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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Webberweather53 said:
I know @griteater talked about this a while back, but this is a classic wave-2 (PV split) look on the ensembles later in week 2 with a pair of ridges over Scandinavia & the Bering Sea.

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CFS AO forecast looks promising, hopefully this blocking episode will boost the AO and NAO into the negative phases.


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Willing to bet that icon run was about to be a CAD winter storm and colder then last run. The trough associated with the TPV was further south, with a stronger high pressure, and a weaker, slower wave. This gives more time to establish a wedge as well. Notice how were are loading up the NE US with colder temps in the low levels. That translates to a stronger wedge as the high moves east IMG_0078.gifIMG_0079.gifIMG_0080.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
Willing to bet that icon run was about to be a CAD winter storm and colder then last run. The trough associated with the TPV was further south, with a stronger high pressure, and a weaker, slower wave. This gives more time to establish a wedge as well. Notice how were are loading up the NE US with colder temps in the low levels. That translates to a stronger wedge as the high moves east View attachment 177298View attachment 177299View attachment 177300
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U and I saw the same thing, really good run there. GFS will be interesting to see because it doesn’t look similar in the slightest to this
 
NBAcentel said:
Willing to bet that icon run was about to be a CAD winter storm and colder then last run. The trough associated with the TPV was further south, with a stronger high pressure, and a weaker, slower wave. This gives more time to establish a wedge as well. Notice how were are loading up the NE US with colder temps in the low levels. That translates to a stronger wedge as the high moves east
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Got hooked in on a couple of those looks last winter before crapping out. Avoid the phase, artic boundary pushes south, overrunning moisture under a sprawling HP. One of these days...
 
I didn’t see a post about today’s Euro Weeklies, but today’s run was the most bullish (i.e., colder changes vs prior run) overall in a long time in the SE.I’m not saying they’re cold, but they are colder than they were/not as mild or not mild overall. I don’t have time to post details right now, but y’all check it out!

Edit: Every one of the 5 weeks is colder and/or less mild in both the NE and SE US vs yesterday’s run including one dramatically colder week.
 
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NBAcentel said:
GFS is heading the right direction with the wave seperation but not the TPV trough, we need that thing to be sunken in the NE US to deliver a good cold feed View attachment 177302
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Gfs isn’t even close to the euro ai, euro, or icon so it can be 100% tossed. My two cents. Let’s not forget the gfs is absolutely for entertainment purposes only in the medium range these days.
 
rburrel2 said:
Gfs isn’t even close to the euro ai, euro, or icon so it can be 100% tossed. My two cents. Let’s not forget the gfs is absolutely for entertainment purposes only in the medium range these days.
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I always get frustrated looking at the ups and downs of the GFS only to remember the way it handled the early November event. I feel like it used to be better at med to long range but has certainly gone downhill over the past few years.
 
rburrel2 said:
Gfs isn’t even close to the euro ai, euro, or icon so it can be 100% tossed. My two cents. Let’s not forget the gfs is absolutely for entertainment purposes only in the medium range these days.
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It has been especially bad this year. But what an eye candy run the 6z was!
 
rburrel2 said:
Gfs isn’t even close to the euro ai, euro, or icon so it can be 100% tossed. My two cents. Let’s not forget the gfs is absolutely for entertainment purposes only in the medium range these days.
Click to expand...
The University of Miami recently studied the forecast accuracy of the major weather models in use. The Google AI model, the new kid on the block, came in first. The GFS was in the basement. That says enough about the GFS even though it can be entertaining at times as you mentioned.
 
trackersacker said:
The 18z Euro has a textbook track for the storm next week for just about all of us, and there’s practically no substantial cold air around. As Mitch would say “what an idiot” View attachment 177310
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Hard to really complain man. This was supposed to be a torch timeframe. We working with house money.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
4032bbc049e5dfea1b5c0aefabcbfce5.jpg

Euro EPS ext 12/2-1/1. To have the big cold pool in eastern NA is nice to have in the tool bag.


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Look at how much colder H5 on the Euro Weeklies is compared to yesterday’s: that’s a big change for a 30 day period!

Yesterday:
IMG_5666.png

Today (what you posted):
IMG_5668.png
 
GaWx said:
Look at how much colder H5 on the Euro Weeklies is compared to yesterday’s: that’s a big change for a 30 day period!

Yesterday:
View attachment 177313

Today (what you posted):
View attachment 177314
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Looks much better, like the blocking over top and the biggest cold pool on the globe is over eastern NA. I don’t have many complaints about that look.


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