Pattern January Joke

[jackendrickwx]

You disappointed me again this morning with my forecast you sent out... Flipping rain chance Friday night lol
Temp has been rising overnight, 43 when I went to bed. Currently 49, but the front is knocking on our door. Looks like we may play who can kick the can the furthest in January... #wintersuxanymore

Ha, well if it makes you feel any better, still some wiggle room to dry up Fri night if you’d rather that.



But if it’s snow you want, i’ll have to politely ask you to join the queue

I’d be surprised if you didn’t even get a light wintry chance in January, just based off climo+pattern as it stands

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Ha, well if it makes you feel any better, still some wiggle room to dry up Fri night if you’d rather that.

View attachment 180316

But if it’s snow you want, i’ll have to politely ask you to join the queue

I’d be surprised if you didn’t even get a light wintry chance in January, just based off climo+pattern as it stands

Yeah I was messing with ya. I agree; I will be very disappointed if I don't at least get a mixed bag of something in January. But we're fighting two battles, so far moisture and now it seems temps may not work out either? It's really unbelievable how hard it is to get winter precip anymore... It used to be no problem to get an Ice storm around here, but I haven't had a good Ice storm in a long time. It's just all screwed up anymore. I'm beginning to think we have a climate of Georgia here now.

 

[RBR71]

As long as models continue to show that -NAO no need to be concerned yet. If we get that stout of blocking surface features will catch up and winter will arrive. Patience

 

[SD]

Once the nao block retrogrades into the Davis strait region or even a little west that will probably be our best shot in this part of the pattern evolution. Before that the look is doable but it's threading the needle with a stroke of luck and that's hard to get fully behind

 

[BIG FROSTY]

As long as models continue to show that -NAO no need to be concerned yet. If we get that stout of blocking surface features will catch up and winter will arrive. Patience

I agree 100% but I would think that at some point soon, fantasy storms should start showing up often, and under D10. No?
My thinking is it's a dang bad pattern when you can't even get fantasy storms to show up on any of the 50 models we have now . lol

 

[GaWx]

Alaska bakes and somehow so do we. Just ridiculous

6Z GEFS 360: another -PNA









But hope is there from both the 0Z EPS’ +PNA that was posted last night as well as this, which shows that 90 day -PNA bias and E US bias map of GEFS:

 

[weatherfide]

At 144 hours, Pacific is hot garbage and the -NAO can't go it alone. I'm not expecting any BN temps around that time frame around Atlanta. EURO has central TX near 85! Similar pattern repeating like we just went through.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

 

[RBR71]

I agree 100% but I would think that at some point soon, fantasy storms should start showing up often, and under D10. No?
My thinking is it's a dang bad pattern when you can't even get fantasy storms to show up on any of the 50 models we have now . lol

Yeah I'd like to see some fantasy storms pop as well but I personally think we're still a couple days away from that. We're still a ways from locking in a west based -NAO, and in our neck of the woods, a west based -NAO can get it done. If NYD rolls up and nothing close showing LR, maybe time to worry but even then, it ain't over

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Not a bad look around 1/9, more of a west based -NAO with a slight +PNA and trough axis over the SE/mid Atlantic. Roughly 24% of members showing measurable snow around 1/9-1/10. We have a starting point, love to see a slow steady increase in members in the coming days.


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[tennessee storm]

That graphic screams extreme confusion from

If that timeframe don’t pan out either , let the game begin called kicking the can down the ole road …