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Pattern January Joke

trackersacker said:
1/27/10 was one of the best storms of the 09/10 winter here in East Tennessee. Generally a 5-10” storm with a lot of sleet at one point. Got a heavy accumulation coated with sleet. I remember trying to sled on it. Made the snow like concrete.
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i have fond memories of that storm. it was on a weekend so my mom and i packed up from ilm to visit a family friend in winston salem. we didn't beat it- snow onset began somewhere around kernersville. we were on that stretch of i40 around there with the massive median headlights- it was so gorgeous to see heavy snow against it. i was a snow bum getting antsy seeing storms miss us to the north, mom had to take things into her own hands (we got redemption 2 weeks later)
Rain Cold said:
Anyway, the chance the Canadian is right at 240 hours is worse than me winning the $1.7B Powerball. And somebody already won that!
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i don't need to beat the dead horse that it won't happen but it's great to see proof of concept of the pattern. and if blocking slows down the pattern, it's not terribly far fetched
 
Setting a personal deadline of 12z runs on Saturday to see noticeable upticks on the EPS before I think to pull the trigger on my can kicking foot. Like Ross said, proof of concept. Give me a few more fun looking runs sprinkled in & a better snow mean by this weekend.

Get the pattern
Get the ensembles
Get the time frame
Set the hook
 
jackendrickwx said:
Setting a personal deadline of 12z runs on Saturday to see noticeable upticks on the EPS before I think to pull the trigger on my can kicking foot. Like Ross said, proof of concept. Give me a few more fun looking runs sprinkled in & a better snow mean by this weekend.

Get the pattern
Get the ensembles
Get the time frame
Set the hook
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I like that brother. Let’s get it
 
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At H5, 12z GEFS is more or less headed toward what the 0z EPS has around 1/8-1/9.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
What a handoff! lol One of the lows has to win out. And we all know the cutter low wins 999/1000..this week is going to test everyone’s patience. Saddle up, partner
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I could be wrong but I think that low over Indiana is NS low dropping down like a clipper and separate from the southern stream wave that winds up of off the coast.
 
Chazwin said:
I could be wrong but I think that low over Indiana is NS low dropping down like a clipper and separate from the southern stream wave that winds up of off the coast.
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I should have watched the run! Let me rephrase: the low west of the mountains or over the lakes wins out 999/1000..

You’re right though. This thing was diving out of the north with no ridging to contend with. We’d just need something like that to dig in and go negative. This is why I like Niñas. Our bread and butter when the southern stream isn’t playing ball. Lot of options on the table. Jimmy like IMG_7201.png
 
I hate to be the guy that breaks down the long range canadian but I’m going to anyway because it was a winner. Looked like a conveyor belt of troughs out of the north. One was dropping in on the last frame and that west coast ridge wasn’t budging and those higher heights in EPO territory were working hard to dislodge the cold IMG_7203.jpeg
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I hate to be the guy that breaks down the long range canadian but I’m going to anyway because it was a winner. Looked like a conveyor belt of troughs out of the north. One was dropping in on the last frame and that west coast ridge wasn’t budging and those higher heights in EPO territory were working hard to dislodge the cold View attachment 180351
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I have a feeling when we get closer we may actually have a “chance” at back to back storms. We will just have to see how it plays.
 
jrips27 said:
I swear the entire euro run was coming out much quicker at the end of last winter. Feels like it takes forever to get to hour 240 nowadays on WxBell
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It's not coming in any faster on the other sites either. But weatherbell needs updates. They keep bumping up the price but making absolutely no updates. Pivotal comes in faster than Weatherbell.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I hate to be the guy that breaks down the long range canadian but I’m going to anyway because it was a winner. Looked like a conveyor belt of troughs out of the north. One was dropping in on the last frame and that west coast ridge wasn’t budging and those higher heights in EPO territory were working hard to dislodge the cold View attachment 180351
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It is at least in the ballpark of other modeling and where things are hopefully headed. The angle of approach is good.

I still maintain that we won't see a sub-1000 mb low near Indianapolis and have much snow in the Carolinas. But it's not worth digging into other that to see if it generally fits with other guidance, and it does. So check mark.
 
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