Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[jackendrickwx]

morning forecast done. a couple little blue ridge ice events possible as you'd expect with such an active, wedgey pattern. pretty remarkable comeback we've made around here!

i see the euro had some fun overnight. you'd think we'll continue to see things like that pop up every now and then as we get into next week

 

[Chazwin]

Wake up. It's time to rage.View attachment 177457

We’ve almost got the hockey stick

 

[Chazwin]

I haven’t looked in detail but apparently the GEFS made some improvements overnight. The RMM MJO progs now clearly go into phase 8 and into the COD where it starts a slow loop. The AO and NAO charts haven’t updated yet

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I haven’t looked in detail but apparently the GEFS made some improvements overnight. The RMM MJO progs now clearly go into phase 8 and into the COD where it starts a slow loop. The AO and NAO charts haven’t updated yet

This morning’s CFS AO forecast


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[C-Money]

Euro just spat out a monster CAD winter storm just past day 10 lol. It ejects the SW US cutoff low on time View attachment 177450View attachment 177449View attachment 177448View attachment 177447

10 days out, but still...

 

[Rain Cold]

It is going to be lit up in here when we start seeing a bunch of fantasy storms in a few days. Get sleep now.

 

[weather bubba]

Somebody needs to wake up @Mitch and @Rain Cold/ They are going to love this. Too bad it's 10 days out. Just goes to show you what a good pattern we are heading into. You got to love snow in December.

It is the Euro rather than the GFS that is showing this ten-day threat now. The GFS had a similar storm during that time frame a couple of days ago. I know any storm shown on a model ten days out should be taken with a pound of salt but the fact that the Euro is showing something now has piqued my curiosity. December 2025 looks like a month where there will be a lot of lost sleep for many of us watching model runs knowing that so many of the parameters are in place for the Southeast to get some winter weather.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The ensembles are showing a warm-up mid-month. It'll be interesting over the next week to see if and when they flip to cold in the east, as has been the practice of late.

 

[Rain Cold]

The ensembles are showing a warm-up mid-month. It'll be interesting over the next week to see if and when they flip to cold in the east, as has been the practice of late.

This doesn't look all that warm. Now, if you're talking about the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad GFS ensembles, you have a point.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I do like how the EPS has a Baja low signal, these can be a pain sometimes counting on this feature dislodging or not, but the Euro showed us how it can produce. Cold shots do look repetitive during the period, so we’ll see how this evolves.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

Mitch had a tweet hit 2.7M yesterday. If you're on X, please like it and repost...see if we can get him to 3M. I got one to 170K one time or something and thought that was good lol

 

[Snowfan]

Mitch had a tweet hit 2.7M yesterday. If you're on X, please like it and repost...see if we can get him to 3M. I got one to 170K one time or something and thought that was good lol

I think a blizzard X post will get over 10M lol.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I haven’t looked in detail but apparently the GEFS made some improvements overnight. The RMM MJO progs now clearly go into phase 8 and into the COD where it starts a slow loop. The AO and NAO charts haven’t updated yet

Yep GEFS looks better for the MJO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DopplerWx]

What was the MJO for our Christmas storm back in 2010? I feel like that December pattern was loaded and we knew we had a shot early on in Dec to cash in.

 

[GaWx]

What was the MJO for our Christmas storm back in 2010? I feel like that December pattern was loaded and we knew we had a shot early on in Dec to cash in.

Weak 5:

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Euro MJO wandering around in P8 after 12/3


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[weather bubba]

I thought this explanation of the MJO and how its phases influence our winter weather is a good beginner's guide for people like me who aren't as well versed as many of the meteorologists and the other knowledgeable weather watchers who post here.

 

[Ross]

mjo is witchcraft that i refuse to learn or care about

 

[GaWx]

Yep GEFS looks better for the MJO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Euro MJO wandering around in P8 after 12/3


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

These 11 day long phase 8s of today’s 2 week EPS/GEFS would be tied for longest winter ph 8 since 2/7-17/2010!

 

[jackendrickwx]

These 11 day long phase 8s of today’s 2 week EPS/GEFS would be tied for longest winter ph 8 since 2/7-17/2010!

IF plots like these verify it’s gonna be fun times around here soon as far as model watching. My only concern is we aren’t into the depths of climo yet, but we are already seeing looks that could work for CAD regions, they are just ill timed or not quite set up right. Get the ingredients first before you can bake!

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

May be the best fantasy run of the winter

 

[weather bubba]

May be the best fantasy run of the winter View attachment 177474View attachment 177475

My stepdaughter who loves winter weather will love this! She was born on December 10th 1989 right after an ice storm which hit Eastern North Carolina on that day.

 

[C-Money]

May be the best fantasy run of the winter View attachment 177474View attachment 177475

Two Euro runs in a row with the storm, and this run even better than the last one.

 

[wow]

My stepdaughter who loves winter weather will love this! She was born on December 10th 1989 during an ice storm which hit Eastern North Carolina on that day.

My little brother was born on the 9th of that year in the western part of the state. Had the ice here as well. That was a very cold December. Xmas morning was frigid.

 

[Webberweather53]

My little brother was born on the 9th of that year in the western part of the state. Had the ice here as well. That was a very cold December. Xmas morning was frigid.

I did get around to analyzing that winter storm a year or two ago. What a fun event

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

WPC Ice accretion >.1” guidance. First image is Sunday. Second image is Tuesday

Use this link for the ice probabilities

WPC Probabilistic Winter Precipitation Guidance

 

[Mitch West]

We about to start loading up the timeframe to watch. ICE UP SON.

 

[Chazwin]

May be the best fantasy run of the winter View attachment 177474View attachment 177475

A 1026 high getting that done. Goes to show you what some snow pack up north can do

 

[Ollie Williams]

We about to start loading up the timeframe to watch. ICE UP SON.


View attachment 177480

Ice on the Canadian? I’m shocked

You know, I can’t think of a time where an ice event didn’t follow the climatology I-85 line unless there was some onset accumulating snow — at least since I started following the weather in 2016. Being in Raleigh, I look at that and say skip

 

[Mitch West]

Ice on the Canadian? I’m shocked

You know, I can’t think of a time where an ice event didn’t follow the climatology I-85 line unless there was some onset accumulating snow — at least since I started following the weather in 2016. Being in Raleigh, I look at that and say skip

Yeh man I was mainly meaning timeframes in general, not necessarily that timeframe.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yeh man I was mainly meaning timeframes in general, not necessarily that timeframe.

Then in that case, let’s roll with the good vibes!

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

We about to start loading up the timeframe to watch. ICE UP SON.


View attachment 177480

Later on in the run, it tried again on 12/8


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

This doesn't look all that warm. Now, if you're talking about the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad GFS ensembles, you have a point.

View attachment 177466

Oh, I totally agree. No torch in sight, but a warm-up nevertheless.

Again, I think it corrects to colder as the long-range becomes mid-range guidance as has been the case lately.

 

[NBAcentel]

EC AI getting close to another CAD event next week

 

[NBAcentel]

EC AI getting close to another CAD event next week View attachment 177482View attachment 177483

This one might be worth paying attention to for any colder trends, the cold air present in the NE when this system is nearby is far more impressive then the upcoming one with single digit/below 0 temps and below 0 dews in the interior NE, and there’s also gonna be fresh snowpack in place. If any changes happen with the trough associated for the cold feed slowing/amping, then this could
Get interesting fast

 

[Oconeexman]

Iowa

 

[NBAcentel]

For example here’s the airmass associated with the CAD setup Tues, and the airmass for one one late next week. Just something to note

 

[Mitch West]

12z EPS continues to look great moving deeper into December.

 

[Rain Cold]

12z EPS continues to look great moving deeper into December.
View attachment 177490View attachment 177491

Bridge the block north of AK with the ridge off of OR and oh boy!

 

[Mitch West]

12z EPS continues to look great moving deeper into December.
View attachment 177490View attachment 177491

CMC Ens supports also, but other ensemble guidance still figuring it out a bit.