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Pattern January Joke

packfan98 said:
I think this year the modeling may be off more than usual because there’s no strong signal from any of the telleconnections we use. Enso, mjo, and most of the rest are flat and not the main driver we’ve seen in previous years. I’m hoping a -NAO and +PNA can help. There’s been other hints in the pacific too that could benefit us. Unfortunately, it’s going to take a few weeks.
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Agreed, the models dove quick from glory to doom and gloom for those who don’t want heat waves in winter. It would be nice to know what happened to show the -NAO and ridging on the West Coast for days to an abrupt change to the opposite. Right or wrong w’ell get what we get!
 
packfan98 said:
I think this year the modeling may be off more than usual because there’s no strong signal from any of the telleconnections we use. Enso, mjo, and most of the rest are flat and not the main driver we’ve seen in previous years. I’m hoping a -NAO and +PNA can help. There’s been other hints in the pacific too that could benefit us. Unfortunately, it’s going to take a few weeks.
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MJO lock up is an issue also. It’s in the COD. Model guidance is everywhere.
 
Mitch West said:
Euro AI ensemble for this am shows one of the best runs it has had yet for the pattern upcoming. Nice evolution. The AI guidance continues to be more aggressive with this pattern. I think it's a pretty big under the radar battle right now. View attachment 180766
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Yeah, but horrible trend. Ridge trending off the coast and obviously some members now dropping a trough into the SW.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, but horrible trend. Ridge trending off the coast and obviously some members now dropping a trough into the SW.
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True but if the next three model runs flipped back do you get excited or have reserve? The 500 pattern has been drastically different over the past few runs based strictly off of duration from what I see.
 
Been a little bit of can kicking on the models but it always seems to take a little longer than we hoped to really shake up the pattern. A few days ago the EPS had -EPO on 9-10th......now it's 12-13th. But all the ensembles agree that at some point by mid-Jan we see EPO flip.

The red line is Jan 10th...

EPS-EPS.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Seems like another reason we are seeing less -EPO is because the western ridge axis is trending further southeast to more of a classic +PNA look View attachment 180781
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I could be wrong, but it looks like the GFS AI is correcting more toward some of the AI ensembles.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NBAcentel said:
Seems like another reason we are seeing less -EPO is because the western ridge axis is trending further southeast to more of a classic +PNA look View attachment 180781
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That’s exactly what’s occurred with the EPS from 0Z yesterday to 0Z today. For the SE US, especially deep SE, that trade-off is typically a net benefit for those who want to
minimize the chance for a long torchy period fueled by a dominant SER.
 
I think I'm going back to the old school weather watching from my childhood. Thermometer, wind direction, and cloud type and obs from Texas.

More accurate than whatever supercomputer algorithm is spitting out these kinds of results.

From this to that in 24 hours, lol.
1767286229292.png
1767286288995.png
 
Mitch West said:
MJO lock up is an issue also. It’s in the COD. Model guidance is everywhere.
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Based on the average of the 8 Jans over the last 50 years with 2/3+ of days inside the circle (oddly enough I decided to research this only after Joe Bastardi mentioned this in several of his posts) and though it doesn’t even come close to guaranteeing anything, I hope most days remain near/inside the circle.

In the SE US this is how Jan temps and wintry precip ended up:

1977: historic cold/RDU 2.1” plus multiple days of sleet and ZR/snow to S FL and Bahamas
1980: NN to slightly AN/RDU 2.2”
1981: BN to MBN/RDU 2.6”
1982: BN/original ATL 7” snowjam/RDU 6”
1994: BN
1996: NN to slightly BN/RDU 5.6”
2000: NN to slightly BN/RDU 25.8”/TWO major ATL icestorms
2003: BN/RDU 3.5”

RDU averaged 6” of snow, 240% of normal!

Here’s the avg, which is significantly colder than that for Jans with <20 days inside the circle:
IMG_6629.png
 
GaWx said:
Based on the average of the 8 Jans over the last 50 years with 2/3+ of days inside the circle (oddly enough I decided to research this only after Joe Bastardi mentioned this in several of his posts) and though it doesn’t even come close to guaranteeing anything, I hope most days remain near/inside the circle.

In the SE US this is how Jan temps and wintry precip ended up:

1977: historic cold/RDU 2.1” plus multiple days of sleet and ZR/snow to S FL and Bahamas
1980: NN to slightly AN/RDU 2.2”
1981: BN to MBN/RDU 2.6”
1982: BN/original ATL 7” snowjam/RDU 6”
1994: BN
1996: NN to slightly BN/RDU 5.6”
2000: NN to slightly BN/RDU 25.8”/TWO major ATL icestorms
2003: BN/RDU 3.5”

RDU averaged 6” of snow, 240% of normal!

Here’s the avg, which is significantly colder than that for Jans with <20 days inside the circle:
View attachment 180793
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It doesn't seem like any research or analogs that are showing blue in the east are working well this year. But there's still plenty of time. Thanks for doing the research.
 
Rain Cold said:
It doesn't seem like any research or analogs that are showing blue in the east are working well this year. But there's still plenty of time. Thanks for doing the research.
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I mean technically the EC was largely BN this Dec and a lot of analogs have been coming to fruition it’s just the lack of snow for us with it, Virginia sure did cash out thoughIMG_1586.png
 
NBAcentel said:
I mean technically the EC was largely BN this Dec and a lot of analogs have been coming to fruition it’s just the lack of snow for us with it, Virginia sure did cash out thoughView attachment 180802
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Technically. A lot of the analogs that have been rolled out looked a lot different than that image...more like GaWx's image above. That said, yeah some did hit. 2nd half of Jan needs to come in strong to get close to even your image.
 
Mitch West said:
I’d disagree. It’s been cold. It just didn’t snow. Same crap I’ve been hearing on social
Media post. It hit 15° at my house in December
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15° what one morning?? Cause that's exactly how many days it hit 15 here at my house in northern upstate. Then we've had a few scattered mornings here and there in the 20s. I wouldn't call all that a freeze to "Thaw" out from 🤣
 
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I think we need to remember that there are periods of time when the atmosphere is more chaotic than others. The interaction of shortwaves, phasing, etc., can result in substantial run to run changes, particularly in the medium and longer ranges. We're seeing an awful lot of that right now. It results in flatter ridges, sharper ridges, ridges nudged east, ridges nudged west, NAOs weakening, NAOs strengthening, EPOs going up, EPOs going down, Pac jets extending, Pac jets retracting, etc., depending on the run.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think we need to remember that there are periods of time when the atmosphere is more chaotic than others. The interaction of shortwaves, phasing, etc., can result in substantial run to run changes, particularly in the medium and longer ranges. We're seeing an awful lot of that right now. It results in flatter ridges, sharper ridges, ridges nudged east, ridges nudged west, NAOs weakening, NAOs strengthening, EPOs going up, EPOs going down, Pac jets extending, Pac jets retracting, etc., depending on the run.
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Doesn’t help when we have less data assimilation then normal Going into models nowadays. Makes a huge difference. They can only do so much with less observation points and balloons in the air to give observations
 
Rain Cold said:
I think we need to remember that there are periods of time when the atmosphere is more chaotic than others. The interaction of shortwaves, phasing, etc., can result in substantial run to run changes, particularly in the medium and longer ranges. We're seeing an awful lot of that right now. It results in flatter ridges, sharper ridges, ridges nudged east, ridges nudged west, NAOs weakening, NAOs strengthening, EPOs going up, EPOs going down, Pac jets extending, Pac jets retracting, etc., depending on the run.
Click to expand...
Agree ..... until this pattern change gets within the 7-day window, this windshield-wiper effect will continue. I am just amused at the wild solutions on some of these LR runs, and the run-to-run changes. It's laughable at best, and all of the global models have fallen victim to these wild swings at one point or another. Folks just need to sit back and let this play out.
 
NBAcentel said:
Doesn’t help when we have less data assimilation then normal Going into models nowadays. Makes a huge difference. They can only do so much with less observation points and balloons in the air to give observations
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High altitude passenger planes and military planes should all be equipped with sensors/monitors that relay real-time atmospheric data. That would go a long way to solve the missing data issue.
 
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