Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[NBAcentel]

 

[Mitch West]

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Yeh the long range on the AI & EPS are just cold reload after cold reload.

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

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Yeah noticed that the EC AIFS ens is further SE with the snowfall swath compared the Euro EPS. Will be interesting to see how this system trends.


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[Mitch West]

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I've noticed something is off with the AIFS ens guidance over the last several weeks. It's glitchy.

 

[LukeBarrette]

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Includes ice and sleet as snow I believe

 

[jackendrickwx]

I've noticed something is off with the AIFS ens guidance over the last several weeks. It's glitchy.

It’s been off for months, not sure what the deal is. It had members dropping snow in the Atlantic while we were tracking a hurricane

 

[TheBetterDoge]

New weeklies hint at another weakness in the SPV around mid to late December, roughly around the same time period, the MJO finally reaches phase 8. The key here is that -NAO events have a high correlation MJO phases 7/8/1, which when coupled with another SPV weakness, could mean we see a high latitude blocking event heading into January. I also think this could reinforce the -EPO but I'm less certain about that. Let me know what y'all think about it.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z EPS has most of the SE below normal the next 15 days.


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[Arcc]

12z EPS has most of the SE below normal the next 15 days.


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I swear I was hearing nothing but torch...I almost put up my coats.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

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New weeklies hint at another weakness in the SPV around mid to late December, roughly around the same time period, the MJO finally reaches phase 8. The key here is that -NAO events have a high correlation MJO phases 7/8/1, which when coupled with another SPV weakness, could mean we see a high latitude blocking event heading into January. I also think this could reinforce the -EPO but I'm less certain about that. Let me know what y'all think about it.

With the SPV staying weak during the forecast period, I’m fairly confident the polar vortex will be disrupted and continue to bring batches of cold air south. The favorable phases of the MJO will also help bring the colder pattern we need. Mid December through early January (at least) continues to be the time period we need to watch closely for winter weather. Those are my opinions FWIW.


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[CNCsnwfan1210]

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New weeklies hint at another weakness in the SPV around mid to late December, roughly around the same time period, the MJO finally reaches phase 8. The key here is that -NAO events have a high correlation MJO phases 7/8/1, which when coupled with another SPV weakness, could mean we see a high latitude blocking event heading into January. I also think this could reinforce the -EPO but I'm less certain about that. Let me know what y'all think about it.

For those that follow the JMA, this model enters phase 8 around 12/3, probably too quick compared to the EPS.


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[Mitch West]

Must got the turkeys working the shift today because ain't no way I am buying this.

 

[TriplePhaser]

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So we will be phase 8 around this time here…
Should we expect this trough on the WC to shift east over time?

Don't worry about that. Some models are overreacting to the expected early Dec. jet retraction. This is most likely gonna correct east since for one the pacific jet stream is equator-shifted not poleward-shifted. Plus the following jet extension should further support hieght rises out West as we move forward from there.

 

[Rain Cold]

Must got the turkeys working the shift today because ain't no way I am buying this.


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There seems to always be a push toward climo with the NWS out at range. I get it, the models are usually not reliable 10+ days out. So some kind of a weighting toward climo seems like a reasonable way to forecast. I'm just guessing that's what's going on here.

If that's true, then we'll never get a tru representation of what they actually think. Instead, we'll get a blend of what they think with a heavier weighting toward climo the farther out in time we go.

It's why almost every professional outlet that comes out with a winter forecast seems to skew heavily toward ENSO. I guess that's ok. But it seems like the easy way out to me.

And I don’t mean this as a criticism of the NWS. They have a much bigger responsibility than we do in here.

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Must got the turkeys working the shift today because ain't no way I am buying this.


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I don't like seeing Alaska below normal.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.


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[Chazwin]

This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.


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I especially like seeing that deep snow pack building over SE Canada especially with how we keep seeing the TPV setting up over the same area

 

[CaryWx]

This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.


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This will really augment the weak HPs later on that get any blocking up there still pump the freezer south

 

[Chazwin]

This will really augment the weak HPs later on that get any blocking up there still pump the freezer south

Exactly. This is how you see winter storms with weaker HPs. A 1030 high in right spot to pump that cold air down over snow cover will get the job done.