tennessee storm
Member
It’s a clipper out of northwest flow there
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Love to see it. Don't jump ship if its gone for a few runs. Let it breathe for a few days and let's see where we move toward
Tsappfrog20
Member
Not too shabby!!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Lots of sigmas with that block!
Source region looking good too.
Source region looking good too.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Just dig that trough a little more to the S/SW, hopefully the -NAO will help slow this potential system down.
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trackersacker
Member
I don’t hate this Euro run overall. It’s chilly and it’s active through the end of the run. EPS should be good.
NBAcentel
Member
a digging wave with a strong -NAO ? When was the last time
SnowNiner
Member
Catching up after the holiday; thanks to all that have posted the great model analysis over the holiday and weekend! It's been said, but again for me, I agree with the thought that it's harder to get excited until the pacific improves, and we get AK ridging with a +PNA. I think there's a reason the ensemble snow mean is pretty cruddy still. It's not the end all be all, but to me it sends a good pattern signal when there's significant bump in the mean for MBY. The retrograding east to west based -NAO is good and at least keeps us cool/cold/seasonal, but it's not what we need for a winter weather event IMO (and do we really have 50/50 lows modeled for a true -NAO or is it just greenland ridging?). The pattern seems to me to be somewhat of a warmer version of what we've had earlier in December; a -NAO with a AK vortex.
Hopefully the progression continues like EPS shows mid January as mentioned, and the jet doesn't retreat too quick.
Hopefully the progression continues like EPS shows mid January as mentioned, and the jet doesn't retreat too quick.
That hybrid clipper from January 2018.
Dating myself (January 77') but I remember watching WRAL out of Raleigh. Greg Fischel (IIRC) was showing the one low 'hitting' Raleigh right now, and another coming from Texas through the gulf. TWO BIG FAT L's: southern sliders. I don't know why recalling that has been in my memory bank forever. That sealed my weather nerd-dom. Indelible mark for sure. Here's to having it happening again.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
trackersacker
Member
EPS for next week could be worse but it’s not as special as I thought it would be.
Seems like there’s slight improvement at the end of the run tho.
Seems like there’s slight improvement at the end of the run tho.
It was a very nice Euro run indeed.
Ridge #1 pushes thru the E Pac trough and into W Canada here days 5-9. This works in conjunction with the solid Greenland block to force the E U.S. trough
Then Ridge #2 pushes thru the E Pac trough and into W Canada and E AK here days 11-15, again working in conjunction with the Greenland block that is being maintained & reinforced - result this time being a broader, suppressed height field across the conus.
Having a combo of spiking western ridging episodes with Greenland blocking being maintained are key features to watch for increasing our odds here.
The extending Pac Jet being key here of course to the wave breaking happening in the eastern Pacific, with ridge spikes out ahead
NBAcentel
Member
Not the biggest fan of the EPS trend though, feels like it’s slowly phasing the TPV/upper level low out the pattern in SE Canada, and the gates are closing for a trailer a bit with the trend out west 
January 18, 2018 vibe check?
NBAcentel
Member
GEFSAI looks amazing with the western ridging, now that’s a blockbuster pattern 
trackersacker
Member
That was a weird event here in NE TN.
It was supposed to be a cold anafrontal situation here with a 1-2 maybe 3” snow event forecasted.
But last minute it slowed down. This allowed it to warm ahead of the front and we started as rain and initially achieved very little accumulation.
Then because of the additional low that popped last minute we saw snow linger several hours past the forecasted timeframe, temperatures dropped and we still achieved 2-3” of snow a completely different way.
trackersacker
Member
Yeah you can’t hate that
NBAcentel
Member
EPS AI with a tall, monumental western N.A. ridge 
trackersacker
Member
Call it kicking the can, but I just don’t think the risk around the day 10 timeframe is our storm. I like just beyond that timeframe. But who knows.
Our ridge out West dramatically improves potentially. I just think the day 10 risk is a Mid Atlantic Northeast storm. But it’s a tone setter also..
12z EPS
Btw, it took a diabolical amount of time for the EPS to fully run. Jeez.
Our ridge out West dramatically improves potentially. I just think the day 10 risk is a Mid Atlantic Northeast storm. But it’s a tone setter also..
12z EPS
Btw, it took a diabolical amount of time for the EPS to fully run. Jeez.
It probably doesn’t know what to do when something is happening in our favor so it just shuts down.
SnowNiner
Member
Agreed! The Aleutian high is replaced with a nicely placed Aleutian low (
) , and I would think AK would get ridged soon thereafter. I would hope.
NBAcentel
Member
Some classic upper level looks showing up, polar jet injection with the western ridge and a active subtropical jet over the SE US 
SnowNiner
Member
If we can get that look to stay, as Kylo would say, buy a shovel...even we can't mess that up, etc.
NBAcentel
Member
I just tried chatGPT for the first time ever lol, and asked about analogs for the look showing up at the end of the EPS-AIFS, and this is what this computy printed 
CMC Weeklies for Jan 15-22
NBAcentel
Member
I noticed it was adding momentum to the pacific jet again towards the end of the run, with a more classic Aleutian low as well
Yeh man.. I’m telling yall. We are gonna get an Arctic outbreak during the second half of January at some point.
Brother ALEEE NAH. Feb 2021 looking boy. Get that diabolical crap outta here son.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We are most likely to get whacked in this type of pattern when we transition between a big -NAO to -EPO.
Mid-month looks fantastic pattern wise…
Here is the typical pattern for board wide southern us overrunning cases:
Mid-month looks fantastic pattern wise…
Here is the typical pattern for board wide southern us overrunning cases:
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
So I have been gone most of the day, ummm
January 8th…
January 8th…
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Go ahead and take it to the bank as I’ll be on a plane to O’Hare for a work trip.
AIGFS verification score at H5. Looks to be better than the GFS, generally
Euro Weekly SPV Zonal Wind Chart - forecast from Dec 20 vs Today
