It’s amazing we posted essentially the same idea only seconds apart!
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
It’s amazing we posted essentially the same idea only seconds apart!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
NBAcentel
Member
That’s wild that you can see cold air damming on a long range smoothed mean like that
Just 2 weirdos haha
The weakening from Jan 5-12 matches up well with SPV weakening precursor patterns of North Pac Low / Greenland High / Urals Ridge
NBAcentel
Member
Think maybe the Aleutian trough showing up is disturbing the SPV ? Technically troughing in the sector around the Bering sea/Aleutian Islands is a thorn to the SPV
trackersacker
Member
Been thinking this myself. I back ya 100%
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Another example of guidance continuing the trend of colder runs as we get closer to the 1/12-1-18 period…just like we’ve been doing since the fall.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NBAcentel
Member
Absolute -EPO printer look there 
It tries to progress eastward to the americas. It’s already barely a MJO pulse/weak pulse if anything initially, but it’s faintly over the americas. perhaps another jet extension in late Jan/early Feb ? Thoughts ? @griteater
It tries to progress eastward to the americas. It’s already barely a MJO pulse/weak pulse if anything initially, but it’s faintly over the americas. perhaps another jet extension in late Jan/early Feb ? Thoughts ? @griteater
Your guess is as good as mine. I've thrown my hands up and pretty much given up trying to assess how the tropical forcing is affecting the pattern this winter. I'm going with the conclusion (right or wrong) that since we haven't been seeing the typical 30-60 day cycle with the MJO, that these faster moving tropical forcing waves aren't exerting themselves into the pattern very much. But overall, I haven't really seen anything that says hey, we can just go ahead and cancel late Jan into Feb.
NOAA's MJO Update today - they do make mention of possible W Pac flare up:
Prestige Worldwide
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The dominant force the next few weeks over the global tropics forcing wise will actually be this off-equatorial Rossby Wave that's moving across the Pacific, which will eventually be one of the primary triggers for our -EPO regime
Notice the -OLR anomalies moving westward on the Euro weekly hovmollers, this is usually related to westward moving off-equatorial Rossby Wave.
You can also tell this an Equatorial Rossby Wave here by the 2 areas of positive precipitation anomalies straddling both sides of the Equator. Equatorial Rossby Waves are "moisture" modes, so you usually have to look at moisture-related variables (like OLR or precipitation) to properly track them.
You can also spot the Equatorial Rossby Wave here with zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific. Note the westward propagation in the forecast.
Notice the -OLR anomalies moving westward on the Euro weekly hovmollers, this is usually related to westward moving off-equatorial Rossby Wave.
You can also tell this an Equatorial Rossby Wave here by the 2 areas of positive precipitation anomalies straddling both sides of the Equator. Equatorial Rossby Waves are "moisture" modes, so you usually have to look at moisture-related variables (like OLR or precipitation) to properly track them.
You can also spot the Equatorial Rossby Wave here with zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific. Note the westward propagation in the forecast.
iGRXY
Member
I still think our best chance at something wintry, especially board wide, is going to be as our -NAO retrogrades to the west and especially as the +PNA spikes poleward. Before then I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of wedge icy mess as a possibility before mid month. I'd lean towards overrunning or a Miller A as the best shot by mid month. Especially overrunning with the trough axis centered over the US/Canadian border and North Atlantic with an active southern jet quickly pumping. We are quickly getting the best of both worlds of a La Nina and El Nino. Active southern jet with true legit arctic air being dropped east as we get high latitude blocking
NBAcentel
Member
Pretty classic -NAO —> western NA ridge > -EPO retrogression here…
the last time we did that ? Last winter
