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Pattern January Joke

GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies’ SPV at 10 mb is even weaker based on mean zonal 60N winds:

One week ago:
View attachment 180408


Today: note Jan 12th dip to only 22 vs it being way up at 47 a week ago
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Think maybe the Aleutian trough showing up is disturbing the SPV ? Technically troughing in the sector around the Bering sea/Aleutian Islands is a thorn to the SPV
 
NBAcentel said:
Absolute -EPO printer look there View attachment 180413
It tries to progress eastward to the americas. It’s already barely a MJO pulse/weak pulse if anything initially, but it’s faintly over the americas. perhaps another jet extension in late Jan/early Feb ? Thoughts ? @griteater
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Your guess is as good as mine. I've thrown my hands up and pretty much given up trying to assess how the tropical forcing is affecting the pattern this winter. I'm going with the conclusion (right or wrong) that since we haven't been seeing the typical 30-60 day cycle with the MJO, that these faster moving tropical forcing waves aren't exerting themselves into the pattern very much. But overall, I haven't really seen anything that says hey, we can just go ahead and cancel late Jan into Feb.


NOAA's MJO Update today - they do make mention of possible W Pac flare up:

Dec 29 MJO.png
 
Prestige Worldwide said:
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9c524f84e3040d4027233ed2c0af2db4.jpg

Higher skilled vs lower skilled lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The dominant force the next few weeks over the global tropics forcing wise will actually be this off-equatorial Rossby Wave that's moving across the Pacific, which will eventually be one of the primary triggers for our -EPO regime

Notice the -OLR anomalies moving westward on the Euro weekly hovmollers, this is usually related to westward moving off-equatorial Rossby Wave.
ps2png-worker-commands-658df795d8-zd2kj-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-_azi99_c.png



You can also tell this an Equatorial Rossby Wave here by the 2 areas of positive precipitation anomalies straddling both sides of the Equator. Equatorial Rossby Waves are "moisture" modes, so you usually have to look at moisture-related variables (like OLR or precipitation) to properly track them.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-pacwide-qpf_anom_7day_mm-8694400.png

erwave.png



You can also spot the Equatorial Rossby Wave here with zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific. Note the westward propagation in the forecast.

mLnf67IB.jpg
 
I still think our best chance at something wintry, especially board wide, is going to be as our -NAO retrogrades to the west and especially as the +PNA spikes poleward. Before then I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of wedge icy mess as a possibility before mid month. I'd lean towards overrunning or a Miller A as the best shot by mid month. Especially overrunning with the trough axis centered over the US/Canadian border and North Atlantic with an active southern jet quickly pumping. We are quickly getting the best of both worlds of a La Nina and El Nino. Active southern jet with true legit arctic air being dropped east as we get high latitude blocking
 

Really good read if you have the time. Some complicated meteorology terminology in there though if you are not into that stuff
 
iGRXY said:
I still think our best chance at something wintry, especially board wide, is going to be as our -NAO retrogrades to the west and especially as the +PNA spikes poleward. Before then I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of wedge icy mess as a possibility before mid month. I'd lean towards overrunning or a Miller A as the best shot by mid month. Especially overrunning with the trough axis centered over the US/Canadian border and North Atlantic with an active southern jet quickly pumping. We are quickly getting the best of both worlds of a La Nina and El Nino. Active southern jet with true legit arctic air being dropped east as we get high latitude blocking
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I agree with this a lot.

Im thinking our best chance is mid month
 
LukeBarrette said:

Really good read if you have the time. Some complicated meteorology terminology in there though if you are not into that stuff
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I just wish he'd use the right phrase...it's wash rinse repear. Not shampoo clean lather spread penetrate push repeat or whatever. Come on man.
 
trackersacker said:
Brother we’ve got to find another way besides jamming the low track right into the East Tennessee valley.

I mean how many times do we have to ride this train.
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There’s a 1030 HP locked in over New England feeding a stout CAD. This is a classic Miller B look with energy transferring to a coastal low.
 
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