Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Webberweather53]

Despite all the back-and-forth on the models on the pattern, MJO, the stratosphere, etc. this is what the MJO + ER + low frequency analog had nearly a month ago for early December.




This is the latest forecast, which is largely unchanged over N America.

 

[GaWx]

With the unfavorable changes in the MJO and AO/NAO, today’s 0Z GEFS is not surprisingly significantly warmer than yesterday’s run for the 2nd week in Dec. However, today’s 0Z EPS, which maintained its very long phase 8, is much colder than yesterday as well as the GEFS

Yesterday’s 0Z EPS for 12/5-11:



Today’s 0Z EPS for 12/5-11: it’s pretty rare for a 7 day period of the EPS to have that much of a change within just 24 hours:


As a result, the aggregate of today’s Euro Weeklies 12/1-7 and 12/8-14 2m temp anomaly maps will very likely be notably colder than yesterday’s.

 

[trackersacker]

Despite all the back-and-forth on the models on the pattern, MJO, the stratosphere, etc. this is what the MJO + ER + low frequency analog had nearly a month ago for early December.

View attachment 177403


This is the latest forecast, which is largely unchanged over N America.
View attachment 177404

And if you keep it rolling the trough just stays over the East through at least mid January

 

[C-Money]

View attachment 177367

Dec 2-3 looks interesting. Might end up as a cold rain but it is something to watch.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Hmmm

 

[LukeBarrette]

The GFS on the other hand is trying to make a big one for someone

 

[CaryWx]

Haha. My iphone weather icon shows a 50% chance of snow on the 6th.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Timing was off on that flat coastal the GFS was trying to drum up around 12/8. Cold air was a little late, but fantasy stuff nonetheless.


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[NCwx1992]

Haha. My iphone weather icon shows a 50% chance of snow on the 6th.

lol yep the good ole apple app is saying 2-3” for me that day

 

[Mitch West]

FAM

This is our Winter.

 

[Mitch West]

I really think we are just going to keep doing this.

And honestly it all makes perfect sense with MJO progression.

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z eps is just a conveyor belt of cold shots.

Some sort of threat will eventually appear sooner or later

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

I really think we are just going to keep doing this.

And honestly it all makes perfect sense with MJO progression.
View attachment 177416

Better looking H5 further out in time, I’ll take it…EPS just keeps moving toward a favorable pattern is very encouraging to me.


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[Rain Cold]

Better looking H5 further out in time, I’ll take it…EPS just keeps moving toward a favorable pattern is very encouraging to me.


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Been waiting on the H5 pattern to respond to the MJO progression in the longer ranges in the modeling. It's finally starting to happen. As Webber said, a threat or two will emerge.

Then, we probably get another assault on the SPV in December. I think the Southeast is in for a good winter, and all those straight Nina climo winter outlooks are on the verge of some serious trouble.

Always nice to see the biggest - departures on our side of the globe. Strap in and remember to keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times!

 

[Arcc]

FAM

This is our Winter.

 

[jrips27]

Wen torch?

 

[Snowfan]

Wen torch?

View attachment 177420

January

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Wen torch?

View attachment 177420

That doesn’t look cold at all. No temps below 32 at night and highs mostly in the 50s. I’m ready for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

 

[Stevo24]

That doesn’t look cold at all. No temps below 32 at night and highs mostly in the 50s. I’m ready for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

lol those days are few and far between even in a really good winter.

 

[Mitch West]

That doesn’t look cold at all. No temps below 32 at night and highs mostly in the 50s. I’m ready for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

Move North homie

 

[Mitch West]

 

[olhausen]

That doesn’t look cold at all. No temps below 32 at night and highs mostly in the 50s. I’m ready for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

Probably should move in with Tarheel then

 

[superjames1992]

I saw light snow and a dusting or so on the ground when I was driving near Winterplace on I-77 earlier in southern WV. 25 degrees at 1pm!!

 

[weather nerd]

If anyone has access to the 64 member Google WeatherNext 2, can you please post it's similar charts for the temperature anomalies and heights.. it's outperforming other traditional modeling right now

 

[ChrisAMB]

That doesn’t look cold at all. No temps below 32 at night and highs mostly in the 50s. I’m ready for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.

You live at 32°N. Need to get closer to 35° for that.