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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Well, I appear to be getting my low in the gulf from at least some of these giggle water model runs, and now I just need some reinforcing cold air to come into play, and I get my sleet storm. It's still evolving, lots still possible, if improbable.
 
dsaur said:
Well, I appear to be getting my low in the gulf from at least some of these giggle water model runs, and now I just need some reinforcing cold air to come into play, and I get my sleet storm. It's still evolving, lots still possible, if improbable.
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All we need to do is readjust where that magical reappearing HP is and maybe the LP doesn't dive to Cuba.
 
GFS sun night/mon am
gfs_6hr_snow_acc_birmingham_22.png
 
Well 06z NAM says : "have some redundant moisture, while i let northerly winds in the upper atmosphere send my cutoff self down south on vactation."
 
Shawn said:
Well 06z NAM says : "have some redundant moisture, while i let northerly winds in the upper atmosphere send my cutoff self down south on vactation."
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I’m half asleep. Meaning? Lmao


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NC needs to pay attention. 12z GFS brings light precip into much of western 2/3's of NC. While temps "may" creep above freezing, the ground is frozen is most all of the state. Therefore, ZR is likely even with above freezing temps. The impact would be much more on auto and pedestrian traffic rather than the power grid (unless qpf increases quite a bit).
TW
 
GFS and the GEM both have some front end wintry precip on the 12z from E AL and points E and N. Again nothing major just something to look at if you like wintry precip.

Edit also mention RGEM and end of it's timeframe but show's same situation at surface, 850/500mb levels and precip

... Carry on
 
Just something that's gonna have to be tracked closely because if models bust on wrong side of timing or how precip holds together impact will raise significantly with temps
 
ForsythSnow said:
0.05" total is not an ice storm or even a freezing rain advisory by any means. If anything, that just a special weather statement.
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See Asheville NC New Year's Eve freezing fog event. Shut down entire interstate systems, wasn't even measurable amounts, wrecks everywhere and cars off the road everywhere
 
Looks like NW Alabama was NAM'd.

But really, I can't emphasize enough, I'd have a different perspective if it hadn't been so cold, but even light freezing precip can be a travel problem while it's still below freezing.
 
Tarheel1 said:
See Asheville NC New Year's Eve freezing fog event. Shut down entire interstate systems, wasn't even measurable amounts, wrecks everywhere and cars off the road everywhere
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Yep. Was a crazy event. The mountain on I40 connecting the county here I live in to Asheville was shut down. Was only drizzle or fog but created nightmare travel
 
Definitely not an ice storm. I'd say it may be a freezing rain advisory or winter weather advisory.
Tw
 
I would not be surprised if some areas in Al/Ga get more freezing rain than they expect. The only thing that makes me think this might not end up being a decent ice threat is the extremely low dew points. It will be interesting to see if the models trend wetter with tonights 00z runs.
 
Hrm, wasn't expecting much out of this but he NAM has a nice little area of freezing rain over the area. Will need to watch it a little more closely I guess.
 
Euro coming in wetter and faster for NC. Basically the western half of the state has precip by 3pm.
TW
 
Tarheelwx said:
Euro coming in wetter and faster for NC. Basically the western half of the state has precip by 3pm.
other board
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3 pm Sunday? That would be crazy early!
 
euro doesn't have anything in NC until 18z tue to 00z wed. its not cold enough verbatim and its very light. maybe a little bit of it could be zr over western NC
 
That's funny on the maps I saw I swore it was in my timeframe. Lol oops
 
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