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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

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The thing that sticks out the most on the CMC is how our HP is well OTS at hr 84 and GA is still getting slammed with ice. Just goes to show the true potential of what could happen if the precip gets in here fast enough.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The thing that sticks out the most on the CMC is how our HP is well OTS at hr 84 and GA is still getting slammed with ice. Just goes to show the true potential of what could happen if the precip gets in here fast enough.
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Went back and looked. Both models have precip arriving about the same time (CMC maybe a hair faster) 2m temps on CMC are just much colder
 
So who's more believable? The GFS running warm or the CMC running cold?
 
Clown map. Similar one was posted for the Dec 27-29 event early on, which turned out to be nothing at all. It's the weather and anything can happen, and probably will this far out. Doubt that ice map comes close to verifying. Pray to god it doesn't!!!
 
tractor girl said:
Clown map. Similar one was posted for the Dec 27-29 event early on, which turned out to be nothing at all. It's the weather and anything can happen, and probably will this far out. Doubt that ice map comes close to verifying. Pray to god it doesn't!!!
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The Canadian has been insistent (even it's ensembles, along with GEFS ensembles). We are much closer to this "ice" thing, than we were during those other storm runs.
 
Cmc tends to do a better in wedges. But it's solution looks odd NAM had a closed ULL. Lol
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Didn't someone say the GFS struggles to correctly depict CAD before we mostly lost the 27-29th storm?
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It is a long running belief with general historical reference the globals particularly the GFS and Euro struggle more so than NAM and CMC, the reason the last event 27th failed was not due to temp or CAD and more then high pressure that suppressed that system to oblivion won't have that problem this time it's all timing and just how cold lays in place
 
It's over by hour 90:

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To go with the above, the GEFS Control member is anchoring that high in about like the 84 hour NAM had.
 
You have gfs @ cmc both open vort getting moisture in here about same time. Cmc holds cold in longer and history says would be correct way more than gfs. Seen to many cad situations like this.

Then you have the nam closing the vort and will most likely fizzle or ride down into gom. In this camp ukie 0z is a smash or squash job as well. Both would not get moisture in NC cad areas in time or at all imo.
 
The German squashes it also.
 
malak05 said:
It is a long running belief with general historical reference the globals particularly the GFS and Euro struggle more so than NAM and CMC, the reason the last event 27th failed was not due to temp or CAD and more then high pressure that suppressed that system to oblivion won't have that problem this time it's all timing and just how cold lays in place
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I'm well aware of why we lost that other storm, I was just asking for clarification to make sure I was right about models underestimating temps.
 
These were the 12z Canadian ensembles. There are a few members on here that show this shouldn't be ignored, such as member 02. Scary!

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CMC seems to have the wedge placement a little off. At least up here it would be expanded a little more west. It does not look like it includes the valleys east of the apps and west o the blue ridge and they are the areas that normally hold the longest.
 
Local mets here are thinking we may get a little icy Sunday night, but currently don't think it's going to be a huge issue once the warm temps push in.

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Still just comes down to timing, timing, timing! The cold will be here, IF it gets here before daybreak! Future radar on local news shows it getting to GSP between 5-7 AM. If it's heavy enough, could be pretty bad before it warms up, ground is frozen!
 
jaymackd3 said:
Local mets here are thinking we may get a little icy Sunday night, but currently don't think it's going to be a huge issue once the warm temps push in.

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That map is laughable at best, looks like a first grader drew it, looks like a blizzard in GA (not), then I love the thin strip of rain approaching the western suburbs of Atl, if anything with a CAD it will be much colder over GA, If anything happens at all,,,
 
BPATL said:
That map is laughable at best, looks like a first grader drew it, looks like a blizzard in GA (not), then I love the thin strip of rain approaching the western suburbs of Atl, if anything with a CAD it will be much colder over GA, If anything happens at all,,,
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Yeah the layering they do is pretty bad but I think the blizzard you are talking about in GA isn't snow...that's just the cloud cover. I don't know why they have to get all fancy with the layers and colors either.
 
For reference over next few days on climo and temps, many of the short range models at 48 hours match up with the NAM/CMC on temps compared to the GFS it's currently the warmest of all models
 
What exactly is causing our shortwave to be suppressed in the first place? It doesn't seem to be any northern stream influence like the NYD debacle had.
 
I think the point of this thread was to try to get this ice threat to go away anyway...

But yeah I'm not exactly understanding why this would be suppressed (without looking at the run myself, which I may do in a short period). This is literally coming right at a moderation period. It shouldn't be suppressed.

(I at least would like to see a little rain as I'm tired of it being dry)
 
CMC supressed! :(
Doesn't make since
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Forsyth, start a thread for the late January thaw and maybe it will bust.

Brick I didn't snow hole you. No need to be mad at me
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Nah, has to get to there first. We have to be 3 days from a warm-up. I really do hope this storm flops and doesn't do much. There is still support for some front end icing regardless it seems so there is still going to be something.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Nah, has to get to there first. We have to be 3 days from a warm-up. I really do hope this storm flops and doesn't do much. There is still support for some front end icing regardless it seems so there is still going to be something.
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I agree, on set ice seems to be likely for some. And that alone fits this thread.
 
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