• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

Not too shabby!!

1a9d49f4e0c50d80c03b7735ddf1b54a.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Catching up after the holiday; thanks to all that have posted the great model analysis over the holiday and weekend! It's been said, but again for me, I agree with the thought that it's harder to get excited until the pacific improves, and we get AK ridging with a +PNA. I think there's a reason the ensemble snow mean is pretty cruddy still. It's not the end all be all, but to me it sends a good pattern signal when there's significant bump in the mean for MBY. The retrograding east to west based -NAO is good and at least keeps us cool/cold/seasonal, but it's not what we need for a winter weather event IMO (and do we really have 50/50 lows modeled for a true -NAO or is it just greenland ridging?). The pattern seems to me to be somewhat of a warmer version of what we've had earlier in December; a -NAO with a AK vortex.

Hopefully the progression continues like EPS shows mid January as mentioned, and the jet doesn't retreat too quick.

1767031971343.png
 
Stevo24 said:
I have a feeling when we get closer we may actually have a “chance” at back to back storms. We will just have to see how it plays.
Click to expand...
Dating myself (January 77') but I remember watching WRAL out of Raleigh. Greg Fischel (IIRC) was showing the one low 'hitting' Raleigh right now, and another coming from Texas through the gulf. TWO BIG FAT L's: southern sliders. I don't know why recalling that has been in my memory bank forever. That sealed my weather nerd-dom. Indelible mark for sure. Here's to having it happening again.
 
KyloG said:
Impressive Euro keeps troughing in the east throughout

View attachment 180371
Click to expand...

It was a very nice Euro run indeed.

Ridge #1 pushes thru the E Pac trough and into W Canada here days 5-9. This works in conjunction with the solid Greenland block to force the E U.S. trough

Dec 29 Euro 1.gif


Then Ridge #2 pushes thru the E Pac trough and into W Canada and E AK here days 11-15, again working in conjunction with the Greenland block that is being maintained & reinforced - result this time being a broader, suppressed height field across the conus.

Having a combo of spiking western ridging episodes with Greenland blocking being maintained are key features to watch for increasing our odds here.

Dec 29 Euro 2.gif


The extending Pac Jet being key here of course to the wave breaking happening in the eastern Pacific, with ridge spikes out ahead

Dec 29 Euro Jet.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
January 18, 2018 vibe check?View attachment 180376
View attachment 180377
Click to expand...
That was a weird event here in NE TN.

It was supposed to be a cold anafrontal situation here with a 1-2 maybe 3” snow event forecasted.

But last minute it slowed down. This allowed it to warm ahead of the front and we started as rain and initially achieved very little accumulation.

Then because of the additional low that popped last minute we saw snow linger several hours past the forecasted timeframe, temperatures dropped and we still achieved 2-3” of snow a completely different way.
 
Call it kicking the can, but I just don’t think the risk around the day 10 timeframe is our storm. I like just beyond that timeframe. But who knows.

Our ridge out West dramatically improves potentially. I just think the day 10 risk is a Mid Atlantic Northeast storm. But it’s a tone setter also..

12z EPS

Btw, it took a diabolical amount of time for the EPS to fully run. Jeez.IMG_7821.png
 
Mitch West said:
Call it kicking the can, but I just don’t think the risk around the day 10 timeframe is our storm. I like just beyond that timeframe. But who knows.

Our ridge out West dramatically improves potentially. I just think the day 10 risk is a Mid Atlantic Northeast storm. But it’s a tone setter also..

12z EPS

Btw, it took a diabolical amount of time for the EPS to fully run. Jeez.View attachment 180387
Click to expand...
It probably doesn’t know what to do when something is happening in our favor so it just shuts down.
 


Brother ALEEE NAH. Feb 2021 looking boy. Get that diabolical crap outta here son.
 
We are most likely to get whacked in this type of pattern when we transition between a big -NAO to -EPO.

Mid-month looks fantastic pattern wise…

Here is the typical pattern for board wide southern us overrunning cases:
IMG_7068.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top