NBAcentel
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeh the long range on the AI & EPS are just cold reload after cold reload.
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2021
- Messages
- 4,070
- Reaction score
- 12,841
- Location
- Lebanon Township, Durham County NC
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah noticed that the EC AIFS ens is further SE with the snowfall swath compared the Euro EPS. Will be interesting to see how this system trends.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I've noticed something is off with the AIFS ens guidance over the last several weeks. It's glitchy.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Includes ice and sleet as snow I believe
It’s been off for months, not sure what the deal is. It had members dropping snow in the Atlantic while we were tracking a hurricane
TheBetterDoge
Member
New weeklies hint at another weakness in the SPV around mid to late December, roughly around the same time period, the MJO finally reaches phase 8. The key here is that -NAO events have a high correlation MJO phases 7/8/1, which when coupled with another SPV weakness, could mean we see a high latitude blocking event heading into January. I also think this could reinforce the -EPO but I'm less certain about that. Let me know what y'all think about it.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z EPS has most of the SE below normal the next 15 days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
12z EPS has most of the SE below normal the next 15 days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I swear I was hearing nothing but torch...I almost put up my coats.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
With the SPV staying weak during the forecast period, I’m fairly confident the polar vortex will be disrupted and continue to bring batches of cold air south. The favorable phases of the MJO will also help bring the colder pattern we need. Mid December through early January (at least) continues to be the time period we need to watch closely for winter weather. Those are my opinions FWIW.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
For those that follow the JMA, this model enters phase 8 around 12/3, probably too quick compared to the EPS.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Must got the turkeys working the shift today because ain't no way I am buying this.
TriplePhaser
Member
Don't worry about that. Some models are overreacting to the expected early Dec. jet retraction. This is most likely gonna correct east since for one the pacific jet stream is equator-shifted not poleward-shifted. Plus the following jet extension should further support hieght rises out West as we move forward from there.
There seems to always be a push toward climo with the NWS out at range. I get it, the models are usually not reliable 10+ days out. So some kind of a weighting toward climo seems like a reasonable way to forecast. I'm just guessing that's what's going on here.
If that's true, then we'll never get a tru representation of what they actually think. Instead, we'll get a blend of what they think with a heavier weighting toward climo the farther out in time we go.
It's why almost every professional outlet that comes out with a winter forecast seems to skew heavily toward ENSO. I guess that's ok. But it seems like the easy way out to me.
And I don’t mean this as a criticism of the NWS. They have a much bigger responsibility than we do in here.
I don't like seeing Alaska below normal.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I especially like seeing that deep snow pack building over SE Canada especially with how we keep seeing the TPV setting up over the same area
This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This will really augment the weak HPs later on that get any blocking up there still pump the freezer south
This is what we need to see, building snowpack in Canada for these HP’s to work with.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Exactly. This is how you see winter storms with weaker HPs. A 1030 high in right spot to pump that cold air down over snow cover will get the job done.
TriplePhaser
Member
I remember every Thanksgiving weekend they have the Graveyard shift doing the maps.
TriplePhaser
Member
No clue what they're basing that on. We have ridging around the Bering Sea. At worse far east Alaska might be below. Otherwise the rest should be above me thinks.
Been a long time since the last cold rain, Tuesday is going to be wonderfully ugly
Brent
Member
Yeah we're getting an Arctic front Saturday morning and well... It's gonna be a shock
Still a weak wave Monday evening when it could be frozen
Still a weak wave Monday evening when it could be frozen
Might just squeeze in a brief period of Freezing Rain and Sleet early Tuesday, per RNK...
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Freezing rain, sleet and rain likely after midnight. Little or no sleet accumulation. Cold with lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
TUESDAY
Rain and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. Freezing rain, sleet and rain likely after midnight. Little or no sleet accumulation. Cold with lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
TUESDAY
Rain and freezing rain likely in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Southern Track
Member
Any concerns on this?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Euro going into phase 8 in about 5 days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Euro brings the freezer to the SE. Brings the PV in. Ensembles generally agree. Generally below average from 12/2 on. We'll see.
GOOOOD LAWWD
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
There it is, and just several days ago it was entering phase 8 around 12/13, now it’s almost 10 days quicker.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
This is the way! I’d imagine that it will correct into phase one as well. I was hoping that the loop would occur in phase 8 (if there was going to actually be a loop).
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Have we ever spent 20+ days in phase 8 during winter? Curious to know what the record is. Anyway, if we spend the entire month of December in phase 8 and don't get a southern winter storm, I'll be very surprised. Somebody down south will get snow, if this comes to fruition. Maybe another gulf coast storm or a good ole fashioned southern slider. Stay tuned....
Not since records began in 1974 has there been a phase 8 anywhere even near as long as yesterday’s ext-EPS phase 8 of 26 days (12/3-28)! The record longest phase 8 is 18 days (12/19/1975-1/5/1976) followed by 13 days (1/19-31/1975). So, although I’m hoping yesterday’s ext-EPS as well as today’s very consistent 2 week EPS have a clue, I’m taking this 26 day long phase 8 with a gigantic grain for now for obvious reasons including disagreement with today’s GEFS. And, of course, a record breaking long phase 8 doesn’t itself even nearly guarantee a cold dominated SE. But it would certainly be something I’d love to see!
In summary, mixed results today: fantastic EPS and not so good GEFS. Hoping with the aid of the current major SSW that the EPS will end up the winner for today’s runs!
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The big difference compared to several days ago why the models push this into phase 8 more quickly is because this secondary Kelvin Wave that orbits into the Western Hemisphere mid-late month is no longer in the forecast
Latest Euro weeklies
Weeklies from 4 days ago
Latest Euro weeklies
Weeklies from 4 days ago
Yes. Unlike today’s EPS consistent very long phase 8, I don’t at all like today’s GEFS change for obvious reasons with it never even getting into phase 8 through the entire 2 weeks!
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Correct me if I’m wrong Eric, but was there a little bit of a Pacific jet extension on the 00z EPS?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Whereas yesterday had good news for SE cold lovers on both the GEFS and EPS, today there are huge disagreements with the highly favorable EPS and the unfavorable GEFS. As said above, the GEFS MJO went from yesterday’s fantastically long phase 8 to today’s no phase 8 through the entire two weeks. Consistent with that, the GEFS went from yesterday’s improved AO/NAO (vs 2 days ago) to today’s significantly worse AO/NAO that looks similar to 2 days ago:
Today’s GEFS AO: back to yuck
Today’s GEFS NAO: back to yuck
Today’s GEFS AO: back to yuck
Today’s GEFS NAO: back to yuck
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Whether or not we get a Pacific Jet extension then depends a lot on how the downstream pattern evolves from the Scandinavian block that goes up in week 2. Usually, there's a week-10 days ish lag between Scandinavian blocking and cold surges in China/+EAMT