are showing anomalous wise or 500mb wise. I continue to see a nice sharp western ridge and at least a minor to moderate -NAO on most ensembles. I'll take my chances with that everyday of the week

 

[GaWx]

More +PNA and less -EPO seems January 2022 ish. We definitely had some negative EPO but I don’t remember impressive Arctic cold with that. Very cold, but never really did the subzero stuff

I assume you know that subzero was much more common during 1955-89 in Bristol, TN, than the periods prior and after:

For 1937-2025, these years had subzero: 1955, 1958-9, 1961-7, 1969-70, 1972, 1977-8, 1980-3, 1985-6, 1989, 1994, 1996, and 2014-5.

So, 1937-54 had no years with subzero! Then 1955-89 had 22 years or 2/3 of the years! Subsequently, 1990-2025 had only 4 (11%)! These are amazing multidecadal swings!


Looking at the ones since 1990:

1/1994 had three days (16th, 18th, 19th) with the last two over 1-2” of snowcover: neutral PNA/-EPO/neutral WPO/tail end of -AO that turned to +AO/+NAO

2/1996 had two days (4th, 5th) over 13-14” of snowcover: +PNA/+EPO but immediately followed -EPO/-WPO/tail end of -AO/+NAO but immediately followed -NAO

1/2014 had three days (7th, 29th, 30th) over a coating of snowcover for the 7th to 1-3” of snowcover for the 29th-30th: +PNA/-EPO/neutral WPO/-AO tail ends/neutral NAO for 7th and +NAO for 29th-30th

2/2015 had one day (20th) over 5” of snowcover: +PNA/-EPO/-WPO/+AO/+NAO

So, tendencies for subzero at Bristol since 1994 are a combo of +PNA, -EPO, neutral to -WPO, and snowcover, all intuitive.

But, the AO tendency was not in the middle of a -AO string as it was instead either tail end of -AO string or +AO. In addition, +NAO was favored and only one of the five periods was just after a -NAO, which isn’t intuitive to me.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How do we claw out of that? Source region eviscerated.
GEPS might be the best we got. Which doesn’t say a ton

 

[trackersacker]

How do we claw out of that? Source region eviscerated. View attachment 180815
GEPS might be the best we got. Which doesn’t say a ton

View attachment 180816

EPS was definitely the best of todays suite and it was pretty solid.

Also to note about the weeklies, those run on data from the previous day so I’d say the better trends on todays 12z suite will show up in tomorrows run

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z GFS, GEFS, Euro all agree on decent stretching of the SPV around 1/13-1/15 with the coldest core over eastern NA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[NBAcentel]

Weeklies are chillier vs last run mid Jan, warmer later in Jan then last run with a quick SnapBack of the jet. I’d be cautious of the 2nd half of the month change because it seems like we are actually trending to more jet influence earlier on, which could delay a retraction of the jet
Old
New
2nd half
Old
New

 

[CaryWx]

I'm curious about how transient (or not) this cold turns out to be. 72hrs and poof?

 

[Tarheel1]

How do we claw out of that? Source region eviscerated. View attachment 180815
GEPS might be the best we got. Which doesn’t say a ton

View attachment 180816

Prime climo! Sad 20 degrees about normal or more!

 

[NBAcentel]

Clearly headed for a more +EPO/+PNA/-NAO type of look here. The positives is a more eastward trough axis, less chances of SE ridging
The negatives - more chances for cold/dry, a more progressive pattern especially northern stream unless you go nuclear with the west Canada ridge, western Canada getting roasted

 

[GaWx]

Regardless of what the rest of Jan has in store, I’m outside enjoying another stellar day thanks to Canada!

 

[NBAcentel]

Maybe something can show up if we keep this look around, those big western Canada ridge spikes can sometimes do some dirty work

 

[NCSNOW]

Western canada ridging is always a Big W in my book. Ill take my chances with that over anything else. Trick is to get it to lock in, hang out for 10 -12 days preferably.

 

[SD]

Clearly headed for a more +EPO/+PNA/-NAO type of look here. The positives is a more eastward trough axis, less chances of SE ridging
The negatives - more chances for cold/dry, a more progressive pattern especially northern stream unless you go nuclear with the west Canada ridge, western Canada getting roastedView attachment 180824View attachment 180825

At minimum the bonus here would likely be a longer duration of a colder pattern since we have more room to retrograde

 

[NBAcentel]

At minimum the bonus here would likely be a longer duration of a colder pattern since we have more room to retrograde

Yeah that’s what makes me skeptical of the quick retraction on the weeklies, it doesn’t make sense how earlier in the run it’s more extended yet it retracted the jet faster, there’s no forcing mech for retracting the jet that quick other then some weaker -EAMT showing up

 

[NBAcentel]

Western canada ridging is always a Big W in my book. Ill take my chances with that over anything else. Trick is to get it to lock in, hang out for 10 -12 days preferably.

Yeah that western can ridge spike is a Manitoba mauler printer pattern in the past

 

[SD]

Yeah that’s what makes me skeptical of the quick retraction on the weeklies, it doesn’t make sense how earlier in the run it’s more extended yet it retracted the jet faster, there’s no forcing mech for retracting the jet that quick other then some weaker -EAMT showing up

I feel like the weeklies have a bias to retrograde too quick seems like we do this every winter.

Another thing center the western ridge near the Yukon, nwt, BC borders in Canada and it's going to big cold the SE

 

[Oconeexman]

 

[trackersacker]

Yeah that’s what makes me skeptical of the quick retraction on the weeklies, it doesn’t make sense how earlier in the run it’s more extended yet it retracted the jet faster, there’s no forcing mech for retracting the jet that quick other then some weaker -EAMT showing up

Yeah I don’t buy that quick of a retraction but hey who knows this winter

 

[NCSNOW]

Joe Knows! As Powerstroke has quoted him. Sit tight. She's a coming.

 

[NBAcentel]

Pretty classic +PNA there, almost textbook actually.

 

[trackersacker]

Pretty classic +PNA there, almost textbook actually. View attachment 180830View attachment 180831

I do miss the +PNA. If the EPO is even neutral with +PNA in best climo time of the year we can work with that .

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Joe Knows! As Powerstroke has quoted him. Sit tight. She's a coming.

View attachment 180829

I was going to post some things from JB, but every time I do, you get these same few on here that ALWAYS know more than JB. But they are always here telling the Pro Mets where they are wrong, etc... They really amaze me with their wealth of knowledge. lol

 

[NCSNOW]

In 1985, Greensboro was almost 75 degrees on New Years Day. Probably warmest NYD on record. Jan 1985 Gboro recorded snow on 5 seperate occasions. Mostly all trace or half inch events. With one at 4 inches.
Feb 1985 ended up below normal temp wise and they recorded one more trace of snow that month.
Dec-Feb was way below normal precip. Lot of similarities and no 2 winters are alike. You get that western canadian ridge just right and it will send the pv down. Of course highlight will be busted pipes instead of feet of snow.